There's talk about Al-Sudani doing something that will help with the dinar exchange rate...
Article: "Sudani will announce next week a banking service that leads to the decline of the dollar" I've been racking my brain out trying to think what it is Al-Sudani is going to do.
The only thing I can think of Al-Sudani has got to do something about the exchange rate. What other options does Iraq have? They rose the exchange rate last time from 1450 dinars for every dollar because the parallel exchange rate was getting out of control.
It stabilized for a little while but now...the parallel markets are way out of control. You now can get 1630 for every dollar compared to 1300 on the official market...
if any of the citizens have US dollars they can get more dinars on the black market than they can through the bank at the official rate. Where is the incentive for the citizen to avoid the black market? The US dollar is much stronger in Iraq than the Iraqi dinar. The only thing you could do is try to find a way to strengthen the dinar as much as possible so it can compete with the US dollar.
Let's talk about the high possibly of a reevaluation taking place here real soon with the Iraqi dinar...
Article: "The dollar is flying fast and registering 162 thousand dinars in the markets".
1,620 for every dollar is a huge gap between the fixed rate of 1,320...Iraq is going to have to do something very soon about this situation.
They can't keep allowing this to get out of control. It's causing inflation...and it's affecting the economy... The last time we started to see this type of gap between the fixed rate and the black market rate, Iraq was forced to increase the value of dinar.
IMO if this keeps getting out of control I don't think they're going to have any choice but to do the same thing again...
Keep in mind the Iraqi dinar before they devalued you got 1,190 dinars for every dollar, it dropped down to 1,450 for every dollar then they increased it to where you get 1,300 for every dollar. If they go to make a move again is it possible they finally bring us back to where we started from at 1,190 or every dollar. It almost looks unavoidable at this moment.
Goldilocks' Comments and Global Economic News for the evening of October 28th
Good evening ,
We are witnessing several countries having gone through exchange rate reform guidance with the IMF as of late.
Here, we have Zimbabwe upgrading their currency exchange mechanisms. These changes will put them on par with other countries in trade on the new digital asset-based trading system.
Currently, the IMF is asking the banks of Zimbabwe to remove their currency rate restrictions, so they can accelerate their foreign currency reform market.
The European Union confirms its desire to contribute to the development road project
Prime Minister, Mr. Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani, receives the European Union Ambassador to Iraq
Prime Minister, Mr. Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani, received, today, Saturday, the European Union Ambassador to Iraq, Mr. Thomas Seiler. During the meeting, bilateral relations between Iraq and the European Union were reviewed, and ways to strengthen them in a way that achieves mutual interest, as well as the recent developments in the region, especially the continued attacks on the Palestinian people in besieged Gaza.
Mr. Al-Sudani reiterated Iraq's clear and principled position calling for the international community and European Union countries to take responsible steps that lead to stopping the aggression, bombing, and targeting of civilians, opening safe corridors to deliver aid to Gaza, and relieving the Palestinian people from the tragic conditions they are experiencing.
His Excellency also stated Iraq's desire to advance distinguished relations with the European Union and expand serious partnership in various development and economic sectors. For his part, the European Ambassador indicated that relations between Iraq and Europe witnessed clear growth during the first year of Mr. Sudanese government. He also stressed the desire of the various European parties to contribute to the development road project.
Ambassador Siler stated that the European Union missions continue to work and cooperate with Iraq, at the highest levels, stressing the European Union’s position on developments in the Palestinian issue, working to achieve an immediate ceasefire, applying international law and opening humanitarian corridors for the passage of relief convoys.
Prime Minister’s Media Office October 28, 2023 link
A lot of different things that go on behind the scenes that your average person has no idea that it's even going on. They're just looking for what we all are to some degree - When's it going to go, when's it going to happen. But it's a complex process and the awesome thing about it is what we're seeing in public and behind the scenes is showing it's coming. It's coming fast. It's coming furious. It's good.
If you've been paying attention closely, it isn't just the oil and gas law anymore. It's the oil, gas and natural resources law. They're going to add more to it so the citizens are going to benefit from this...that's all the politicians too. Everybody in the country is going to benefit from it...
I'm convinced that when the time's right...they're going to use the dinar globally. That means, you, I, Europe, everybody that has it is going to be able to use it.
THE SITUATION IS GETTING WORSE… ARTICLE 140 IS STILL OUTSIDE THE CIRCLE OF POLITICAL CONSENSUS
A member of the Committee of Regions and Unorganized Governorates in the Parliamentary Region, Jawad Al-Yassari, stressed today, Wednesday, the necessity of creating a political consensus within the House of Representatives and the government, in order to implement Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution. Al-Yasari said, in an exclusive interview with Al-Mutala’ Agency, that “the failure to implement Article 140 and end the problems between Baghdad and the region, and even the intertwined borders between the governorates, is due to the lack of political consensus, within the House of Representatives, and also between the governments of the center and the region.”
