ZIDANE: THE PARLIAMENTARY SESSION ON DECEMBER 29TH WILL DECIDE ON THE PRESIDENCY OF THE COUNCIL AND CANNOT BE EXTENDED
The head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zaidan, confirmed that the session of the new House of Representatives scheduled for December 29 must end with the appointment of the Speaker of the Council and his two deputies, noting that it is not constitutionally or legally possible to postpone or extend it.
A statement from the judiciary, a copy of which was received by Al-Furat News, stated that: “This came during the reception of the President of the Supreme Judicial Council,
Faiq Zaidan, on Saturday, by the President of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Party, Bafel Talabani.”
He added, “During the meeting, emphasis was placed on the importance of respecting the constitutional timelines for electing the three presidencies, in order to ensure the completion of the formation of the legislative and executive authorities.”
Ziad also stressed “the importance of deciding on the nomination of the candidate for the presidency of the republic within the constitutional period of thirty days after the election of the Speaker of Parliament on the 29th of this month.”
THE IRAQI ECONOMY IN 2025: PIVOTAL TRANSFORMATIONS BETWEEN AMBITION AND CHALLENGES
December 21, 2025
In 2025, Iraq witnessed a crucial turning point in its economic trajectory, as growth factors and challenges intertwined in a complex equation that defined the features of the near future. While the country achieved tangible accomplishments in vital sectors such as oil, electricity, and infrastructure, it continued to face deep structural challenges related to near-total dependence on oil, exchange market fluctuations, and a growing financial deficit.
While the International Monetary Fund predicted economic growth of 5.3%, the highest rate in years, this growth was mainly driven by the oil sector, while the non-oil sector continued to suffer from weak growth and development.
The year also witnessed widespread controversy surrounding the 2025 budget, whose schedules were delayed, and the financial deficit expanded to alarming levels, raising questions about the state’s financial sustainability.
The Central Bank of Iraq maintained a fixed official exchange rate of 1,305 dinars per dollar for most of 2025, in a strategic move aimed at controlling the market and preventing the unpredictable fluctuations witnessed in previous years. However, the parallel market witnessed significant fluctuations, with the dollar price ranging between 1,397 and 1,424 dinars at different times of the year, reflecting a continuous gap between the official and parallel rates ranging between 7% and 9%.
(Remember that the IMF wants 2% or less difference)
Despite these challenges, the Central Bank recorded important positive indicators in 2025, as the cash reserve rose to $108 billion, a record level that provides a safety cushion for the economy, and the gold reserve rose from 130 to 172 tons, indicating the diversification of reserves and strengthening confidence in the national currency.
Regarding inflation, the inflation rate fell to 2.2% in the first quarter of 2025, a relatively low rate reflecting the success of monetary policy in controlling prices. Private sector credit also grew by 1.1%, indicating an improved financial environment and increased confidence in the banking system.
GROWTH FORECASTS ARE OPTIMISTI
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the Iraqi economy will grow by 5.3% in 2025, compared to 1.4% in 2024, indicating a significant acceleration in economic activity. This growth is primarily driven by the recovery of the oil sector and increased government investment in infrastructure and services.
In a more optimistic forecast, the World Bank indicated that Iraq could achieve the highest growth rate among Arab economies, at around 6.7%, if oil prices rise to approximately $80 per barrel. However, economic experts cautioned that this scenario remains contingent on external factors beyond Iraq’s control.
NON-OIL SECTOR: SLOW GROWTH
Despite optimism about overall growth, the non-oil sector recorded modest growth of 5% in 2024, with expectations of continued growth of 4% in 2025.
This growth, while positive, still falls short of expectations and reflects the structural challenges facing productive sectors such as agriculture,
industry and tourism. The IMF report indicated that non-oil growth may not exceed 1% in some estimates, reflecting the large structural dependence on oil and the urgent need to diversify sources of economic growth.
THE 2025 BUDGET: CONTROVERSY AND COMPLICATIONS
The 2025 budget witnessed widespread controversy and significant delays in approving its schedules, even though it falls within the three-year budget for the years 2023-2025, which was approved in June 2023. The Prime Minister’s advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, estimated that the size of the 2025 budget is about 200 trillion dinars (about 150 billion dollars), with a projected deficit of about 64 trillion dinars.
