MIKE BARA: " TODAY AFTER 5 PM" : but they will wait for liquidity to be in the market #iraqidinar

 

FRANK26: "ASRAFLAK !!!... THIS SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN THE IQD EXCHANGE RATE !!!", 15 APRIL

 KTFA

FRANK26: "ASRAFLAK !!!... THIS SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN THE IQD EXCHANGE RATE !!!".......F26 

Plunging Oil Prices Jeopardize Iraq’s Budget: Will the Government Resort to Dollar Revaluation?

 

4/13/2025

By Ahora Qadi

ERBIL  –

Iraq is bracing for renewed economic turbulence as oil prices fall below the critical $65 per barrel mark—five dollars short of the benchmark adopted in the country’s federal budget. The slide in global crude markets threatens to erode the very foundation of Iraq’s oil-dependent economy, prompting speculation over potential fiscal and monetary policy shifts.

According to economic analyst Salah Boushi, the continued depreciation in oil prices could severely undermine the state’s ability to fund essential institutions and public services. “The longer this drop persists, the more pressure the government will face,” he told Kurdistan24. “A flexible, carefully calibrated strategy is imperative. Increasing oil production may become necessary to offset lost revenues.”

While some officials advocate for boosting output, others warn against hasty decisions involving Iraq’s monetary reserves. The central bank’s hard currency reserves, considered a last line of defense, are unlikely to be tapped under current circumstances. Still, one policy instrument remains within reach—and contentious: the exchange rate.

Economic expert Ahmed al-Ansari noted that while Iraq’s reserve fund is generally safeguarded for emergencies, adjusting the value of the Iraqi dinar relative to the U.S. dollar remains a plausible option. “We’re unlikely to see the reserves touched, but a revaluation of the dinar, coupled with domestic borrowing, could help bridge a potential deficit,” al-Ansari explained. (ECONOMIC LEAKS ASRAFLAK!!! -F26)

The recent price plunge has also sparked unconventional proposals. Some economists have suggested postponing monthly salary disbursements by an additional ten days—shifting from a 30-day cycle to 40—as a temporary measure to alleviate budgetary stress and delay liquidity shortfalls.

Iraq’s fiscal vulnerability is deeply rooted in its dependency on oil, which constitutes nearly 90% of national revenue. Any significant fluctuation in the global oil market poses a direct threat to the country’s financial stability. As prices continue to fall below projections, the government faces the unwelcome prospect of making “painful” adjustments that could directly affect ordinary citizens.

For Iraq’s population—already grappling with inflation and diminished purchasing power—the prospect of a revised exchange rate raises alarm. A stronger dollar would translate into more expensive imports, triggering a ripple effect on everyday goods and services.

With few viable alternatives in the short term, and in the absence of economic diversification, the Iraqi government may be forced to choose between austerity and structural reform—or risk spiraling into a deeper crisis.

LINK

EXCERPTS FROM MARKZ, 15 APRIL

 EXCERPTS FROM MARKZ

MZ: This is something we are going to start seeing in Iraq as well……”April 18 is the final day to exchange the fifth issue of Kuwait currency: The Central Bank” …this is a reminder that in Iraq dedolllarizidation and deleting the 3 zeros will lead to this down the road. We will have a limited time to turn in our currency before banks make it not accepted anymore. This mechanism exists for nations that change their values. 

MZ: Speaking of changing values: “The Argentinian peso : Where is the currency headed after FX regime overhaul?” They are going to the free market after all of their changes. This is another currency that will be changing values soon. Look for positive changes coming to several countries. . 

MNT GOAT: We can expect something BIG to occur when these three issues come up !! #iraqidinar

 

FRANK26: "IRAN... BURY THE HATCHET... OR WE WILL BURY YOU!!!", 14 APRIL

 KTFA

FRANK26: "IRAN...  BURY THE HATCHET... OR WE WILL BURY YOU!!!"......F26

US Ready to 'Go Deep and Go Big' If Nuclear Talks With Iran Fail, Defense Secretary Warns

4/14/2025

 

By Dler Mohammed

 

ERBIL – 

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated Sunday that while Washington remains committed to a diplomatic path to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, the American military is fully prepared to act decisively if negotiations fail.

Speaking on CBS’ Face the Nation, Hegseth described initial indirect talks between U.S. and Iranian diplomats in Oman as “productive” and “a good step,” suggesting cautious optimism in resolving long-standing concerns about Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. However, he made it clear that diplomacy has its limits.

“We’ve shown a capability to go far, deep and big,” Hegseth said. “Again, we don’t want to do that, but if we have to , we will to prevent the nuclear bomb in Iran’s hands.”

The comments came just a day after diplomats from Washington and Tehran initiated backchannel discussions in Muscat, signaling a renewed, albeit tentative, attempt to revive stalled nuclear diplomacy.