He added, “Failing to implement this article will make the situation worse. Therefore, the parties must agree and reach effective solutions to implement it,” noting that “relying on this article and not considering it is a violation of the constitution and the law.”
A member of the Parliamentary Regions and Governorates Committee confirmed that Article 140 “is not subject to or concerned with one governorate, but rather with all governorates and regions whose lands were usurped by the former regime, and that this article was established in the constitution to address those violations before 2003.”
(All you idiot intel gurus out here suck up to this one! Once again Mnt Goat is correct and Article 140 is NOT yet implemented and must be implemented to full fill the constitutional requirements. So please stop telling your listeners its all done and they are hiding it being done. For what reason they would do this mystifies me…lol..lol..lol š. Just more stupid guru talk.)
Jordan announces the entry of Iraqi oil tankers from the Trebil crossing after stopping for days due to demonstrations
The Jordanian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that all tanks carrying Iraqi crude oil across the Trebil border had entered the Kingdom’s territory.
The Ministry has released a statement announcing the arrival of the last quantities of Iraqi oil for the current month. The report mentions that Jordan has 33 oil tanks, and its strategic crude oil stock is enough to cover its needs for more than 44 days. Additionally, the oil derivatives supply is sufficient for more than two months.
The tanks stopped from entering Jordan and had to return to Anbar Governorate. They were traveling from Kirkuk Governorate and were on their way to the Jordanian oil refinery in Zarqa. This was part of the regular transit movement that had been agreed upon between Iraq and Jordan.
The passage of tankers has been disrupted due to Iraqi demonstrators closing the Trebil crossing. As a result, the last batch of October’s fuel quantities could not cross into Jordan and return to the Iraqi Rutba region, which is about 161 kilometers away from the crossing. This was done at the request of Jordan to ensure the safety of the drivers.
According to Nael Al-Dhiabat, the Director General of the Jordanian company responsible for transporting oil tankers from Iraq to Jordan, the agreed-upon quantities of petroleum derivatives arrived in Jordan without delay.
In a recent statement to the press, Al-Dhiabat explained that their agreement with the Jordanian government requires them to supply approximately 450,000 barrels per month, which averages out to 15,000 barrels per day. The frequency of tank crossings isn’t determined by a set number, as the tanks depart from Kirkuk and may reach Jordanian territory on the same day or the following day.
Al-Dhiabat estimated the distance traveled by the tanks to be around 1,600 kilometers between the starting and arrival points.
It is unclear why tankers have been prevented from passing, as no official statements have been released. According to Reuters, Iraqi protestors, outraged by Israeli attacks on Gaza, have blocked oil trucks from crossing into Jordan. They have also stated that they will not allow the export of Iraqi oil to countries that have signed agreements with Israel in the name of peace.
For the past week, hundreds of people have been participating in a sit-in at Iraq’s main border crossing with Jordan. The purpose of this demonstration is to show solidarity with the people of Gaza and to demand an end to the Israeli bombing and siege of the Strip. The leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, called on the Iraqi and Arab people to march towards the border with Gaza to lift the siege on the Strip, which has been under bombardment for 22 days.
The Jordanian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources released a statement last Wednesday, confirming that Iraq is dedicated to honoring the memorandum of understanding signed between the two countries regarding the supply of oil to Jordan. The report also mentioned that there are ongoing efforts to monitor the safety of the tanks and drivers involved in the process.
According to the statement, Iraq’s oil imports account for only 7-10% of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil and petroleum product needs. This means that there is no impact on the supply of crude oil and petroleum products, as there are significant contracts between the Jordanian Petroleum Refinery and Aramco, which is responsible for importing most of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil needs.
Iraq Declares No War Over Oil Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions
In a region where oil is the lifeblood that fuels economies, politics, and even wars, Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has made a crucial declaration: it will not plunge into war over oil. This pronouncement comes amid escalating tensions in the region, as the United States and Iran spar with airstrikes and proxy attacks.
Messages in the Skies
Recently, the United States conducted airstrikes on Iranian military munitions stockpiles in Syria. These strikes were not random acts of aggression but a carefully orchestrated operation intended to send a two-pronged message to Iran. Firstly, escalating attacks on American forces by Iranian proxies could lead to overt military confrontation. Secondly, if these attacks cease, both sides could revert to the simmering hostilities that have characterized their relationship in recent years.
However, the United States’ attempts to modify Iran’s behavior have often been fruitless. The 2015 nuclear deal, for instance, failed to foster the desired cooperation. Iran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah, coupled with its oil sales to China, has bolstered its economy, making an all-out conflict a risky venture.
