Middle East Stabilization Challenged by Palestinian-Israeli Conflict
In the midst of a fragile calm in the Middle East and North Africa, the recent aggression by Hamas against Israel has stirred the waters, threatening the nascent stability that was gradually taking root in the region. Iraq, a nation that has endured the tempestuous winds of conflict for years, was beginning to see glimmers of economic improvement and stability. However, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has ignited a wave of pro-Palestinian protests across Iraq, throwing the nation’s delicate equilibrium into turmoil.
Solidarity and Threats
Iraqi Prime Minister, in an impassioned response to the crisis, has expressed staunch solidarity with the Palestinian cause, decrying Israeli aggression. This sentiment is echoed by Iraq’s Iran-backed militias, the Badr Organization and Kataib Hezbollah, who have shown support for the attacks and even threatened to target American interests if the US intervenes. But these threats, according to experts, are likely more theatrics than a real intent for escalation. Strategic ambiguity and unlikely conditions for escalation seem to underscore these declarations. However, the Iraqi government’s limited influence over these militias complicates its ability to intervene and manage the situation.
The American Dilemma
The situation has put the United States in a precarious position. With the potential for escalation and mounting pressure on the militias to act, the US must navigate the delicate path of addressing the plight of the Palestinian people without endorsing or tolerating acts of atrocity. The accountability of those who commit war crimes is paramount in reversing the dangerous trend of targeting civilians. As a moderating influence, the US has the opportunity to contribute to deescalation while supporting Israel’s right to protect itself against Hamas.
Israel’s Response and The West Bank Crisis
For Israel, the primary objective is to incapacitate Hamas from repeating such attacks. However, the imposition of a near-total blockade on Gaza and inflicting collective punishment on its population only strengthens Hamas’s control and could potentially trigger a protracted, bloody conflict that Hamas and its Iranian patrons desire. Israel must tread carefully to avoid repeating the mistakes of the US following 9/11, where the response to al-Qaida led to costly wars and unforeseen consequences.
Meanwhile, the situation in the West Bank is fraught with escalating tensions. Clashes between Palestinians and Israeli forces, increasing settler violence and a growing sense of anger are fueling a volatile atmosphere. Palestinians, feeling unprotected against Israeli hostilities, feel compelled to defend themselves, thereby contributing to the cycle of violence.
The Palestinian Authority’s Concerns
In the midst of this chaos, the Palestinian Authority (PA) is wary of the possibility of forced transfer and the impact of the conflict on the Palestinian right to return. The PA has no desire to govern Gaza if Israel succeeds in dismantling Hamas, for they do not wish for Israel’s war on Hamas to pave their way to leadership in Gaza. The PA underscores the need for a comprehensive resolution to the Palestinian issue, bringing an end to the occupation, and the establishment of a sovereign, independent state of Palestine.
In conclusion, the recent attack by Hamas has disrupted the slow path to stabilization in the Middle East and North Africa, with Iraq experiencing some economic improvement and stability. The response from Iraq’s militias and the sentiments of the Iraqi people are overwhelmingly pro-Hamas and anti-Israel. The US and Israel must find ways to address the suffering of the Palestinian people while avoiding escalation and holding actors accountable for war crimes. The situation in the West Bank is also tense, with Palestinians feeling the need to defend themselves and increasing settler violence. The Palestinian Authority emphasizes the need for a comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue and an end to the occupation.
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