Saturday, May 4, 2024
Iraq's most stable period in 30 years: Closer ties with Ankara, waning relations with Washington, 5 MAY
Iraq's most stable period in 30 years: Closer ties with Ankara, waning relations with Washington, 5 MAY
Shafaq News / The Atlantic Council Institute provided an analysis on the first visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Iraq in over a decade, and his first visit as President, following years of strained relations.
This visit has paved the way for a new phase of strategic cooperation in vital areas such as energy, trade, and security, amidst a backdrop of dwindling confidence in Baghdad and Ankara regarding American influence in the region.
The report suggested that the "convergence of interests between Ankara and Baghdad could lead to Iraq experiencing its most stable period since Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. Erdogan's visit has laid the groundwork for enhancing regional stability and prosperity, with indirect ramifications for the Kurdistan Region."
Describing the past decade's Iraqi-Turkish relations as fraught, due to contentious issues like the legal battle over Kurdistan Region oil exports via pipelines to Turkiye, Turkish military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) on Iraqi soil, and disputes over water flow from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, the report noted that "amidst the Middle East's upheavals, there is a growing recognition among Turkish and Iraqi leaders of the need to protect their interests and support stability through regional cooperation."
The report indicated that the United States and Iran indirectly played a role in prompting the visit. "Despite Iraq's public calls for the withdrawal of U.S. forces, it still relies on Washington for counterterrorism aid and financial assistance. However, Baghdad seeks to reduce this dependence by bolstering security and developmental cooperation with Turkiye and the Gulf states."
Simultaneously, the report suggested that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani must "carefully manage Iranian influence while balancing or diminishing it, and developing relations with Turkiye represents another dimension of this strategy."
The report quoted an observer in Erbil stating that "the symbolic purpose of the Iraqi visit is to demonstrate Baghdad's fruitful relationships with its northern and southern neighbors, not just its dominant eastern neighbor."
It also cites a commentator likening Baghdad's relationship with Turkiye to the historical significance of the gates built by Abbasid Caliph Abu Jaafar al-Mansour, particularly the gate facing Khurasan, suggesting that "Baghdad's gate was not solely open to Iran and Khurasan."
The report suggested that waning confidence in American plans for the region provides Turkiye and Iraq, both U.S. allies, with additional incentives for cooperation. "However, skepticism exists among Iraqis and Turks regarding U.S. commitment to stability, sovereignty, and democracy in the region, while regional observers question whether the U.S. has militarily deterred Iran in Iraq or Syria, or if it is even capable of doing so."
Furthermore, the report called attention to the fact that the United States has backed a major development and transportation project, the Indian Corridor, surpassing both Turkiye and Iraq.
It asserted that countering the Indian Corridor project has spurred efforts to recalibrate bilateral relations between Baghdad and Ankara, with a focus on the "Development Road" project linking the large Faw Port in Basra governorate to global markets via Turkiye, with investment from Qatar and the UAE, thus integrating Iraq into regional and global economic networks.
Amidst approximately three agreements between Baghdad and Ankara, the report suggested that from Turkiye's perspective, "cooperation and legal clearance for its operations against the PKK constitute the most urgent area for tangible progress."
The report noteed positive portrayals of the visit in Iraqi and Turkish media, with Turkish reports emphasizing Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's diplomatic finesse and strategic resolve, focusing on potential mutual economic gains and highlighting the expected benefits of the "Development Road" project, such as its potential to erode the PKK's control over vast areas in northern Iraq. Iraqi media stress the long-standing problems that need resolution and the wide-ranging possibilities for development and improved relations. ;
Kurdish coverage of the visit applauds officials and experts for Turkish engagement in Iraq, underscoring Ankara's need to maintain robust relations with Erbil and Baghdad to prevent the exclusion of the Kurdistan Region from the benefits of close ties.
The report asserted that "this clear new chapter in bilateral relations has boundaries and entails risks. One limitation is the Iraqi government's limited ability to access the PKK, given its restricted military and intelligence resources in remote border areas where the PKK is active."
"There are possibilities that Baghdad may offer potential support for countering the PKK to persuade Ankara to reduce its support for the Kurdistan Regional Government, but such a possibility poses a strategic risk that Ankara must be cautious about, as the close relationship between Ankara and Erbil has brought significant economic and security benefits to both."
The report also cited continued Iranian influence in Baghdad and doubts about Turkish influence there, something its allies and clients will certainly seek to minimize.
"The Development Road adds a new economic dynamic to the bilateral equation, making the promise of enhanced neighborhood relations more substantial than previous expressions of intent."
