Tuesday, December 16, 2025
The Biggest Challenge Awaiting Iraq's Next Prime Minister
Iraq 2025: Political Shifts, Reconstruction, and the Promise of Change
Introduction: Baghdad as a “Surprise Boomtown”
Iraq is showing tangible signs of economic and infrastructural growth, with Baghdad emerging as what The Economist called a “surprise boomtown.”
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani used construction imagery for his Reconstruction and Development bloc during the November 11 elections.
Billboards and campaign materials featured Sudani wearing a hard hat, symbolizing Iraq’s rebuilding efforts.
Yet the key question remains: can Iraq’s political system keep pace with the rapid changes on the ground?
Featured Snippet:
“While Baghdad is booming, Iraq’s political system faces skepticism about its ability to effectively manage reconstruction, economic reforms, and militia influence.”
Election Outcomes: Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish Dynamics
Shia Political Bloc
Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development bloc won 46 seats, the most in the election.
Despite this, the Shia Coordination Framework insists the next prime minister serves as a ‘general manager’, implementing policies rather than creating them.
Sudani’s success contrasts sharply with his 2021 result, when his movement won only one seat.
Sunni Political Alignment
Sunni parties largely opposed Shia dominance and formed the National Political Council, aiming to unify against the Shia bloc.
Key early positions included preventing Mohamed Halbousi from being re-elected as parliament speaker.
Kurdish Internal Divisions
KDP and PUK disputes continue over control of KRG ministries.
These divisions could delay Baghdad’s government formation and impact national political cohesion.
Militias as Political and Economic Actors
Militia-affiliated parties gained significant ground in 2025 elections:
Sadiqoun (Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq) – 27 seats (up from 7)
Badr Organization – 18 seats
Militia candidates now occupy over 50 parliamentary seats, highlighting their political power.
Future prime ministers will need strategies to bring militias under state control.
Key Insight: US officials may insist on excluding militias designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, posing a challenge for coalition-building.
The US-Iraq Relationship and Foreign Policy
Iraqis across sects emphasized maintaining strong US relations while balancing historical ties with Iran.
Political maneuvering remains largely domestically driven, reflecting internal priorities rather than external pressure.
The next prime minister is expected to pursue continuity in Iraq’s foreign policy, including relations with the US.
Public Sentiment vs. Political Elites
Many Iraqis express disillusionment with elections, viewing them as largely symbolic.
The 2019 Tishreen protests and 2021 parliamentary results show limited impact of independent activists.
Critics argue the 2025 elections were a “billionaires’ election”, driven by high political spending, rather than popular enthusiasm.
Featured Snippet:
“Despite high voter turnout, many Iraqis remain skeptical that elections influence real government decisions, reflecting a gap between elites and the public.”
Signs of Change and Reconstruction
Route Irish, once infamous for attacks on US convoys, is now safe for civilian travel.
Al-Mutanabbi Street in Baghdad has been rebuilt after the 2007 bombing, restoring a hub for booksellers and cafes.
Freedom of movement and revitalized marketplaces in Dohuk and Erbil reflect tangible progress in everyday life.
Challenges Ahead for the Next Government
Militia control and influence
Economic reforms and infrastructure projects
Water and environmental crises
Bridging the gap between political elites and the general population
Key Insight: Iraq’s next government faces a moment of opportunity to enact meaningful reforms while fostering citizen trust.
Q&A: Understanding Iraq’s 2025 Political Context
Q: Who won the 2025 Iraqi elections?
A: Prime Minister Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development bloc won the most seats, but the Shia Coordination Framework remains influential.
Q: How influential are militias in politics?
A: Militia-affiliated parties now hold over 50 parliamentary seats, making them key stakeholders.
Q: Are Kurds united in national politics?
A: No, internal KDP-PUK divisions could delay Baghdad’s government formation.
Q: How does the public feel about elections?
A: Many Iraqis are disillusioned, feeling elections have limited impact on government decisions.
Conclusion: Iraq at a Crossroads
Iraq in 2025 presents a juxtaposition of hope and challenge:
Urban reconstruction and economic growth indicate progress.
Political fragmentation, militia influence, and public disillusionment underscore ongoing risks.
The next government has a historic opportunity to unify political elites, manage militias, and bridge the gap with citizens.
“After two decades of conflict, Iraq shows promise, but success depends on narrowing the divide between elites and the people.”