A Delicate Balance of Power
The U.S. strikes on Iranian military facilities were designed to be potent yet measured, strong enough to demonstrate resolve but not so severe as to escalate the situation or give Iranian hardliners an excuse to push for a wider regional war. The goal of the strikes is to deter and prevent future attacks by Iranian-backed militia groups.
However, the effectiveness of these strikes remains uncertain. The United States believes that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wants to avoid a wider war, but Iran is still applying pressure on the U.S. to rein in Israel and remind them of Iran’s power.
China’s Role in the Middle East
As the United States and Iran navigate this fraught relationship, another global superpower, China, is positioning itself as a key mediator in the Middle East. China has economic interests on both sides of the conflict and advocates for a peaceful resolution. By maintaining neutrality, it secures support from the Global South and demonstrates that it can collaborate with the West.
The current conflict provides an opportunity for China to demonstrate its willingness to partner with the West and dispel fears that its rise means seeking to replace the West.
As the Middle East teeters on the brink of potential conflict, Iraq’s decision to avoid war over oil is a beacon of hope in a turbulent storm. It remains to be seen whether other nations will follow suit and choose diplomacy over destruction.
Welcome everybody to the big call tonight - It is Thursday, October 26th and you're listening to the big call. Thanks for listening wherever you are located all over the globe - And we hope that we're getting this to you in your own language. I didn't get the stats on Tuesday’s call to know what the numbers were yet and usually do but all I know is we've reached a lot of people - and last Thursday’s call 182 countries I believe it was 19 point something million listeners - we’re happy about that. We hope we're getting a big reach tonight – we were kind of kept out of Israel and some of the Middle Eastern countries last Tuesday, obviously with a conflict that's going on in Israel, but let's do this you guys - Let’s get into the Intel side of things,
Let's talk first about Iraq. We were looking to see the Iraqi dinar rates published in the physical printed Gazette, the official record of Iraq, they call it the Gazette. And that was to go in yesterday, or so we thought, but it didn't and we're hearing those should go in either Friday or Saturday. I would expect it to be there, except on Saturday.
That makes sense Friday of their high holy day. I don't know if it would come out tomorrow it's possible. But if it comes out Saturday that will suffice - The rate itself that we heard today on the screens is excellent. Very good. And I told you guys Tuesday - they were supposed to offer us a contract rate on the dinar, which I can't tell you what it is, but you'll be very pleasantly surprised.
Now - The other thing is we do expect this rate to be an international rate and the dinar to be quite high, quite good - Higher than Dr Shabibi suggested 10 years ago, actually 11 years ago now, when he mentioned what the value of the dinar could support in the International Chamber of Commerce meeting in 2012 - and just seems like yesterday, but it was 11 years ago. So that's good news.
it'll be higher than what he suggested. and you guys that have been on the call for a while, know the rate that I'm referring to. So that would be an international rate - the Iraqi dinar - The new Iraqi dinar has been traded for almost two weeks now on the forex and also on the ATF FX. So it's not like people that are in that business aren't aware of that they are -
And I just think we're gonna be totally amazed by not only that but also the rate of the dong - the rupiah - the Afghani also Bolivar from Venezuela and it's just gonna be --- and the zim itself, it's gonna be a terrific rate. So it should be on par with our dollar highest or whatever. So that's really good news.
Also thinking - saying that what we're hearing about the dinar is very positive for us, and we should have that -- See when we say that the rate should be published in the Gazette. I know we've talked about past Saturdays past Wednesdays and Saturdays, and it's held off from being published because they really don't want it out there published like that, until we are ready to go with our exchanges. And I think that's what's interesting about either tomorrow or Saturday. And I think if I were a betting person I'd bet on Saturday.
The other information that's lining up for us - have to say this first, you guys realize that the information that I get at the time appears valid appears true, appears to be the real thing. And then look what happened in the last three days.
We were expecting 800 numbers to come in on Tuesday morning, yesterday morning and this morning.
But since those times we've gotten information that says that that wasn't happening. And we knew it didn't happen because we experienced the fact that it didn't happen. But it just goes to show that we've talked about this being a moving target talked about, you know, things that happened to be time that are not true. There are other variables that play into this. There are other things happening globally, with the political scene with everything else that that certain people in the deep state are trying to do to thwart this - And to keep this from going.
In one analogy that was made yesterday today was about the game of Whack a Mole, where those moments come up to hole and you whack them with that mallet. That's sort of what they're playing a game of Whack a Mole with the deep state. But every time every day doesn't happen and the next day comes guess what - there are fewer and fewer each day interfering because they've been picked up arrested and removed from the premises - how long will they go on? It's hard to say -- Is everything clear and ready to go now? It's hard to say.
