"ABOUT THE COMMODITIES FUTURES CONTRACTS" BY JJIMMYJJ, 19 JAN

KTFA Wednesday Night CC:  https://youtu.be/B4diqPc1bAg 

JJimmyJJ:  I’ve been thinking about these commodity futures that Frank mentioned at the end of the call last night. 

Disclaimer: In my business career, I usually sold services, not manufactured goods, so I’ve never dealt with commodity futures. In addition, we don’t know what commodities were traded, the expiration dates of the contracts, if the differing amounts were for different length contracts, or even if these contracts are for imports or exports. 

Or, in other words, there are too many unknown variables for this to be anything other than a thought exercise for fun. But, while we’re waiting for the announcement, we certainly have time. So, let’s have fun with this. All IMO…

A commodities futures contract is a contract between too large entities to purchase the commodity at a set price at a future date. And usually for a set amount. Frank mentioned, as an aside, exporting something from Iraq. So, let’s assume these contracts were exporting a commodity out of Iraq. As their major export is oil, let’s assume these are futures contracts for oil. Frank also said these contracts are in dinar, which means that, if our assumptions are true, Iraq is going against the petro-dollar and getting paid directly in dinar. Also, if these are oil futures, we can confidently assume that the Ministry of Oil worked very closely with the PM’s office and the CBI on these contracts, so they aren’t guessing. This has to be based on information.

Frank also mentioned that there were at least two different contracts: 1 at an exchange rate of $1.68 per dinar, and another at $3.04 per dinar. 

Let’s assume that some entity isn’t getting a deal at almost half the rate of another entity, so the most likely cause of this discrepancy would be differing expiration dates on the contract. Perhaps the $1.68 contract expires earlier, and the $3.04 contract expires later. That would likely mean a float changing the rate. 

I sure would like to see the dates on those contracts. If all these assumptions are right (and they probably aren’t), this could show both the timetable the CBI is expecting for the float, AND that the CBI is at least looking at a rate over $3.00 per dinar.

Boys and girls, this is more a WAG than a prediction, but the expectations for this RV to finally get announced have just ramped up even more. It’s getting pretty hot in this waiting room of ours!

Holy smokes and Hallelujah! 

V