Official Updates and Community Links
🔹 Atlantic Council Iraq Initiative:
👉 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/region/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-initiative/
🔹 Iraqi Government Official News:
👉 https://gds.gov.iq/en
🔹 Middle East Political Analysis Blog:
👉 https://middleeastpolicy.org/iraq-politics/
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FRANK26: Iraq Dollar & Dinar Update: CBI Conversion Window Ends and Exchange Rate Insights
Introduction: End of the CBI Conversion Window
According to Frank26, Iraq is witnessing a critical moment in its currency management. The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has closed its last official auction/conversion window, which previously allowed dollars and dinars to move across borders, including illegal flows to Iran.
This closure will cause increased demand for US dollars inside Iraq.
The spike in demand may lead to panic among citizens, but it is being carefully managed by the CBI.
The lower denomination dinar notes rollout is part of the preparation.
Featured Snippet:
“The CBI’s auction window closure triggers higher dollar demand in Iraq, managed to prevent public panic and prepare citizens for lower denomination dinar notes.”
False Supply and Demand Dynamics
The surge in dollar demand is artificial, not reflecting true market fundamentals.
Frank26 explains that the panic-driven demand will temporarily inflate the dollar’s value.
This is a controlled measure by the CBI, aiming to stabilize the market during the transition.
Clarifying the Exchange Rate Mechanism
Inside vs. Outside Iraq
Contrary to some reports about a “dual exchange rate,” Frank26 clarifies:
Inside Iraq:
Likely a fixed rate near 1:1 with the US dollar, reflecting domestic stability.
Not pegged, but controlled to avoid market shocks.
Outside Iraq (Free Float):
Determined by global supply and demand.
Managed to cap the rate around $4.25, preventing extreme volatility.
Key Insight: The term “dual exchange rate” is incorrect. The proper understanding is domestic fixed rate vs. international free float, both controlled to manage stability.
Implications for Iraqi Citizens and Investors
Citizens will notice increased dollar demand at banks and exchange points.
The CBI is preparing the public for these changes to avoid panic.
Investors should watch the domestic fixed rate for stability and the external free float rate for potential arbitrage opportunities.
The lower denomination notes (LDS) are being introduced concurrently, part of the monetary reform plan.
Q&A: Understanding Iraq’s Dollar and Dinar Situation
Q: Why will the dollar value increase inside Iraq?
A: The CBI’s auction/conversion window has closed, stopping the last avenue of dollar/dinar outflows, creating temporary demand spikes.
Q: Is Iraq implementing a dual exchange rate?
A: No. There is a domestic fixed rate and an external free float, managed separately.
Q: What is the purpose of lower denomination notes (LDS)?
A: To modernize the currency system and prepare citizens for new monetary reforms.
Q: How will this affect the Iraqi dinar?
A: The dinar’s domestic stability is maintained, while external rates adjust to market demand, allowing controlled flexibility.
Conclusion: A Carefully Managed Transition
Frank26 emphasizes that Iraq’s monetary authorities are managing a delicate transition:
Domestic stability with a near 1:1 fixed rate
International flexibility with a managed free float
Preparation of citizens for currency reform and new lower denomination notes
“Everything I have been saying is now coming from their mouths to the world…’Dual’ is improper terminology,” Frank26 confirms.
This period represents a critical moment in Iraq’s financial evolution, signaling market readiness and CBI control.
Official Updates and Community Links
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Frank26
There will be a slight increase in the value of the American dollar inside of [Iraq] only because the CBI action conversion window has come to an end. That was the last place where the American dollar and dinar were being funneled out...illegally...to Iran. Therefore, when this auction window shuts down, there will be a gigantic panic...because the demand for the American dollar will explode...
People in Iraq will panic and desperately look for it in any way possible, causing the value and the demand...to increase...But it's a false supply and demand. I believe the CBI is preparing the Iraqi citizens so they are not shocked by this event just like they are preparing them to receive the lower denomination notes.
It is not a dual exchange rate [that an Iraqi economist is proposing]. There will be an exchange rate inside...and there will be one outside because of supply and demand, not dual. I made a mistake. The fixed rate is inside your country, 1 to 1 more than likely on par with the American dollar, not pegged, and outside free float with management controls and cap the rate where they suggested at about $4.25. Everything I have been saying is now coming from their mouths to the world...'Dual' is improper terminology.
CBI: Iraq to Develop Regulatory Framework for Virtual Assets
The first meeting of the National High Committee for the Regulation of Virtual Assetswas held in Baghdad at the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), bringing together senior representatives from regulatory, legal, financial, supervisory, technical and communications bodies.