It further asserted that within the increasingly turbulent regional framework, coupled with the new Gulf-backed economic project, the current axis may indeed be significant strategically, potentially leading to Iraq's most stable period between neighbors since Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.
"RV UPDATEBY PAULETTE, 5 MAY
Paulette
Article: "Specialist: Floating the dinar is economic suicide" As Saleh was stating but only stronger wording.
Article: "Al-Ardawi: The Sudanese government seeks to liberalize the Iraqi dinar and stabilize the economy" Quote: "The visit comes in a very heated situation and everyone is awaiting its outcomes, and the Sudanese carries...ideas and projects that move towards consolidating the relationship with the American side and transferring it from the process of guardianship to friendship...In a way that allows Iraq to assume its pivotal role in the region." As I have been stating...Iraq needs the US Guardianship to end!! (UN 1483)
Article quote: "Two Iraqi and American sources said that Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani will spend a week in the United States, including discussions with President Joe Biden, and a tour of 3 states." Will one State be Florida???? Mar-a-Lago???
IMO UN resolution 1483 will have to be lifted to allow Iraq to be totally sovereign as it established the US and UK as "occupying forces"...This is in essence "Guardianship" or "Receivership"...Absent the lifting, the US has to give Iraq permission to do most anything Internationally including "currency reinstatement"...I am hopeful that internal control of the money structure is exclusively in the hands of the CBI so they can at least move to the RD/RV stage of their monetary reform... If not, the upcoming US visit of Sudani may very well be pivotal... Saleh...recently stated he was unsure of the status of 1483 according to news articles...
This is clearly what the article said... They are weighing changing the rate from 1,320 dinars per dollar to 1.32 dinars per dollar. This is clearly 76 cents to 1 IQD...Currently the rate is 1,320 IQD to 1 USD. Looking it at the other way, this is 0.0007575 USD to 1 IQD. If they drop 1 zero from the exchange rate: 132.0 IQD to 1 USD or 0.007575 USD to 1 IQD. If they drop 2 zeros: 13.2 IQD to 1 USD or 0.07575 USD to 1 IQD. If they drop 3 zeros: 1.32 IQD to 1 USD or .7575 USD to 1 IQD. Therefore, 1.32 IQD to 1 USD is 76 cents to each IQD
...What we want to see posted on the CBI website as to how many IQD are required to purchase 1 USD is 1.00 or less. If they post 3.22 IQD to 1 USD, this would mean 31 cents per 1 IQD.
We want them to post .31 IQD to 1 USD which is then 3.22 USD to 1 IQD. Realize, they post how many IQD it takes to purchase 1 of another currency.
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/03/rv-update-by-paulette-14-march.html
Community Comment: "...The rate doesn't matter but "freedom of movement of capital" is important. That is Article 8 compliance." They cannot be Article 8 compliant if the country is functioning under a MCP. A MCP [Multiple Currency Practices] includes a parallel rate of greater than 2% of the official rate by IMF definition. Saleh said last year that the parallel rate is "REQUIRED" to be 2% or less of the official rate...This 2% or less needs to be maintained for a period of 90 days. The parallel rate is still around 14% difference.
Question: "I thought they met all the requirements [to join the WTO]?" All the articles say they have legislation that needs to be passed and the next meeting is in the "middle of the year.
Question: "When is Iraq supposed to be in the WTO?" Not before they pass needed legislation, eliminate the MCP [Multiple Currency Practices] and are recognized as having accepted IMF Article 8 obligations. Accession Committee next meeting with Iraq is planned for the "middle of the year".
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/03/rv-update-by-paulette-11-march.html
Revealing the latest updates on the change in the exchange rate and barrel of oil in the budget of 2024, 4 MAY
Revealing the latest updates on the change in the exchange rate and barrel of oil in the budget of 2024, 4 MAY
Mawazine News – Baghdad
Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Planning Committee, Mohammed Karim, confirmed today, Thursday, that this year’s budget will proceed after completing the changes in its schedules for the allocations of provincial and ministries projects only.
“The exchange rate of the dollar, the barrel of oil and the quantity exported will remain the same as confirmed by last year’s budget,” Karim told Mawazine News.
He pointed out that “the tripartite budget approved by the Sudanese government and approved by the House of Representatives allowed the government to make changes and amendments imposed by the impact after the parliament vote.
”
He pointed out that “changes to the schedules will include the projects of ministries and governorates in accordance with the requirements of the government program.”
https://www.mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=247191
"RV UPDATE" BY WALKINGSTICK, 4 MAY
Walkingstick
Question: "What's the next major step that has to happen?"