According to estimates, operating expenses constitute approximately 67% to 70% of total public expenditures, comprising salaries, allowances, pensions, and social welfare. This budget structure reflects the rentier nature of the Iraqi economy, where the majority of spending goes toward salaries and current services, while investments in infrastructure and development projects remain limited.
APPROVAL DELAY CRISIS
2025 witnessed a major crisis due to the failure to approve the budget schedules, which affected provincial allocations, investment projects, and the salaries of some groups. Parliamentarians accused the government of stalling, while observers indicated that the delay stemmed from disagreements over revenue distribution between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region, as well as issues related to the costs of producing and transporting the region’s oil.
Experts warned that delaying the approval of the 2025 budget would have a direct impact on the Iraqi market, investment activity and public spending, and would increase uncertainty that harms the business environment and economic confidence.
THE GROWING DEFICIT AND DEBT The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Iraq’s budget deficit will widen to 7.6% of GDP in 2024, compared to 1.3% in 2023, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.
The Prime Minister revealed that Iraq’s total external debt exceeds $10 billion, while its domestic debt amounts to approximately 34 trillion dinars.
Al-Sudani confirmed that the new government will have to borrow due to the deficit, but stressed that the financial situation is stable thanks to large reserves.
He also announced that the number of employees in Iraq during 2025 was 4.5 million, and the number of retirees was 2.9 million, while social protection allocations amounted to 6 trillion dinars annually.
OIL PRODUCTION: COMMITMENTS AND AMBITIONS
Iraq’s crude oil production remained stable at around 4 million barrels per day for most of 2025, as Baghdad adhered to the OPEC+ voluntary production cuts. Iraq produced approximately 965 million barrels during the first eight months of 2025, generating revenues of around 73 trillion dinars, representing 90% of the country’s total revenue and underscoring its near-total dependence on oil.
Iraq pledged to compensate for its overproduction of 1.44 million barrels per day in 2024, exceeding its quota, with full compensation to be completed by September 2025. This commitment aligns with the OPEC+ production cuts and aims to maintain global price stability.
AMBITIOUS FUTURE PLANS ARE IN PLACE
In the longer term, the Ministry of Petroleum announced ambitious plans to increase production to more than 6 million barrels per day by 2029, as part of a strategy to maximize revenues and boost production capacity. This ambition requires massive investments in infrastructure, addressing associated gas issues, developing existing fields, and exploring new ones.
PRICING AND REVENUE CHALLENGES
The IMF estimates that oil revenues are set to decline from $99.2 billion in 2024 to $84.2 billion in 2025, affected by lower prices that have fallen from an average of $80.6 per barrel to $65.9.
INVESTMENTS: HUGE FIGURES AND PERSISTENT OBSTACLES
Arab and foreign investments in Iraq have exceeded $100 billion over the past two years, distributed among the housing, industry, energy, agriculture and infrastructure sectors.
These large figures reflect the government’s efforts to improve the investment environment and attract capital, and also reflect growing confidence in the country’s stability and economic opportunities.
The National Investment Commission indicated that Iraq ranked fourth among the best emerging markets in 2024, a positive indicator of the improved business climate and attractiveness of the investment environment.
INVESTMENT AND OPPORTUNITY FORUMS
The government, through the Prime Minister, announced a huge package of investment opportunities worth $450 billion, coinciding with the Iraq Investment Forum.
The Prime Minister’s advisor stressed that these steps are not just an announcement, but a roadmap for comprehensive transformation within “Iraq Vision 2050”.
This vision aims to double the gross domestic product, reduce unemployment to less than 10%, achieve 60% economic independence, and take advantage of the demographic dividend, as the population is expected to be under 30 years of age by about 60% by 2050.
FITCH RATING: CAUTIOUS INTERNATIONAL CONFIDENCE
At the international level, Iraq maintained its credit rating from Fitch Ratings at (B) with a stable outlook throughout 2025, indicating the country’s ability to meet its short- and medium-term financial obligations, despite ongoing challenges related to the structure of its economy and its dependence on oil.
According to experts, maintaining this rating is a factor that supports investor confidence and reflects an improvement in debt management and liquidity compared to previous years.