The committee reviewed global developments in digital assets and examined international regulatory models that balance financial innovation with monetary and financial stability.
Discussions focused on compliance with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing requirements, mitigation of cyber risks, and the need for clear definitions, accurate classifications and a flexible, risk-based regulatory approach. The proposed framework aims to enhance transparency, protect users, improve service efficiency and establish a modern licensing environment.
The initiative forms part of a broader government strategy to build a secure and sustainable digital financial ecosystem, strengthen financial inclusion, and ensure the national financial system is prepared for rapid technological change while safeguarding Iraq's monetary sovereignty.
(Source: Central Bank of Iraq)
JEFF : Iraq’s Next Phase: Sovereignty, UN Exit, and Preparing for 2026 Reforms
Introduction: Iraq Enters Its “Next Phase”
Iraq is on the brink of a major international and economic transition in 2026. According to Jeff, recent developments show that both the US and the UN are completing their formal interactions in 2025 to allow Iraq full sovereignty and independence in its upcoming phase.
2025 marks the end of the old era
2026 is being described as Iraq’s “next phase” in articles and official statements
These preparations set the stage for comprehensive reforms, but do not indicate an immediate rate change at the start of 2026
Featured Snippet:
“Iraq’s next phase begins in 2026 with full sovereignty and international independence, setting the stage for major reforms without specifying an immediate rate change.”
UN Exit and Sovereignty Ceremony
On December 2025, Iraq and the UN held a formal stability ‘graduation ceremony’, marking the UN’s exit from the country.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres personally attended the ceremony, highlighting the event’s significance.
The official last day of UN involvement in Iraq is December 31, 2025, symbolizing the transition from external oversight to full Iraqi sovereignty.
International Positioning for 2026
Preparing for the Next Phase
Iraq is preparing to enter the international stage in 2026.
Foreign entities, including the US and UN, are stepping back to allow Iraq full autonomy.
This period will clear pathways for reforms, modernization initiatives, and strengthened international partnerships.
Clarifying Currency Rate Expectations
Jeff emphasizes: “This doesn’t mean the rate is changing in January 2026.”
While the groundwork for reforms is being laid, the exact date for any currency rate change remains unknown.
Iraq’s messaging focuses on proximity and readiness, not immediate execution.
Key Takeaways from Jeff
“Next Phase”: Iraq is entering a new international stage in 2026.
UN Exit: The UN will fully depart by December 31, 2025, ending formal oversight.
US Step-Back: The US is also reducing its direct involvement in Iraq’s internal affairs.
Sovereignty & Reforms: This transition enables Iraq to launch economic and political reforms with full control.
Rate Change Timing: The currency rate change is close but not guaranteed for early 2026.
Q&A: Understanding Iraq’s Transition
Q: Does the UN exit mean Iraq’s currency rate will change immediately?
A: No. The exit signals sovereignty and readiness for reforms, but the exact rate change date is unknown.
Q: Why is Iraq calling it the “next phase”?
A: The term marks a transition to full sovereignty, international positioning, and the launch of reforms in 2026.
Q: What is the significance of the graduation ceremony?
A: It formalizes the end of UN oversight, signaling Iraq is ready to operate independently.
Q: Are there immediate reforms expected?
A: Preparations are in place, but implementation may follow gradually as Iraq enters its next phase.
Conclusion: A Historic Turning Point for Iraq
Iraq is stepping into 2026 with autonomy, sovereignty, and readiness for major reforms.
The UN exit and US step-back create a clear international stage
Citizens and investors are watching for policy and currency developments
While the exact timing of currency adjustments remains uncertain, the groundwork for a new era of economic and international engagement is firmly in place
“The year 2025 ends the old; the year 2026 begins the new,” Jeff explains.
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Jeff
Iraq is going international in 2026. That's why the US and UN are ending their interactions with Iraq in the year of 2025 so that both parties or foreign entities will be out of Iraq so they can have their sovereignty in their new next stage in 2026 which is their new international beginning...
That gives them a clear pathway to jump in and launch the reforms in the beginning of 2026. That doesn't mean the rate is changing in January or 2026.
Iraq is revealing they're going to enter into their 'next phase'. That is a key little phrase they're using right now in articles. They're entering into their next phase in the year 2026. We are extremely close to the timing of the rate change.
Yesterday we had a stability 'graduation ceremony' between Iraq and the UN. The UN will be exiting out of Iraq and their last day is December 31, 2025.