We're looking for Sudani to make an announcement...They're going to come out and talk to them. It'll happen pretty much at the same time. It is leading up to that event.
[Iraqi Bank owner colleague #1][Iraqi Bank owner colleague #1]
The results from the meeting #1 was having with the CBI these last few weeks all of that information is now coming to the citizens 'to be revealed'. That's happening right now...a massive campaign of education to the citizens. This phase is talking to the citizens.
The new exchange rate is determined by the CBI on behalf of the GOI...
-------
Question: "Will Aki
[Walkingstick's Iraqi Bank owner here in the US]
exchange dinars for US citizens at his bank?"
Yes! That's the whole purpose.
FRANK26: SAYS
Walking Stick was on the phone with Frank during the subway. The head of Walking Sticks, who owns banks and ATMs in Iraq and Jordan, and his friend who runs his bank in Dearborn, Michigan, are at this big meeting at the CBI, with the 964-person delegation that was in D.C. Everyone is in this meeting.
It is the Arab Monetary Fund, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, all the companies and investors who have contracts are saying these words, about lower banknotes and a new exchange rate. Everyone knows that the exchange rate is about to change. Eddie said on television saying The budget will come to Parliament next week. Walking Stick and Frank believe that the exchange rate will rise and force parliament to hold an emergency session. Then Parliament would have to vote. There is too great a possibility of insider trading (parliament are criminals). Walking Stick says Sudani wants this now. Promises must be kept. Do you remember that they audited the banks? Maliki's State of Law Party tried to raise $600
Millions of dollars. The entire party is being shut down by the IMF, the FMA and the CBI. They were funneling funds to Iran across the border into Iran for their own enrichment. They and the private banks were closed. That's why they think that with all the corruption, they will have to announce the new exchange rate and the parliament will hold an emergency vote (after the exchange rate change). The CBI determines the exchange rate.
Sudani and CBI are working together. Those sanctions were lifted in time for a
Change of fee. Everyone at those meetings will be on stage with Sudani, including the two friends from Walking Sticks. Walking Stick says Sudani will make the presentation, and this will happen after that. Sudani wants it now, everyone is there waiting. It shouldn't take long.
-All credit to Frank and his team!
TRANSLATE SPANISH
Miércoles 24 Abril 2024
In the document.. Barzani informs the Sudanese with the participation of the Iraqi Trade Bank to localize the salaries of the Kurdistan region, 4 MAY
The fourth – Baghdad
The President of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Masrour Barzani, informed Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa Al-Sudani, in agreement with the Iraqi Trade Bank, to participate in the settlement of the salaries of the Kurdistan Region, as a government bank.
https://alrabiaa.tv/article/85842/85842-بالوثيقة..-بارزاني-يبلغ-السوداني-بمشاركة-المصرف-العراقي-للتجارة-بتوطين-رواتب-إقليم-كردستان
HOW ARE INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE RATE SET? BY GOLDILOCKS, 4 MAY
HOW ARE INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE RATE SET?
A floating rate is determined by the open market through supply and demand on global currency markets.
"Leveling the playing field" in all currencies does not mean they will all be the same price.
Therefore, if the demand for the currency is high, the value will increase. If demand is low, this will drive that currency price lower.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/forex/how-forex-exchange-rates-set.asp#:~:text=A%20floating%20rate%20is%20determined,drive%20that%20currency%20price%20lower.
Al-Sudani: We are working to create job opportunities, 4 MAY
Al-Sudani: We are working to create job opportunities
Prime Minister, Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani, said that Iraq has begun to move to the stage of production and infrastructure construction.
Al-Sudani added that the government is working to stimulate the economy, create job opportunities, confront challenges, and consolidate sovereignty link
Among them is Iraq. US oil imports from 5 Arab countries exceed $ 3.6 billion
Economy News - Follow-up
U.S. oil imports declined slightly in the first quarter of 2024, with five Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq, accounting for a share of nearly 8% of the world's largest oil consumer imports.
US crude oil imports amounted to about 572.29 million barrels (6.28 million barrels per day) during the first quarter of 2024, compared to 574.25 million barrels (6.38 million barrels per day) during the same period in 2023, according to recent data seen by the Energy Research Unit (based in Washington).
While the volume of US oil imports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Libya, Kuwait and the UAE reached about 45.2 million barrels during the first quarter of 2024, representing 7.9% of the total US imports during the first 3 months of this year.
The value of US imports from the 5 Arab countries reached about $ 3.68 billion during the first quarter of 2024, according to data collected and analyzed by the Energy Research Unit.