I will say this, politically. Johnson was elected Speaker of the House. And I think we went out about it Tuesday. whenever that was, that was a big win. It looks like to be a great guy - I think that some of the other political shenanigans that are going on could have been what slowed this down.
Obviously, we do have a major conflict going on in Israel. And that is a real thing. It started as a prisoner swap and then cleaning out of tunnels, which we believe there are so many tunnels under Israel that were used for child trafficking. But that is something to be cleansed and that's what they're doing, as well as trying to defend against Hamas and possibly Hezbollah. So that is a real thing.
The money that Janet Yellen, sent over to the Ukraine, in the tune of $57 billion was returned by President Putin of Russia to our good Treasury here - our new treasury, you realize the old Treasury that we had was using the Fiat and printing money. It was basically operating under the Federal Reserve, which is the good parts of the Fed and rolled into the new US Treasury for the restored Republic. And so those 57 billion were returned to our country, And that's a good thing.
The other piece of it, I think that is important. And some of our intel sources are really kind of dried up. It's really getting so close that certain people have said they can no longer speak to our source or our sources and you know, no longer meet with them speak with them, and that's a good thing, because it tells us how close we are – the bad thing is because then we sometimes lose communication with bank sources, or redemption center sources,
and where we stand right now - Or the last communication that we had, which was coming in from an email received at the redemption center was that things are being resituated and re allocated for an all new restart -- I think they are working with our timeline or trying to get everything resituated and funds re allocated for a complete new restart.
Now, the restart was supposed to be the either Friday that's tomorrow, or Saturday. That's the day after tomorrow.
So that's the latest intel that we have pointed to a window of having this done, getting our numbers out, getting our appointments set, going in for exchanges. If everything works out, right, we could be in doing our exchange in my opinion - I think Saturday is looking very positive - Maybe tomorrow, maybe
I think what's going to happen is what's happening on the political scene is I think we'll see some political change that we might notice tomorrow with removal of some and reinsertion of another. But let's see how that plays out over the next day or so. The timing I've been told is going towards things happening tomorrow in that regard for the political change to take place. And I look forward to that just like everybody else. I think we can't wait to win.
Also our thoughts and prayers go out to the people in Mexico – Who withstood a very strong force four force five hurricane and people in that area of Mexico and the west coast of the Pacific Coast of Mexico. I'm sure are really inundated with the effects of that hurricane
And I'm sorry that that happened. And I just really found out about it today. I think it made land fall yesterday - So our thoughts and our prayers are with the people of Mexico, and specifically Acapulco and all the areas surrounding it, that were affected.
I think this you guys we know that this is very close. We know that we thought we would have days ago even months ago - And what I'm trying to do is bring you the most accurate, up to date information that I get. That's what I've given you tonight.
Now I know dates have come and gone. We have to be careful, don't ascribe too closely to those particular dates that we when it comes to restitution and reclamation allowance - Yes, we did not get that yesterday or the 18th of October. And I got sources looking into seeing whether it's possible that we do still receive it this month.
It's possible but I just don't have that don't have that to give to you. We also did not get an increase in Social Security benefits this month.
So I don't know where that stands right now. So obviously we are looking for this revaluation of currencies which by the way there's another Mea culpa but I guess you'd say we did get the last Friday.
The bonds were seized in terms of being sold. That would be German bonds and all the various Chinese dragon colored bonds were stopped. I don't get it. All bonds were stopped I know those two types of classifications ceased at midnight, central time last Friday, but the currencies that we thought would stop then we're told they might stop them on Sunday at five o'clock. That didn't happen - currencies are still available.
Now - Here's, here's the situation. The bonafied currency sellers whether it's on eBay, whether they're brick and mortar stores, wherever they are, they will be getting a communication from Treasury and asked when that communication is sent by email to change the values of currencies or the prices of them or remove them for sale in 15 minutes - manually.
It can't be pre programmed to happen by a computer they have to physically go and manually change their offerings, whether it's removed them from being for sale, or change the price to reflect it. Now, the currencies that we're talking about are not going to be affordable to buy. They're not - can you imagine.
Now. They're not going to be for sale, the Zim will be gone - dinar gone - that are already gone. All these currencies that we're looking at to go way up in value will not likely be available anymore.
So that's what's going to happen. These currency sellers receive emails telling them, they should receive a notification from Treasury in the next several days, four or five days that would ask them to make those changes or remove the currency for sale. So that is how they're gonna be notified. We don't have a fixed absolute time or date right now for that to happen. So we got clarification on that.
Again, our timing is close on this. Okay. So, that is what I wanted to bring to you guys tonight.