Antonio Guterres of the UN flew into Iraq. They had a big formal ceremony...What they're suggesting is that the year '25 ends the old, the year of '26 begins the new. That doesn't mean the rate is changing at the beginning of '26. That's not what I'm telling you. Nobody knows the day the rate is going to change. I'm telling you it's close. I'm showing you it's close but I'm not telling you the rate is changing in January...
Iraq begins the countdown... 90 complex days to form the three branches of government
Iraq begins the countdown... 90 complex days to form the three branches of government
Following the ratification by the Supreme Federal Court, the highest judicial authority in Iraq, of the final results of the parliamentary elections for the sixth session, the Iraqi political scene has entered a new and sensitive phase, representing the official transition from the electoral process to the formation of the three constitutional authorities: the legislative, the executive, and the presidency of the republic.
Observers confirm that the Federal Court’s ratification yesterday, Sunday, is not merely a formal or procedural step, but rather the decisive constitutional condition that makes the election results effective and binding, and practically announces the readiness to launch a new parliamentary session with all its political entitlements, potential conflicts, and hopes for a different administration than the previous sessions, which were marked by delay and deadlock.
Constitutional legitimacy
Legal expert Nawfal Al-Hayani affirms that the Federal Supreme Court’s ratification of the final election results represents the full constitutional legitimacy of those results, based on the text of Article (93/Seventh) of the Constitution of the Republic of Iraq for the year 2005.
Al-Hayani explains in an interview with Shafaq News Agency that the House of Representatives is not considered constitutionally valid and the parliamentary session does not come into effect except from the date of this ratification, stressing that any parliamentary procedure that precedes the ratification is considered to have no constitutional effect by virtue of the constitution, as it is the highest and supreme law in the country.
According to Al-Hayani, the next step immediately after ratification is for the President of the Republic to invite the members of the House of Representatives to convene for their first session, in accordance with the provisions of Article (54) of the Constitution.
If the President of the Republic does not make this invitation, the Council shall automatically convene on the sixteenth day from the date of ratification, and the session shall be chaired by the oldest member.
The first session of the House of Representatives constitutes the cornerstone in building constitutional authorities, as its agenda is constitutionally limited to taking the constitutional oath and electing the Speaker of the House of Representatives and his two deputies.
Al-Hayani points out that completing this step means completing the formation of the legislative authority, and then moving on to the second entitlement, which is the election of the President of the Republic within a period not exceeding thirty days from the date of holding the first session, in accordance with the provisions of Article (70) of the Constitution.
legal deadlines
For his part, legal expert Abbas Al-Aqabi explains that the Iraqi constitution drew a clear timeline for the formation of authorities, starting with Article (54), which obligated the current president of the republic to call the new parliament to convene within 15 days of the date of ratification.
Al-Aqabi confirms to Shafaq News Agency that the first session, which is held at the invitation of the President of the Republic, witnesses the election of the Speaker of Parliament, the First Deputy Speaker and the Second Deputy Speaker, after which the door is opened for nomination to elect the President of the Republic, as the House of Representatives is obligated to elect him within 30 days from the date of the first session, by a two-thirds majority (i.e., 220 deputies) out of a total of 329.
Al-Aqabi adds that the election of the President of the Republic opens the door to the most important stage, which is the appointment of the Prime Minister, as the President of the Republic, within 15 days, appoints the candidate of the largest parliamentary bloc to form the government.
As for the designated candidate, he has a deadline of 30 days to present the ministerial cabinet and the ministerial program to the House of Representatives to obtain confidence by an absolute majority, (half plus one), i.e., 165 deputies or more.
Al-Aqabi concludes that the sum of these periods constitutes a maximum time ceiling of 90 days, which – theoretically – can be reduced but cannot be increased, because the constitutional text explicitly defined them.
Constitution and reality
Despite the clarity of these timelines, the Iraqi political experience since 2003 reveals a significant gap between the constitutional text and practical application. The issue of delaying the formation of governments and the election of presidencies has become a recurring phenomenon, due to political disputes and sectarian and ethnic balances.
After the March 2010 elections, it took about seven months and 18 days to form a government, due to the dispute over the largest bloc and the right to nominate the prime minister.
In 2020, Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi was tasked with forming the government following the resignation of Adel Abdul Mahdi, but he later apologized for the task, in a clear example that obstruction can occur even after the official assignment.
After the October 2021 elections, Iraq entered one of its longest periods of political vacuum, with the formation of the government delayed for more than nine months, and was not resolved until October 2022, with the formation of the government of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.