U.S. Oil Imports from Arab Countries
Saudi Arabia, as usual, came in first place in the list of the largest Arab oil exporters to the United States, with the volume of its exports reaching 25.43 million barrels during the first quarter of 2024, with a total value of $ 2.13 billion.
Iraq also ranked second with an export volume of 13.37 million barrels, or the equivalent of $ 1.02 billion, and Libya ranked third with exports reaching 3.67 million barrels, with a total value of $ 318.4 million.
The value of US oil imports from 5 Arab countries in the first quarter of 2024
On the other hand, Kuwait ranked fourth on the list, with exports to the United States amounting to about 1.74 million barrels during the first quarter of 2024, with a value equivalent to $ 126.5 million.
The UAE came in fifth place with exports of 0.99 million barrels during the first quarter, or about $81 million, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The exports of the 5 Arab countries to the United States recorded 235 million barrels, or the equivalent of $ 19 billion, during 2023, equivalent to 10.1% of America's total imports of crude oil, according to annual data collected published by the Energy Research Unit on February 8.
Arab Oil Exports in March 2024
US oil imports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Libya increased during March 2024, compared to the previous month (February), while imports from Iraq decreased.
The volume of Saudi oil exports to the United States rose to 9.82 million barrels in March 2024, compared to about 6.56 million barrels in February.
Libyan oil exports also rose to 2.06 million barrels during March 2024, compared to about 0.91 million barrels during the previous month.
The following graph - prepared by the Energy Research Unit - shows the volume of US oil imports from 5 Arab countries in the first quarter of 2024:
The volume of US oil imports from 5 Arab countries in the first quarter of 2024
Kuwait's exports to the United States also increased to 0.96 million barrels in March, after its absence from exports during the previous month, which was repeated in the case of the UAE, whose exports in March amounted to about 0.99 million barrels compared to zero in February 2024.
As for Iraq's exports, they fell to 4.06 million barrels during March 2024, compared to about 4.4 million barrels during the previous month, according to detailed data monitored by the Energy Research Unit from the US Census Bureau.
U.S. Oil Imports in March 2024
The volume of US oil imports increased by 2.7% month-on-month to 185.21 million barrels (5.97 million barrels per day) in March 2024, compared to 180.21 million barrels (6.21 million barrels per day) during the previous February.
While another side of the comparative data showed a decrease in US oil imports during March 2024 by 7% year-on-year compared to the same month (199.25 million barrels) of 2023.
The value of imports in March 2024 also decreased to $ 12.85 billion, despite the increase in the average price to $ 69.39 per barrel, compared to about $ 13.42 billion during the same month of 2023, when the average was $ 67.38 per barrel.
On the other hand, the volume of US crude oil exports decreased by 11.2% to 132.91 million barrels (4.28 million barrels per day) in March 2024, compared to 149.68 million barrels (4.82 million barrels per day) during the same month of 2023, according to another aspect of the data analyzed by the Energy Research Unit.
" Iraq's transition to the international stage." BY JACK STRAW VIA TWITTER, 4 MAY
Iraq's transition to the international stage
The Iraqi government has successfully wrapped up numerous strategic and developmental initiatives, notably including the completion of the Grand Al-Faw Port and Karbala Refinery. They've also initiated the Basra-Shalmaja railway project to bolster connectivity with neighboring Iran. Further, the government is steadfast in its commitment to advancing the Development Road project, envisioning Iraq as a pivotal hub for global trade between the east and west. Additionally, plans are underway for an integrated network of main roads, overpasses, and bridges aimed at alleviating traffic congestion and streamlining travel from the southernmost regions to the north. In the realm of energy, Iraq has sealed contracts for its fifth licensing round and partnered with the renowned French company TotalEnergies for the implementation of four substantial oil, gas, and renewable energy ventures. The launch of the sixth licensing round underscores the government's dedication to curbing the harmful practice of gas flaring. All the pieces are aligning for Iraq's transition to the international stage. The new salaries remain undisclosed, and the flow of black gold into Turkey has yet to commence. Why is that? Because they have not revealed an internationally recognized exchange rate. Rumors suggest it could be set at $3.90, but nothing has been confirmed.Tishwash: American newspaper: The United Nations is “collapsing” and three countries lead a move to form a “new world order”, 4 MAY
American newspaper: The United Nations is “collapsing” and three countries lead a move to form a “new world order”, 4 MAY
The American newspaper The Cradle revealed, in an analysis published today, Friday (May 3, 2024), the existence of what it described as “major movements” being undertaken by three countries to “secure the future of the world” with the imminent expected collapse of the United Nations system as a result of the influence exercised by the United States. On the United Nations and the subsequent “destruction” that befell the world.
