AMONG THEM THE COLLAPSE OF THE DINAR… REPORT: THREE ECONOMIC CARDS IN TRUMP’S HAND TO “UNDERMINE” MALIKI’S RULE
A press report published by the Al-Sharq Economic website on Thursday, January 29, 2026, identified what it described as “economic pressure points” that US President Donald Trump could use to “undermine” Nouri al-Maliki’s rule, should he assume the premiership.
The report, which was followed by “Al-Jabal”, said that “Baghdad’s calculations regarding the possible return of Nouri al-Maliki to the Iraqi government have turned 180 degrees after the US president explicitly threatened Iraq that if al-Maliki, known for his leanings towards Tehran, were to enter the government through the door, US protection would immediately leave through the window.”
The website analyzed US President Donald Trump’s tweet in which he rejected al-Maliki’s nomination, saying that “Trump, who is known for his sharp tone, used three explicit threats in his tweet to express his opposition to al-Maliki’s election: no more aid to Iraq if he wins, no chance for Baghdad to succeed, and the country may sink into chaos and poverty.”
The report continued, “This threat should not be read in isolation, but rather within a much broader economic context where the United States already has cards above and below the table that it can use to pressure—and even paralyze—any government in Baghdad that is not to Trump’s liking, and oil, which finances about 90% of the state’s revenues, is at the heart of this equation.”
The report recalled al-Maliki’s rule, noting that it “witnessed a gradual negative shift in economic cooperation with Washington. In his early years, Iraq benefited from a high influx of oil revenues, but weak oversight of the banking system made the country an easy environment for dollar leakage, especially after the tightening of US sanctions on Iran. This put Baghdad on a collision course with Washington’s financial priorities, according to the British newspaper, the Financial Times. In the energy sector, despite launching major oil licensing rounds after 2009, the government tended to diversify partnerships towards Chinese and Russian companies, while Iraq continued its almost complete dependence on Iranian gas and electricity. This limited US influence and was reflected in the cooling of financial cooperation and the growth of Iranian influence at the time—a scenario that Washington fears will be repeated if al-Maliki returns to power.”
The website quoted economist Abdul Rahman Al-Sheikhly as saying that “if Maliki wins, there will be complications for the Americans in realizing the extent of Maliki’s ties to Iran, and this contradicts the American desire to cut off any communication between Baghdad and Tehran.”
However, Abdul Rahman Al-Mashhadani, a professor of international finance at the Iraqi University, disagrees with Al-Sheikhli’s analysis, as he believes – according to what was reported by Al-Sharq – that “the victory of Al-Maliki – or anyone else – will not affect those interests; because Al-Maliki will take into account that all centers of power are now concentrated in the hands of Washington, and he is unable to do without them.”
The report identified three economic cards that it said Trump could use to “play on Iraq’s nerves”: Iraqi oil money protected by a decision of the US president, as the United States has effectively controlled Iraqi oil revenues since the 2003 invasion by managing them through the Federal Reserve. The aim of this step at the time was to protect Baghdad from sanctions and accumulated issues from the era of former regime leader Saddam Hussein. Iraq’s oil export revenues in 2024 amounted to more than $95 billion, according to data from the Central Bank of Iraq.
As for the second paper, according to Al-Sharq, it is: “Restricting dollar transfers to Iraq, as happened in the last three years, when Washington sanctioned banks on the pretext of money laundering and financing terrorism, and to this day these banks are still subject to the sanctions imposed by the US Treasury Department and the US Federal Reserve.”
The third and final point, according to the website, is: “Indirectly causing the collapse of the Iraqi dinar and worsening social conditions by restricting access to the dollar, which will fuel inflation, especially since Iraq, during the two decades following the invasion, was unable to build an agricultural or industrial base that would meet the needs of the local market. 90% of the market’s needs are imported with hard currency, even those imported from neighboring Arab countries such as the UAE.”
The report stated, “Besides that, there are other indirect sources of pressure that Washington can use to besiege Iraq, most notably the threat of military aid. More than 70% of the Iraqi army’s armament is still of American origin, whether through new contracts or what the American army left behind after withdrawing from Iraq.”
The website quoted political researcher Nabil Al-Azzawi as saying in this context that “the coordinating framework that nominated Maliki must read Donald Trump’s message economically in light of the country’s current delicate situation, limited options, and lack of consensus.”
The report noted that “Iraqi investments in US Treasury bonds could also be restricted. According to data from the US Treasury Department, Iraq’s holdings of these bonds amounted to about $32 billion as of October 2025.”
The report continued, “According to Al-Sheikhly, another source of concern is the disruption of the work of intermediary American banks, such as Citibank and JPMorgan, which facilitate Iraqi trade and on which Baghdad relies for international transfers and the movement of funds to and from the country. Foreign investments may also be affected, as investors always seek political and security stability, which may be disrupted if Maliki assumes power against Washington’s wishes.”
Regarding the potential impact on the oil market if US threats against Iraq escalate, the Asharq report indicated that “so far, Trump’s threats against Iraq have not had any direct effects on the oil market, despite Brent crude prices rising to nearly $70 a barrel recently due to his intense pressure and military threats against Iran, something that could increase if Iraq becomes more involved in the conflict.”
The report noted that “any potential disruption to Iraqi oil flows could have a direct impact on the market, as Iraq is the second largest oil producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia, and its production comes directly after Saudi Arabia and Russia within the OPEC+ alliance.”
According to Al-Sharq report, “If Maliki’s rise to power leads to disruptions in the sector, it may absorb part of the current oil surplus in the market.”