The three presidencies
Therefore, Ghazi Faisal, head of the Iraqi Center for Strategic Studies, believes that the Federal Court’s ratification and the parliament’s approval of the sixth session represents a pivotal step, but it does not mean the end of the complications.
Faisal explains to Shafaq News Agency that, according to the constitution, the President of the Republic will call on Parliament to convene within 15 days to elect the oldest member and manage the first session, then elect the Speaker of Parliament and his two deputies, and thus the legislative authority will be formed.
Then the parliament moves to the second stage, which is the election of the president of the republic, a stage that is often the most complicated, especially in light of the disputes within the Kurdish house.
According to Faisal, the presidency, according to previous political norms, goes to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, but the Kurdistan Democratic Party believes that it has the right to compete for the position.
If both parties nominate two people, one from the Union and the other from the Democrats, the decision will be made through a vote in the House of Representatives. However, the two-thirds quorum requirement opens the door to what is known as the "blocking third," which may lead to prolonging the sessions to elect the president, as happened in the 2021 session.
Faisal points out that the election of the president will not be completed politically until there is agreement within the coordinating framework (which brings together the ruling Shiite political forces in the country) on the personality of the prime minister, under the system of political and sectarian power-sharing.
After the candidate is appointed, the stage of distributing ministerial portfolios begins according to the points system and the parliamentary weight of the parties, a stage that is no less complex than its predecessors, and often witnesses objections and difficult negotiations before granting confidence.
Sunni choice
On the Sunni component, Nawaf al-Ghurairi, a leader in the Sovereignty Party headed by Khamis al-Khanjar, affirms that the formation of the government is governed by constitutional timelines that cannot be exceeded, calling on all blocs and representatives to adhere to them in order to form the government as quickly as possible.
Al-Ghurairi reveals to Shafaq News Agency that the choice of the Speaker of Parliament "has been decided within the Sunni component to be Muhammad al-Halbousi," but this proposal is not without objections.
Meanwhile, former MP Bassem Khashan continues to raise the possibility of excluding the head of the "Progress" party, Mohammed al-Halbousi, based on a previous decision by the Federal Court to dismiss him from the presidency of Parliament, and accusations related to the forgery of official documents, which he describes as a "crime of dishonor."
In contrast, the Sunni arena is witnessing intense activity within the National Political Council (which includes the Sunni forces that won the elections), which held an expanded meeting in the capital, Baghdad, on Sunday evening, to discuss the names of candidates for the presidency of Parliament.
According to various sources in the council who spoke to Shaq News Agency, the number of candidates for the presidency of parliament has decreased from six to three, with talk of a "near consensus" on Muthanna al-Samarrai, in addition to the continued inclusion of the names of al-Halbousi and Thabit al-Abbasi.
Coordination framework
In parallel, the leaders of the Coordination Framework held their meeting last Monday, which witnessed an important discussion about choosing a candidate for the premiership. According to sources from Shafaq News Agency, specific dates were agreed upon to resolve the entitlements, with three prominent names being discussed, including outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, and a third "surprise" figure.
The Coordination Framework had previously set conditions and criteria that must be met by candidates for the position of head of the new government, most notably that he should not be the leader of a political bloc, then it softened them, which opened the door for most of the forces within the framework to submit their candidates for the position, according to what a political source told Shafaq News Agency earlier.
Imran al-Karkoushi, a member of the State of Law Coalition led by Nouri al-Maliki, confirms that completing the election of the three presidencies according to their constitutional timetable depends mainly on political agreements between the different blocs.
Al-Karkoushi, speaking to Shafaq News Agency, indicated that this session is expected to proceed in an organized manner and without exceeding the specified legal deadlines, unlike what happened in previous sessions, which witnessed long delays due to political disputes.
Kurdish commitment
For his part, Wafaa Muhammad Karim, a leader in the Kurdistan Democratic Party, believes that the constitutional deadlines were not respected in previous sessions, especially in the election of the president and the formation of the government.
Karim, speaking to Shaq News Agency, points out that an agreement between the two Kurdish parties (the Union and the Democratic) on a single candidate for the presidency could speed up the process, while going with two candidates would mean entering into alliances with other forces and prolonging the entitlement.