And I just want to thank everybody, for being there with us, especially our international listeners who may be hearing me it should be Renee and Marie, multiple languages around the globe. I mean, we are getting the word and the big call out in sight in almost simultaneous translation in three seconds from the time I speak and it comes to this global community of the big fall in a matter of seconds.
I appreciate everybody listening in on the intel giving me grace for the fact that we've all done everything but call it we cannot call it and then we try to do it. We get stuck. And I just think that our best bet is to stay with a plan A till the numbers come out.
Thank you Sue. glad that you're back. Thank you, Bob. Thank you GCK Jeanne and Pastor Scott content, continued healing to you, as well as Jeanne And for anyone else that's behind the scenes, our sat team or satellite team that's getting the call out globally, thank you guys for putting negative, and thank you for everything that all of your listeners, meant to be called over the last 12 years.
Let's see where we're going to go now the next couple of days.
TO FACILITATE BANKING PROCEDURES…THE IRAQI CENTRAL BANK TAKES 6 NEW STEPS (DOCUMENTS)
Today, Wednesday, October 25, 2023, the Central Bank of Iraq took 6 new steps to facilitate banking procedures, in a letter addressed to all licensed banks.
According to the book, a copy of which Al-Sumaria News obtained, banks must act according to the following all approved banks
M/ Facilitating banking procedures
good greeting…
Addendum to our circulars No. 2/9/275, 9/2/119, and 9/2/126 on 1/7/2019, 23/23 and 2/26/2023, regarding facilitating the procedures for opening accounts and marketing banking services, given the connection between the performance of banks. And their profitability with those products and services, which is reflected in the growth and development of the Iraqi banking sector, expanding financial inclusion, and increasing confidence in this sector. Therefore, bank departments must work on the following:
1.Consider taking into account the interest and return rates for savings accounts – deposits that encourage attracting funds to the sector. The Iraqi banker, in accordance with the monetary policy of this bank.
2.It is necessary for the awareness, media and relations departments in your banks to carry out a media campaign through official websites, as well as on social networking sites, and all official channels and newspapers for the purpose of attracting customers and advertising all the products and services provided by the bank, as well as carrying out external financial transfer operations at the official exchange rate in all branches of your bank and preparing Your employees, which motivates customers to enter the banking sector and enjoy these services.
3.It is necessary for you to work on what your banks offer through (our bank application), in Raqia Private Tennis, (might be a bad translation) and to promote this through all newspapers and social media.
4.Holding awareness workshops, seminars and conferences that encourage customers to enter the banking sector.
5.The necessity of working to expand the procedures related to the process of promoting the deposit insurance company further through the use of the official websites of your banks, or holding meetings with a sample of merchants and investors in order to reassure customers that there is insurance for your banks in the deposit insurance company, and thus the deposits will be returned to them in the event of the bank’s insolvency. In accordance with the instructions and controls issued in this regard.
6.A link is attached to the account opening forms for individual accounts, as well as (merchant accounts), (corporate accounts), and (joint accounts) to work according to, which makes it easier for customers of all types to open accounts with ease and ease, provided that (the form organizer – the liaison officer in the branches) Or the director of the reporting department or his assistant at the main branch – the branch manager – signs the form, and the form data is updated and the Anti-Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Office is informed in the event of suspicions, without notifying the client of this.
Working in accordance with the requirements of the stated directives will be a critical criterion in evaluating the performance of banks in order to serve the national economy, the banking sector, and the public, with the Central Bank’s readiness to provide support and support to achieve this.
New Iraqi Dinar Rate expected to be published in Gazette Fri. or Sat. 27, 28 Oct...International Iraqi Dinar Rate expected to be very high, as is Dong...
Kaperoni
Community Comment "It's interesting when u compare Iraq with Jordan's economy. Pretty similar stats, I'd say Iraq is better with lower unemployment, higher average income. and over 4 times higher GDP. However the Jordanian Dinar is 1.41 to 1 USD and the Iraqi Dinar is 1/6 th of a penny to 1 USD."
Yes, but Iraq's money supply is over 90 trillion, Jordan's is 18 billion. Big difference!
Desert Advisor
Kuwait is $3.24 and Jordan is $1.41. Their currency is worth more than our [U.S.] currency...We look at Iraq...$0.0007.
That don't even look attractive...The exchange rate was pretty stable until the Gulf War in 1991. The dinar was worth over $3...We can see that with Kuwait right next door. Iraq does have a lot of oil. We've known this...
Easing sanctions on Venezuelan oil.. What does this have to do with Kurdistan region oil?
The United States recently eased Venezuelan oil sanctions after years of blockade, which opened the door for energy experts and specialized monitoring companies to provide their estimates about the effects of this easing on regional and global oil markets.