President Donald Trump, who withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, has taken a hardline stance since returning to the White House, emphasizing that military action remains “absolutely” on the table—particularly in partnership with Israel.

“If it requires military, we’re going to have military,” Trump told reporters earlier this week. “Israel will obviously be very much involved in that, be the leader of that.”

The Trump administration’s posture follows a blunt warning issued in late March, when the president declared, “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing.” The statement underscored growing alarm in Western capitals, where intelligence assessments suggest Iran could be just weeks away from developing a deliverable nuclear weapon. Tehran has consistently denied it seeks to build nuclear arms, insisting its program is for peaceful purposes.

The revival of talks in Oman comes at a critical juncture in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with regional tensions running high and the specter of a new conflict looming. While Washington maintains its preference for a peaceful resolution, officials have been increasingly vocal about the consequences of Iranian defiance.

“President Trump hopes to never have to resort to a military option,” Hegseth reiterated, “but we are not naïve about the stakes.”

As negotiations continue behind closed doors, observers say the coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether U.S.-led diplomacy can succeed in preventing Iran’s dangerous nuclear ambitions—or whether Tehran’s defiance will push the region closer to a destabilizing conflict.

LINK

Monday Coffee with MarkZ. 04/14/2025, 14 APRIL

 Monday Coffee with MarkZ. 04/14/2025

MarkZ  Update- Some highlights by PDK-Not verbatim

MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything and its best to watch the video so that you get everything in context.  Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions

Member: Good Monday Morning……. Thank you mods and friends for making everyone feel welcome here...

Member: Hoping it was a very good weekend on the RV and Bond front!!!!!!

Member: Markz what new RV news did you hear from your mainland insiders this week?

MZ: Stream will be shorter today as I head to the airport and back to Puerto Rico today as soon as this stream is finished. 

Member: Once 30% of bonds are done it will be our turn – right Mark????

MZ: I did get an update from historic bonds saying last week and the weekend went exceptionally well and they hope to achieve the 30% point this week. 

Member: So the RV has begun with bond people being paid? If that's true, Lets all hope we are next . 

Member: With bond holders being paid- we should be no more than 14 days away –I would think?

Member: Are we looking before or after Easter for the RV?????

Member: Easter is a 4 day weekend I believe- including Good Friday. 

Member: Zimbabwe starting to pay white farmers for 2020 bond settlement agreement

Member: Markets in the green this morning, gold n silver down a bit....

MZ: This one got me excited today “Parliament face a constitutional challenge. Ready laws await vote and fate is in hands of blocs”  they are telling us things are ticking down and there is a short time period to make all of these changes before they get into the election cycle. They are telling us to look for a lot of activity. Look for the budget and HCL and lots of agreements. They are setting the stage right now. 

Member: Mark Iraq was quite busy this past weekend working with that very large USA delegation and everyone was hoping for a rate. 

MZ: “US congress members visit Baghdad for key talks with Iraqi PM” This is on top of all the business folks being over there as well. Now we have political folks to help speed up the massive investments in Iraq from US investors. 

MZ: “Iraq takes deal to develop Subsea oil pipeline” . Upping the oil capacity to be able to pump another 2.4 million barrels per day …These pipelines go out to load and unload tankers for the global markets. 

Member: Doesnt IRAQ have a deadline for contractual projects????

Member: Al-Alaq announced that banks must comply with international standards. Those unable to meet these requirements will need to merge with other banks or face closure, as stated by CBI Governor Al-Alaq.

Member: Plunging Oil Prices Jeopardize Iraq’s Budget: Will the Government Resort to Dollar Revaluation?"

Member: Iraq needs to stop with all the articles and just do the RV already. 

MZ: With oil falling Iraq is faces with some things. They may have to revalue their currency. And that is being talked about right there in the news. They are actually discussing going ahead and pulling that trigger. 

Member: Usually when Iraq says they are going to do something, it has already been done.

MZ: This is something we are going to start seeing in Iraq as well……”April 18 is the final day to exchange the fifth issue of Kuwait currency: The Central Bank” …this is a reminder that in Iraq dedolllarizidation and deleting the 3 zeros will lead to this down the road. We will have a limited time to turn in our currency before banks make it not accepted anymore. This mechanism exists for nations that change their values. 

MZ: Speaking of changing values: “The Argentinian peso : Where is the currency headed after FX regime overhaul?” They are going to the free market after all of their changes. This is another currency that will be changing values soon. Look for positive changes coming to several countries. . 

Member: I had been really hoping we would see the RV before Tax day….which is tomorrow….so serious bummer. 

Member: I sure hope that we don't make it out of April without the GCR

Member: Hopefully this is done over Easter weekend. 3 day weekend again.

Member: Safe travels back to Puerto Rico today Mark……everyone have a wonderful, blessed day. 