REAL CHALLENGES
Despite the large numbers, economic experts pointed out that real foreign investment is still absent from non-oil sectors, stressing that many investments classified as foreign are in fact Iraqi through companies registered abroad.
Bureaucratic, legal, and security challenges remain major obstacles to the flow of real capital. Furthermore, weak infrastructure, complex government procedures, and a lack of transparency in some areas all limit the attractiveness of the investment environment and delay the transformation of opportunities into productive projects on the ground.
Achievements of the Sudanese government: a record of service and an electoral victory
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani revealed the completion of 511 service projects, including infrastructure, roads, bridges, schools and health centers.
He also announced the resolution of the one million job gap problem and a reduction in unemployment to 2.1% during his government term, which began in October 2022.
The government implemented 43 development projects and 97 new school buildings, and provided services to areas inhabited by more than 3 million citizens. This large service record boosted the government’s popularity and paved the way for subsequent electoral victory.
BANKING SECTOR AND FINANCIAL REFORMS
The Iraqi banking sector witnessed significant reform steps in 2025, as the Central Bank worked to enhance compliance with international standards and improve financial transparency.
The government launched initiatives to develop digital banking infrastructure, encourage electronic payments, and reduce reliance on cash.
Credit to the private sector also grew by 1.1%, a positive indicator of increased confidence in the banking system.
The central bank continued its efforts to reduce the number of banks that violate international standards, and merged some small banks to enhance financial stability.
BANKING CHALLENGES
Despite the improvements, significant challenges remain, including US restrictions on some Iraqi banks, weak public confidence in the banking sector, and continued heavy reliance on cash transactions. The spread of banking culture among citizens remains limited, which limits the sector’s ability to contribute to economic development.
Environmental challenges: The water crisis and drought… the most serious crisis
The decline in water levels of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has led to a reduction in cultivated areas and a decrease in grain production in many governorates, especially in the central and southern regions.
International reports have warned that water shortages could lead to a deficit in staple crops and a higher food import bill, putting additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves and the budget. The drought also led to the displacement of some residents from rural areas to cities, increasing the pressure on urban services.
IMPORTS AND THE TRADE BALANCE
Iraq remains heavily reliant on imports to meet its needs for consumer goods and basic commodities, with its import bill reaching high levels. Reports indicate a significant non-oil trade deficit, reflecting the weakness and uncompetitiveness of domestic production sectors.
REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGES
The Iraqi economy has been affected by regional developments, particularly tensions in the region and the situations in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Complex relations with Iran and US pressure have also impacted Iraq’s economic freedom of movement.
US sanctions
The impact of US sanctions on some Iraqi banks continued, complicating financial transfers and foreign trade, and the cancellation of the exemption to purchase energy from Iran posed a major challenge to the electricity sector.
Regional comparison: Iraq’s position among Arab economies
According to the World Bank’s projections, Iraq leads the Arab region in expected growth rates for 2025 at 6.7% in the positive scenario. This puts Iraq in an advanced position among regional economies, surpassing countries such as Egypt (3%), Djibouti (5.2%), and Lebanon (4.7%).
COMMON CHALLENGES
Despite the superiority in expected growth rates, Iraq shares common challenges with the countries of the region, including dependence on a single source of income (oil or remittances), weak productive sectors, the need for structural reforms, and climate challenges.
The Iraqi economy faces three main scenarios for the near future:
1.Positive scenario: If oil prices remain at high levels (above $75), the government succeeds in implementing the planned reforms, and foreign investment flows in heavily, the economy could achieve sustainable growth exceeding 6% annually, with a tangible improvement in services and a decrease in unemployment.
2.Medium scenario: Continuation of the current situation with modest growth (4-5%), continued dependence on oil, slow progress in reforms, and ongoing challenges in attracting real investment.
3.The negative scenario: A sharp drop in oil prices (below $60), or worsening climate and water crises, or escalating regional tensions, could push the economy into recession and worsen the fiscal deficit.
Comprehensive summary: A pivotal year between ambition and reality
The year 2025 represents a turning point in the modern economic history of Iraq. On the one hand, the country achieved tangible accomplishments, including higher growth rates, increased foreign currency reserves, improved infrastructure, and the implementation of hundreds of service projects. On the other hand, the Sudanese government succeeded in achieving an electoral victory that reflects relative public satisfaction with government performance.