In this context, a detailed analytical report predicted a weak impact of the expected increase in oil productionVenezuelaOn global oil markets, after easing partial, temporary US sanctions for 6 months, subject to extension or cancellation.
The report, issued by the specialized company Energy Outlook Advisors , suggested that Venezuelan oil production would grow by no more than 200,000 barrels per day in the short term, and 400,000 barrels per day by the end of next summer of 2024, according to the Energy Research Unit.
Details of the politically conditional sanctions. The easing of Venezuelan oil sanctions came within the framework of a political deal with the government of the current Venezuelan presidentNicolas Maduroleft-leaning party, to hold fair elections in which the American-leaning opposition participates in 2024
.Office of Foreign Assets Control, of the US Department of the Treasury (OFAC), 4 general authorizations to suspend certain sanctions imposed onVenezuelaAfter the success of the government and the opposition in signing the electoral road map agreement in 2024.
The duration of these licenses is 6 months, during which oil and gas transactions are allowed between the United States and...VenezuelaHowever, its renewal will remain dependent on the Madror government’s fulfillment of its political obligations towards the electoral road map, in addition to the release of detainees, according to a statement issued by the US Treasury Department on October 18, 2023. Some licenses allow dealing with the state oil company
inVenezuelaIt exports its oil to the United States, and also allows commercial dealings with the state-owned Venezuelan gold mining company, Minerven.
Some other licenses also provide for amending the secondary trading ban imposed on certain Venezuelan sovereign bonds, while remaining the ban on trading in the Venezuelan secondary bond market.
While some licenses stipulate amending the secondary trade ban imposed on dealing in the debt and shares of the Venezuelan state oil company, Petroleos DeVenezuelaSA (PdVSA).
Anticipation of the election schedule in November . The US Treasury says that the goal of easing sanctions on Venezuelan oil and the trade in gold, bonds, and Venezuelan debt is to limit illegal activities in these sectors and prevent the ruling regime from benefiting from their revenues. These measures
can To succeed in limiting money flows to the government of President Maduro, but previous experiences indicate that theoretical sanctions on paper are usually applied differently in reality, and may not achieve their goals, and may even achieve opposite goals, directly or indirectly, as in the case of sanctions on... Russia, according to an analysis by Energy Outlook Advisors.
In any case, the Maduro government has until next November to set a final timetable for the elections expected in 2024, amid warnings from the US administration to reimpose some sanctions, if the government does not commit to setting The timetable is during the next month.
Despite these warnings and conditions in the decision to ease Venezuelan oil and other trade sanctions, the US administration may turn a blind eye to implementing some or all of them, due to its dire need to reach an agreement with the Maduro government at the present time, according to an analysis by Energy Outlook Advisors.
The easing was not related to events in the Middle East. The move was to ease some of the sanctions imposed on...VenezuelaExpected since last year, it came as a result of long negotiations that have nothing to do with current events in the Middle East (Israeli attacks on Gaza).
The President's administration allowed itJoe BidenLast year, two European companies, the Italian Eni and the Spanish Repsol, exported Venezuelan oil to Europe, according to what was monitored by the Energy Research Unit.
As for the giant American company Chevron, it did not leaveVenezuelaDespite the Venezuelan oil sanctions imposed under former President Donald Trump, the company succeeded in obtaining exemptions from Trump as well as Biden.
The company obtained a license in November 2022 to produce Venezuelan oil and export it to the United States for a renewable period of 6 months.
*Dilution effect in the Venezuelan oil sector needsVenezuelaThe company, which has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, relies on the expertise and technical capabilities enjoyed by international oil and service companies, which makes it in dire need of the expertise of companies such as Chevron and Schlumberger International Oilfield Services (SLB).
The Venezuelan oil sector also needs urgent foreign investment, after years of lack of investment, poor maintenance, and the flight of personnel and technical expertise to work abroad, which led to a sharp decline in its production of crude and condensates over the past two decades.
Venezuelan oil production has declined significantly over the past two decades, from 3.2 million barrels per day in 2000 to 735,000 barrels per day in September 2023.
Venezuelan Oil and Liquids Production The Venezuelan oil industry is in dire need of some diluents known as natural gasoline, symbolized by ( C5), to be mixed with its heavy crude so that it can be transported or exported via pipelines and tankers.
It is expected that the easing of Venezuelan oil sanctions will facilitate the entry of diluents into the countryVenezuelaIn the short term, this will benefit US shale oil producers.
Energy Outlook Advisors estimates the volume of diluents that US producers can export toVenezuelaNot to exceed 125 thousand barrels per day in the short term, which is a relatively small amount that is expected to double depending on developments in sanctions and the political deal concluded with the Maduro government.
