🛢️ Between Promises and Pressure: What Iraq’s Oil Boost Really Means 💰🇮🇶
Baghdad Today – 09/08/2025
As Iraq faces a crippling annual deficit in the tens of trillions of dinars, any increase in oil revenue is seen as a much-needed financial breather. But how much can a small production bump really help?
🔺 OPEC+ Decision: What’s New?
Economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi reports:
Starting October, OPEC+ will raise production by 137,000 barrels/day.
Iraq’s share? A modest +17,000 barrels/day, raising output to 4.137 million barrels/day.
This follows a virtual meeting between 8 oil-producing giants:
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 🇷🇺 Russia | 🇮🇶 Iraq | 🇦🇪 UAE | 🇰🇼 Kuwait | 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | 🇩🇿 Algeria | 🇴🇲 Oman
🧮 Will This Actually Help Iraq’s Deficit?
Short answer: Not much—but it helps... a little.
Experts say:
“Increased revenues may give Iraq a little breathing room.”
But there are strings attached:
The impact depends on stable global oil prices.
Government overspending & mismanagement could nullify gains.
Iraq remains dangerously dependent on oil—making its economy vulnerable to global market shocks.
📉 Iraq’s Bigger Problem: The Rentier Trap
Even with more oil money:
Iraq's structural deficit remains.
Lack of a diversified economic strategy keeps the country hostage to OPEC+ decisions and global prices.
Each “good news” cycle simply buys time, not solutions.
⚠️ Political Risks Mounting
Complicating things further:
SOMO, Iraq’s top oil marketer, is under U.S. scrutiny.
Accusations of mixing Iraqi & Iranian oil could lead to sanctions.
That would undermine new gains and isolate Iraq in the global market.
🧠 The Real Question:
Is a small oil bump enough to “breathe”?
Or is Iraq just delaying the inevitable without a true economic transformation?
Conclusion:
Iraq’s increased oil quota offers a short-term patch, not a long-term plan. With fiscal pressures, sanctions risk, and a rentier model that keeps recycling its crises, experts urge structural reforms, not just more barrels.
📖 Full article: Baghdad Today
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