On the other hand, the structural challenges remained deep and serious. The near-total dependence on oil (90% of revenues) makes the economy vulnerable to global price fluctuations. The growing fiscal deficit (7.6% of GDP) raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, the water crisis and drought threaten food security and social stability, and the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates for the dollar reflects imbalances in the currency market.
The year 2025 proved that Iraq has the potential and resources to become a regional economic power, but achieving this ambition requires genuine political will, radical reforms, good governance, and a long-term strategic vision that goes beyond immediate gains and places the interests of future generations at the heart of national priorities.
STATUS OF THE RV: Why the Evidence Keeps Pointing Forward, Not Backward
According to MNT GOAT, investors should stay optimistic — but grounded. This is not the moment to pop champagne just yet, because the show is not over until it is truly over. However, the accumulation of facts, data, and real-world developments continues to build unmistakable pressure toward Iraqi dinar normalization.
The question is no longer if Iraq will complete its monetary reform — but when.
CBI Timing: Removing the Zeros Is Still on the Table
As we move through mid-December, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) still has multiple viable options on the table:
Possible Scenarios
Removal of the zeros before January, with a January release
A flexible January window — not necessarily January 1st
Continued preparation leading toward early 2026 normalization
The key takeaway: there is no single fixed date, and the CBI has strategic flexibility.
Why Early 2026 Keeps Appearing in the Data
Despite near-term optimism, the weight of evidence increasingly points toward early 2026 as the period when Iraq may fully normalize the dinar and place it back on FOREX for international trading.
This conclusion is not based on speculation alone, but on:
Economic readiness
Infrastructure completion
Revenue diversification
Private sector activation
Institutional alignment
And yes — more supporting evidence continues to emerge.
Propaganda vs Reality: The “Massive Debt” Narrative
One of the most frustrating elements for informed observers is the persistent propaganda coming from certain economists.
The Myth of “Massive Iraqi Debt”
Many articles claim Iraq is drowning in debt — but fail to explain:
❌ Contractors’ unpaid dues? No.
❌ Unpaid salaries to citizens? No.
❌ Sovereign default risk? No.
What they often label as “debt” is more accurately described as future liabilities, a very different concept.
This confusion may even stem from poor Arabic-to-English translation, where the nuance between liabilities and debt is lost.
The Rentier Economy
— And Why It’s Being Fixed
Yes, Iraq has relied heavily on oil revenues. This is known as a rentier economy.
But here’s what many economists conveniently ignore:
Iraq knows this problem
Iraq is actively correcting it
Structural reforms are already underway
As MNT GOAT reminds us:
Rome was not built in a day.
Ignored by Critics: Major Revenue-Generating Projects
What propaganda articles often fail to mention are Iraq’s game-changing projects:
Key National Projects
Development Road Project
Grand Port of Faw
Reopening of the Ceyhan oil pipeline
Customs and tariff revenue systems
Some of these projects are:
Already generating revenue
In advanced implementation stages
Capable of producing massive future income
So the question becomes: 👉 What exactly is “wrong” with that?
Why Potential Matters More Than Headlines
Most of these initiatives are less than four years old. Large-scale national projects:
Take time to reach full capacity
Gradually shift employment to the private sector
Reduce government payroll burdens
Lower long-term pension obligations
Everything is interconnected, and the system is working as designed.
And that’s before even mentioning Iraq’s vast natural resources, many of which are nearing market readiness.
Pressure Is Building — And the CBI Knows It
MNT GOAT makes a critical point:
The “gatekeepers” of Iraq and the CBI will decide when to reinstate the dinar — based on progress, not hype.
And now, increasingly, they are all concurring:
The Message Is Clear
🟢 The timing is ripe 🟢 The pressure is building 🟢 The reforms are aligning 🟢 The economy is pivoting
As stated bluntly:
They are telling us NOW IS THE TIME.
Featured Snippets (Google Discover Optimized)
🔹 Is the Iraqi dinar RV happening in January? January remains a flexible window, but growing evidence points to early 2026 for full normalization.
🔹 Does Iraq really have massive debt? Much of what is reported as “debt” is actually future liabilities, not traditional sovereign debt.