Some American refineries need heavy Venezuelan crude, especially refineries located on the American Gulf Coast, due to the nature of their superior technical capabilities suitable for refining and processing heavy types of oil.VenezuelaAnd other countries of the world.
If mitigating materials are availableVenezuelaIt can add 300 to 400 thousand barrels per day within weeks, then production will stabilize for several months until the results of new investments and the participation of major oil services companies begin, and their effects will be partially reflected in the increase in production, according to a previous report issued by Energy Outlook Advisors in 2022.
*Production booms take 3 years. Increasing production in large quantities, reaching one million barrels per day, takes at least 3 years, based on a review of the experiences of 6 oil-producing countries that suffered from political instability and sanctions, according to an Energy Outlook analysis.
The American company Chevron has succeeded in adding 200,000 barrels per day to the total Venezuelan oil production at the present time, and it is expected to increase by another 100,000 barrels only in the short term, and it is expected that most of these additions will go to export.
If the political deal concluded with the president goes wellNicolas MaduroThe election dates have been set for 2024, and the United States is expected to renew the licenses for another six months.
This extension will allow major oil services companies, such as the American Schlumberger SLB, to increase Venezuelan oil production by 400,000 barrels per day by the end of the summer of 2024, that is, immediately before the US presidential elections, most of which will likely be exported to America.
Venezuelan oil exports to the United States and Energy Outlook Advisors doubts a full political solution will be reached in...VenezuelaThe American party is satisfied, but it believes that the Biden administration will turn a blind eye to any electoral violations or human rights violations in exchange for the continuation of the agreement.
Accordingly, Venezuelan oil production and exports will see significant increases even if the government does not meet the conditions set by the Biden administration and the US Treasury Department in the sanctions relief statement, issued on October 18, 2023. If the US-leaning Venezuelan opposition wins the elections, it may find itself
facing Strong internal opposition due to declared American support, and what may result in distorting its reputation and questioning the extent of its independence in running the country away from American tutelage, in addition to describing it as treason, because it came to power under very clear and frank American pressure.
The opposition will also face another crisis related to the lack of technical expertise and the flight of personnel from the state oil company after the late leftist president Hugo Chavir expelled many of them during the period from 2002 to 2003, which forced a large number of experts and engineers to leave.VenezuelaTo work in Colombia and the Middle East.
What is the relationship with Kurdistan oil? Based on these factors, Energy Outlook Advisors does not expect a rapid boom in Venezuelan oil production in the medium or long term, but increases will remain limited and slow.
The company also expects a limited impact of any potential production increases on global oil markets and prices, due to the expected increase in global demand during the next few years, which makes any increase in productionVenezuelaLimited and narrow impact.
But on the other hand, increasing heavy oil production in...VenezuelaTo alleviate the tightness of the global medium sour oil market, especially if exports from the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq remain outside the market, according to the analysis.
At the local level, the Venezuelan government’s revenues from oil exports are expected to recover, and this may stimulate the exhausted economy and lead to an increase in domestic oil consumption in the coming years, and may push the government to direct most of the productivity increases to domestic consumption instead of international markets.
Canadian oil is the first victim Canadian oil appears to be the first victim affected by the easing of US sanctions on Venezuelan oil, amid expectations of an increase in US oil imports.VenezuelaAt the expense of neighboring Canadian oil.
It is expected that the price differences between American and Canadian oil crudes will increase with the increase in US imports of Venezuelan oil, but these risks could subside once a pipeline is operational.Trans MountainWhich is strongly supported by the Canadian government.
Some American refineries in the Gulf of Mexico region fear that they will be negatively affected if Canada begins exporting its oil through a pipeline.Trans Mountain, amid expectations that this will lead to a decrease in the volumes of Canadian oil exports to America and an increase in its prices, according to an Energy Outlook analysis.
Based on this, these refineries see imports from...VenezuelaIt became a necessity as Canada rushed to build the line and wanted to get it up and running as quickly as possible.
Canada's ambitions to diversify its crude oil exports to countries other than the United States appear to be limited by the extent of its ability to increase production from the main province of Alberta, the prices of crude oil in Asia, the extent of its ability to compete with discounted Russian and Iranian crude oils to Asia, and the prices of Saudi Aramco.
Based on this, Energy Outlook Advisors expects Canadian oil exports to the United States to be affected by the thaw in US-Venezuelan relations and the increase in Venezuelan production, and the subsequent increase in exports to America.
It should be noted thatVenezuelaCrude oil was exported to several countries other than the United States, most notably neighboring Cuba, Spain, China and other countries, and was often accused of exporting through back doors, such as Iran and Russia. Source: link
Al-Rafidain announces the departments that have begun activating the electronic collection system
Today, Saturday, Rafidain Bank announced the direct activation of theelectronic collection system in a number of government departments.