According to the political balance that emerged after 2003, the distribution of sovereign positions in Iraq became influenced by sectarian and political quotas; where political custom dictates that the position of Prime Minister is allocated to the Shiite component, while the position of President of the Republic is allocated to the Kurdish component, while the Sunni component assumes the presidency of the House of Representatives link
FRANK26: Iraqi Dinar Reforms & Potential Revaluation Dec 20, 2025 – Jan 8, 2026
Iraq Economic & Monetary Update: CBI Reforms, Currency Changes, and Regional Developments
Introduction: Key Monetary and Economic Shifts in Iraq
On December 15, 2025, Iraq experienced significant updates in monetary policy, currency reforms, and regional economic cooperation.
The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) announced changes that mark a pivotal moment for Iraq’s economy:
Suspension of the electronic currency conversion platform
Preparation for lower denomination dinar notes (LDS)
Expansion of regional border crossings for trade and tourism
Digital modernization of banking and currency systems
These developments indicate Iraq is moving toward a more stable, sovereign, and modern financial system.
Featured Snippet:
“The CBI suspension of its currency conversion platform is part of a major monetary reform aimed at modernizing Iraq’s financial system and introducing lower denomination dinar notes.”
Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) Currency Reforms
Suspension of Currency Conversion Platform
The CBI auctions, previously used to regulate foreign currency exchanges, have been suspended.
Official statements assure the suspension will not impact exchange rates, aiming to reduce public panic.
Analysts predict a short-term spike in US dollar demand, particularly in parallel markets, due to limited official supply channels.
Lower Denomination Notes (LDS)
LDS introduction prepares citizens, especially younger generations, for new currency handling.
Part of broader monetary reforms expected between Dec 20, 2025, and Jan 8, 2026.
Signals cessation of devalued dinar usage, strengthening the Iraqi currency.
Monetary Policy & Currency Valuation
The 2020 devaluation of the dinar was a temporary measure to address inflation.
Since then, Iraq has diversified economically and improved financial indicators.
New reforms aim to modernize currency management, increase stability, and reduce corruption.
Featured Snippet:
“The cessation of devalued dinar usage and introduction of lower denomination notes mark Iraq’s path toward a more stable and modern currency system.”
Regional Economic & Political Developments
Border Crossings
Saudi Arabia: Two new land crossings opening, facilitating trade and economic growth.
Iran: Al Shabib crossing now open to civilian traffic, supporting trade and religious tourism.
Economic Diversification
Border openings and free zones encourage jobs, tourism, and trade.
Iraq is moving away from oil dependence, promoting broader economic growth.
International & Financial Context
Fitch Ratings: Iraq’s credit rating affirmed at B-, highlighting internal stability and banking reforms.
UN Oversight: Extended until the end of 2025, contingent on security and stability achievements.
Digital Banking: Modern systems align Iraq with regional financial trends, including potential partnerships similar to Syria’s Visa initiatives.
Timeline of Key Developments
| Date | Event | Impact/Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Dinar devaluation | Temporary inflation fix; economy stabilized afterward |
| Dec 14, 2025 | CBI suspends currency conversion platform | Modernization step; impacts dollar supply and market dynamics |
| Dec 15, 2025 | New border crossings opened | Boosts trade, tourism, economic diversification |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Speculated exchange rate updates | Historical precedent around Dec 20 |
| Dec 20–31, 2025 | Monetary reforms, LDS rollout | Introduction of lower denomination notes; end of devalued dinar usage |
| Jan 1, 2026 | New monetary system rollout | Potential exchange rate stabilization and reforms |
| End 2025 | End of UN oversight | Conditional on stability; full Iraqi sovereignty expected |
Q&A: Key Insights
Q: Will the suspension of CBI auctions affect the exchange rate?
A: Officially, no, but analysts predict a short-term spike in dollar demand.
Q: What are LDS?
A: Lower Denomination Notes, part of Iraq’s currency modernization.
Q: How do border openings impact the economy?
A: Facilitate trade, tourism, job creation, and economic diversification.
Q: When will major reforms take effect?
A: Key period is Dec 20, 2025 – Jan 8, 2026, including new notes and cessation of devalued dinar.
Conclusions & Outlook
Iraq is actively modernizing its monetary system and strengthening economic sovereignty.
Short-term dollar volatility is expected due to reduced official supply.
Regional cooperation and border openings will diversify the economy beyond oil.
LDS and cessation of devalued dinar usage mark pivotal steps toward stability.
Dec 20–early Jan 2026 is a critical window for currency reforms and economic restructuring.
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GOLDILOCKS: Banks Ready for Upcoming Currency Swaps – All Tests Finished @DINARREVALUATION #Iraq
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