The newspaper said, according to what “Baghdad Today” translated, that China, Iran and Russia are now making actual and unprecedented moves to create a “new world order” based on the BRICS economic system, as an alternative to the American-Western SWIFT system, with the aim of securing the world from the possible collapse of the economic system as a result of... “Corruption” of the United Nations and the influence of the United States on its decisions.
She continued, "Russia hosted UNRWA and provided it with economic support to continue funding humanitarian efforts in Palestine after attempts by Israel and America to stop its funding. China and Iran also followed Russia's steps by hosting Palestinian parties in ongoing efforts to unify them towards establishing an official Palestinian state."
The newspaper confirmed that the old world order is now “collapsing” under “the weight of the corruption of the United Nations and the United States’ complete control over its decisions without concern for the rest of the world’s countries, including the continued support and protection of the Israeli regime, which prompted the three countries to move to establish a new system that protects the world from regimes and leaders.” Genocide and their control,” according to her description.
The United States, according to the newspaper’s description, is “now losing” its influence to China, which is now “questioning the United States and its ability publicly through the international level, such as questioning it regarding its insistence on preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state and its silence regarding the genocide committed publicly by Israel, in addition to the terrorist attack on Nord Stream transmission line in Europe.
The American Cradle announced that the BRICS system will soon become the “new United Nations” in the world, which will make the United States and its Western allies lose control over the current international system that relies on the United Nations, explaining, “What is also happening is that China, after officially condemning the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in... Damascus has become close to Tehran following the rapprochement that took place last year with Moscow, as the three countries apparently agreed on an alliance formula based on providing mutual benefit by providing each other’s needs to secure the future of the world away from the United Nations and its corruption.
The American newspaper also announced an expected visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Chinese capital, Beijing, next month, where an agreement will be made to activate “the new world order on which the idea of the BRICS economic system was based,” where the two parties will agree with Iran on a “unified position” on establishing... “A new global security order is based on the position towards the Palestinian issue and the genocide committed by Israel, which for the West, which supports Israel in any case, is still something far from being described as genocide,” she said.
The newspaper also pointed out that the United States, which had previously issued “threats of a tsunami wave of sanctions” against China if it implemented its idea to establish a new global security system based on the BRICS economic system as an alternative to the United Nations, is now facing a union between the three major countries and their “civilizations.”
The ancient countries and their enormous economic and industrial capabilities,” and the countries of Asia and the Global South, something that realistically threatens, as Washington realizes, its “hegemony” at the international level through the entirely Western-oriented United Nations.
The analysis issued by the newspaper expected that the three countries would succeed in establishing their new world order with the imminent collapse of the SWIFT economic system and the loss of the United Nations’ credibility before the countries of the world after its “complete submission” to the desires of the Americans and Israel and the decisions of the “genocidal regimes,” in reference to the major Western countries and their continued support. For Israel, it is expected that by the end of this year the world will witness the emergence of a “new United Nations” whose center of power will be in the East and South of the world, instead of in the West. link
"ABOUT THE EXCHANGE RATE OF THE DINAR" BY GOLDILOCKS, 4 MAY
GOLDILOCKS
"...of floating to achieve a homogeneous equilibrium exchange rate..."
This article talks about utilizing supply and demand to create a higher exchange rate to meet the demands for their currency currently taking place.
The global standard for raising a currencies' price is 3 months. Iraq has reached a higher level of money velocity for the last 16 months.
This is putting price pressures on their currency. Currently they are seeking more bilateral contracts to secure a position that would allow them to change their monetary policy.
Currently, "The General Directorate for Industrial Development (GDID), part of the Iraqi Ministry of Industry and Minerals, has granted 219 preliminary licences for new industrial projects."
An industrial project is an investment to create, expand, and develop facilities that will increase the production of goods and services in a country.
© Goldilocks
https://mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=247171
https://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2024/05/02/gdid-grants-219-licenses-for-new-projects-in-iraq/
"IRAQI BANKS GO DIGITAL" BY GOLDILOCKS, 4 MAY
GOLDILOCKS
Iraqi Banks go Digital
"His advisor: Al-Sudani succeeded in digital transfer in banks"
This is really good news for our investment. The Iraqi banks are now capable of digital transfers. When Iraq regulates their digital economy after MICA is finished (5-28-24) and Stablecoins become law on June 30th, 2024, we will begin looking toward credit valuation adjustments across the globe.
The difference this time around is that Iraq will be included. We still have to see what that means when we get to Q3. There will be many assets being refactored into the new economy after these dates.
© Goldilocks
https://www.mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=247128