🔹 What supports dinar reinstatement? Economic diversification, infrastructure projects, private sector growth, and CBI readiness.
Q&A: STATUS OF THE RV Explained
Q: Should investors celebrate now?
A: No. Optimism is justified, but patience remains essential.
A: Many omit critical data, long-term projects, and economic potential.
Q: What’s driving pressure on the CBI?
A: Accelerating reforms, revenue growth, and structural alignment.
Final Perspective
The truth about Iraq’s economy is far more optimistic than many headlines suggest. As investors, focusing on facts, progress, and verified developments — not propaganda — is essential.
📈 The story of Iraq is being written now — and it is far from negative.
If I were you, I would keep the champagne in the frig. The show is not over until the fat lady at the circus sings….. lol.. lol.. It is mid-December and the CBI may still go ahead with removing the zeros in time for a January release or in January. Oh… but remember it does not have to happen exactly on January 1st as there are thirty-one days in the month. They could also change the plan and remove the zeros in early January and release in late January. There are options.
There is much more evidence than not that everything is pointing to early 2026 for them to normalize the dinar and place it back on FOREX to trade. Today we put together yet more evidence, again.
So much news this period and it was hard to keep up with it. There is so much real optimism and VERY GOOD news for Iraq and yet there is still lots of propaganda news. This propaganda is all silly stuff authored by silly economists about Iraq. If you notice the news articles of this type they often talk about Iraq having massive debt. Really- massive debt?
Where is all this debt I have to ask? Is it owing contractors for their dues? Is it unpaid salaries to the citizens? No, it is none of these. It is in FACT not debt but future liabilities I think perhaps they are talking about and this is much different. So maybe the translation from Arabic to English changes the meaning? Of course, there are liabilities and that is the rentier economy we read about so often. This is the point of getting off of oil as the sole sources of revenues. But we all know about this move and it is realized and is in the state of being corrected. But Rome was not built in a day…. Lol… lol… lol. .
Many of these economists also don’t want to mention the ongoing projects such as the Development Road Project, the port of Faw or the reopening of the Cyan oil pipeline that can almost double the oil revenues. Oh…. did I mention the Customs and Tariff revenues? Some of these projects and more at the implementation phases and some are generating real revenues already with potential for more, massive amounts. So, what’s so wrong with that?
So, they don’t talk much about POTENTIAL. Why is this? Most of these projects are recent within the last four years and take time to come to full capacity for revenue generation for the federal government. These projects will lessen the liabilities as they will take jobs away from the government and place them in private industry.
This will lessen the payroll files and it will also lessen govt pensions. It is a slow process. So, you see it all works together and are interconnected, and I have not even begun to mention the natural resources available that is also in the making to be marketed soon, very soon! I will leave it to the “gatekeepers” of Iraq and the CBI to decide when to reinstate the dinar based on all these new developments. They are now all concurring the time is ripe now.
So, seriously where did these Iraqi economists get their education from anyhow? Why so short-sided in their research? Yes, it is disheartening when you read these silly articles from these economists. I have made up my mind to pass over these silly articles and go directly to the progress of Iraq and instead tell the TRUE story of Iraq. As investors in the Iraqi dinar, we need to hear optimistic and truthful news and it is all optimistic let there be no mistake about it. Please go read the recent article titled “RESEARCH CENTER: IRAQ IS AT A PIVOTAL MOMENT TO ADDRESS ITS ECONOMY AND REVIVE THE PRIVATE SECTOR.”
You might also want to take a peek at the article titled “THE IRAQI ECONOMY IN 2025: PIVOTAL TRANSFORMATIONS BETWEEN AMBITION AND CHALLENGES”. It is a very long read, but addresses so much about the Iraqi economy and where it is going. It is not decades but maybe just a few years at most. The reinstatement will help them to get there. Remember I told you that at some point the pressure will build with all the progress Iraq is making. I did not know this point and can only rely on what my contact in the CBI along with the articles were telling us. They are telling us NOW IS THE TIME!
It is mid-December and the CBI may still go ahead with removing the zeros in time for a January release or in January. Oh… but remember it does not have to happen exactly on January 1st as there are thirty-one days in the month. They could also change the plan and remove the zeros in early January and release in late January. There are options.