AN INTERNATIONAL WARNING ABOUT THE ESCALATION OF THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT: IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT GAS FLOWS
(There is more than enough energy in all forms to supply the world 1000 times over. This glut for shortages and price gorging is manipulative and very deceptive. It just that who controls the energy and how do they manipulate the prices keeping it from us. I can hardly believe how stupid the EU was in managing our energy supply. There was no reason for the shortages if only we had common sense people running our governments. Who are you going to VOTE for?)
The International Energy Agency expects global demand for natural gas to grow this year (2024), but warned of price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
According to a recent report, high inventory levels, along with improved supply expectations, provide some reassurance to gas markets during 2024, but geopolitical uncertainty represents a major risk.
The report pointed out that the continued Russian invasion of Ukraine, escalating tensions in the Middle East, increasing restrictions on shipping, delays in liquefied natural gas projects, and adverse weather conditions as factors that could cause fluctuations in the markets during 2024.
Despite the increasing geopolitical uncertainty, global gas demand is trending to grow by about 2.5%, or the equivalent of 100 billion cubic metres.
Demand for Natural Gas
Lower gas prices in 2023 and expectations of colder winter weather in 2024 will lead global demand to grow to a total of 4.19 trillion cubic meters this year, compared to 4.089 trillion cubic meters in 2023, according to the quarterly gas market report issued by the International Energy Agency on Friday, January 26. / January 2023.
In 2023, global gas demand rose by just 0.5%, with growth in China, North America, Africa and the Middle East offset by declines elsewhere.
Demand for natural gas in China rebounded during 2023 by 7%, with the return of economic activity, after recovering from the restrictions of the Corona pandemic, so that Beijing regained its position as the largest importer of liquefied natural gas in the world.
In contrast, natural gas consumption in Europe fell by 7%, reaching the lowest level since 1995, with the rapid expansion of renewable energy, increased availability of nuclear power, and rationalization regulations.
The International Energy Agency expects demand in Europe to grow by 3% during 2024, but it will remain about 20% below pre-energy crisis levels in 2021.
Global natural gas production rose to 4.116 trillion cubic meters in 2023, compared to 4.105 trillion cubic meters the previous year, according to the International Energy Agency.
On the supply side, gas availability remained relatively limited during 2023, as the increase in global production of liquefied natural gas was less than expected, and production growth was not sufficient to compensate for the continued decline in pipelined Russian gas supplies to Europe.
Moreover, supply growth has been highly geographically concentrated, with the United States becoming the largest exporter of LNG globally, accounting for 80% of additional LNG supply in 2023.
US exports of liquefied natural gas.
The International Energy Agency expects liquefied gas supplies to grow by 3.5% this year, much lower than the growth rate of 8% between 2016 and 2020, noting that the delay in new liquefaction stations and problems surrounding the availability of feed gas – delivered gas For liquefaction plants – in existing projects, this may lead to postponement of supply growth until 2025.
For this reason, it is possible that the growth in demand for gas and the tight supply could contribute significantly to price fluctuations throughout the year, according to the report.
The International Energy Agency warned that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could significantly affect liquefied natural gas flows, especially since Qatar represents a fifth of global liquefied gas supplies.
Qatar had announced that its tankers would temporarily stop transiting through the Suez Canal, noting that the crisis in the Red Sea amid the Houthi attacks may affect the scheduling of some shipments, but it stressed its commitment to its customers.
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