Astatement from the bank, received by the Iraqi News Agency (INA), stated that “in accordance with government directives in implementingthe electronic payment system and using POS point - of-sale devicesinministries, state institutions and the private sector, the banktherefore announces the outcome of the departments that have begunactivating electronic collection and switching from cash financial transactions.
” To electronic and collecting funds through modernelectronic systems,” noting that “43 departments in the ministries havebegun activating the electronic collection system.”
Al-RafidainBank confirmed during the statement, “The activation of collection iscontinuing, its pace is increasing, and it is on the rise, and newdepartments will be included soon link
FIREFLY: It sounds like they're saying January 1st as the a date the stabilization process will be complete.
FRANK: Remember I told you...between now and January 1st there's a two-week phase/time Frame inside of these two months of November and December where these two weeks will play an important part in what we're studying.
So it doesn't have to go all the way to January the 1st for it to be announced. It can be announced and released inside of this time frame. That's what Sudani is telling the Iraqi citizens - We got stability.
FIREFLY: Sudani is talking and he tells the Iraqi citizens we are in a stabilized mode.
FRANK: Do you understand? They're not at first base...second base...third base. They're at home base...they touched all the bases and they scored.
FIREFLY: He says we will be complete by January 1st 2024. He's saying we have to stabilize the exchange rate.
Stability in Dollar-Dinar Exchange: A Beacon of Hope for Iraq
In the pulsating world of currency exchange, where numbers dance to the tune of political and economic realities, stability is a rare guest. Yet, oddly enough, it has found a home in the financial markets of Baghdad and Erbil. On Saturday, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar remained unflinching, a calm facade amidst the closure of the stock exchange and the ebb and flow of global economic tides.
Stability Amidst Chaos
The dollar prices held steady at 161,500 IQD for $100, mirroring the rates from earlier in the day. Selling prices at exchange shops in local markets in Baghdad were also immobile, with the selling rate at 162,500 IQD for $100, and the buying rate at 160,500 IQD for $100. Meanwhile, in Erbil, the dollar maintained its composure, with a selling rate of 161,300 IQD for $100 and a buying rate of 161,200 IQD for $100.
This stability in the exchange rate suggests a rare equilibrium in the demand and supply of the two currencies in the market. The closure of the stock exchange may have played its part, reducing overall trading volume and volatility. For businesses and individuals who rely on foreign currency transactions, this stability is a welcome respite, allowing for effective planning and budgeting.
Economic Indicators and Implications
But the story of the exchange rate is more than just a tale of numbers. It’s a mirror reflecting the overall economic situation in Iraq. Despite the ongoing challenges and uncertainties, the country’s economy has managed to sustain a degree of stability, a positive sign for investors and businesses that indicates the country’s ability to weather external shocks.
However, it’s crucial not to misinterpret this stability as a testimony of the Iraqi dinar’s strength. The stability may be more a reflection of the overall weakness of the global economy and the US dollar, rather than the strength of the Iraqi economy. Historically, the Iraqi dinar has been a volatile currency, its value subject to the whims of political and economic factors.
Broader Developments and Their Impact
Besides the stability in the exchange rate, other developments in Iraq have implications for the country’s economy and its global standing. One such development is the protests by Iraqi university students against Israeli aggression in Gaza. These protests underscore the strong anti-Israel sentiment in Iraq and the wider region, reflecting the deep-rooted solidarity with the Palestinian cause among the Iraqi population.
These protests also spotlight the intricate dynamics of the Middle East region, where conflicts and tensions between various actors have far-reaching implications. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not merely a regional issue, but also carries global ramifications. Protests in Iraq and other parts of the Middle East serve as a reminder of the region’s interconnectedness and the urgency for a comprehensive and sustainable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Another noteworthy development is Iraq’s decision to abstain from voting on a UN resolution to cease fire in Gaza. This decision reflects Iraq’s stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and its support for the Palestinian cause. It also underscores the complexities of international diplomacy, where countries must balance their national interests with their moral and ethical obligations.
This decision may have implications for Iraq’s relations with other countries, particularly those that maintain a more pro-Israel stance. It may also impact Iraq’s standing in the international community and its ability to effectively advocate for its interests on the global stage.
Overall, the stability in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar in Baghdad and Erbil is a beacon of hope for the country’s economy. It hints at a certain level of stability and resilience in the face of external challenges. However, it’s important to recognize that this stability is fragile, and can be easily disrupted by political and economic factors. Iraq’s position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict also carries wider implications for the country’s relationship with other nations and its status in the international community.