Member: May your day be filled with unexpected happy dances!

MZ: Starting tomorrow we should be back on our normal schedule. 

Mod:  SEE YA ALL TOMORROW MORNING!! HAVE A GOOD NIGHT!!!

MILITIAMAN: They are not going to do this with 1310 IQD / 1 USD!! @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinar#iqd

 

FRANK26: "STOPPING IRAN... STARTS IRAQ'S NEW EXCHANGE RATE !!!", 14 APRIL

 KTFA

FRANK26: "STOPPING IRAN... STARTS IRAQ'S NEW EXCHANGE RATE !!!".......F26

Rome Awaits: U.S.-Iran Nuclear Drama Enters High-Stakes Second Act

4/14/2025

 

By Kamaran Aziz

ERBIL  — 

The United States and Iran are preparing for a second round of high-level nuclear negotiations set to take place in Rome on Saturday, following a significant shift in format during the initial talks in Muscat. According to a report by Axios, the Trump administration has expressed satisfaction with the first round of talks, which successfully transitioned from indirect, mediator-led discussions to direct dialogue between top officials.

In a striking development not previously disclosed in full detail, Axios reported that the U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a face-to-face meeting that lasted approximately 45 minutes. According to sources cited by Axios, this encounter was described as "substantive, serious, and excellent," and marked the highest-level dialogue between American and Iranian officials in over eight years.

The shift to direct communication has been welcomed by Washington, with U.S. officials viewing it as a breakthrough that could lay the groundwork for a more stable and transparent diplomatic process. The choice of Rome as the venue—a suggestion from the American side—reflects Washington’s desire to shape the setting of future negotiations. Although Iranian officials have downplayed the possibility of another direct-format meeting, the presence of both delegations in the same room remains on the table.

Saturday’s extended Muscat encounter, held under the mediation of the Omani foreign minister, took place against a backdrop of mutual distrust. Iranian negotiators raised their longstanding concern about the reliability of U.S. commitments, citing former President Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as a major breach. In turn, the U.S. delegation voiced skepticism about Iran’s intentions and the transparency of its nuclear program.

Despite the underlying tensions, both sides reportedly emerged from the meeting with a shared sense of purpose. Officials familiar with the discussions told Axios that avenues for continued engagement remain open, though Iran continues to stress that its primary objective is the lifting of U.S. sanctions—a stance reiterated on Sunday by the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson.

According to the report, the United States is now pushing for Iran to take tangible steps to distance its nuclear program from potential weaponization. One proposed measure is the "downblending" of Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, which experts warn is sufficient to produce as many as six nuclear weapons if further enriched.

Following the Muscat talks, Witkoff briefed President Donald Trump in Washington on Sunday, providing a direct account of the negotiations. He also updated Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, as well as officials from Gulf nations. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Araghchi held conversations with his counterparts from Qatar, Kuwait, and Egypt, underscoring the regional dimension of the unfolding diplomacy.

Looking ahead, the second round of talks in Rome is expected to be accompanied by another crucial diplomatic move: a visit to Tehran by Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Grossi is slated to discuss enhanced monitoring and verification procedures at Iranian nuclear facilities, a topic central to rebuilding international trust in the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities.

Adding context to Iran's motivation for continued engagement, a report by The Wall Street Journal notes that the country’s economic crisis is a powerful driving factor behind its return to the negotiating table. Iran’s currency is among the weakest globally, inflation remains over 30%, and the population is facing rising food prices and unemployment. Sanctions reimposed after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 have severely strained Iran’s economy, already burdened by systemic corruption and mismanagement.

According to the report, the economic pain is most visible among Iran’s shrinking middle class and the rural poor. Basic goods have become unaffordable, and financial insecurity has pushed many to desperate measures. Iranian officials fear that worsening economic conditions could threaten the regime's stability at a politically sensitive time, especially with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei aging and concerns growing over succession.

Observers, including Sanam Vakil of Chatham House, argue that Tehran views sanctions relief as essential to survival and believes that Trump, despite his hawkish stance, may deliver more pragmatic concessions than previous administrations. Yet many experts, such as Djavad Salehi-Isfahani of Virginia Tech, caution that Iran is unlikely to agree to sweeping reforms. Instead, it may continue a strategy of offering limited compliance to maintain talks while extracting incremental economic relief.

While skepticism remains—particularly in Israel, which has lobbied the White House to prepare a military contingency if diplomacy fails—the emerging dialogue represents a pivotal attempt to defuse tensions and reestablish guardrails around Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The face-to-face meeting between Witkoff and Araghchi in Muscat may have been brief, but it has shifted the diplomatic tone and format, potentially laying the foundation for what could be the most significant U.S.-Iran engagement since the collapse of the JCPOA. All eyes now turn to Rome, where the second act of this high-stakes negotiation drama is set to unfold.

LINK