IMF warns of global debt crisis threatening financial stability, 2 NOV

 The International Monetary Fund released a report detailing the worsening global debt crisis after it reached levels that pose a threat to global financial stability and necessitate immediate financial reorganization on the part of governments.

According to the Fund’s report, there is a chance to improve financial sustainability in the medium to long term due to what it considers a decline in interest rates and a trend toward neutral monetary policy. However, this opportunity necessitates a decisive response to control financial conditions and prevent the escalation of economic crises, particularly in emerging economies, due to the enormous debt left behind by the effects of the “Covid-19” pandemic.

Global public debt is expected to exceed $100 trillion in 2024, as predicted by the Fund. However, due to differences in debt sustainability strategies between nations, the picture remains uneven across economies. A third of countries, accounting for 70% of global GDP, are also anticipated to see an acceleration in debt accumulation, according to the report. The global debt-to-GDP ratio will fall by 20%, excluding China and the United States.

According to the report, the solutions call for boosting market-driven organic growth while simultaneously reducing government spending and reducing the state’s role in the economy. The Fund emphasizes the necessity of adopting policies that support private sector growth in order to achieve a sustainable financial balance because it is of the opinion that expanding the financial sector and raising taxes may actually make the situation worse rather than better.

In addition, the fund stated in the report that rising government debt is continuing to exert pressure on fixed income markets, and that financial markets are preparing for additional inflation. Ten-year bond yields, for instance, have increased by more than 60 basis points in the United States since the middle of September, which has had a negative effect on the real estate industry. Contract applications fell by 6.7% in the week finishing October 18, with financing costs on 30-year credits staying at 6.52%, levels higher than those predominant before the Central bank cut loan fees.

The Bank of Scotland has estimated that anticipated rate cuts will not exceed 22 basis points at the next FOMC meeting, with the possibility of reaching only 38 basis points by the end of the year. The Fund believes that markets are anticipating a slower monetary policy easing cycle from the Federal Reserve.

In light of the complexities of the global financial scene, this significant report stands out as a strategic document because it not only demonstrates the need for international cooperation but also places the responsibility on nations to adopt decisive and sustainable policies to address the escalating debt crisis, as the challenges that lie ahead cannot be avoided. The majority of these nations see the BRICS group as a platform to confront their financial crises and ensure greater economic stability in the future through strategic partnerships among members, away from the deep influence on them by the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the broad influence of the US dollar and the Federal Reserve. On the sidelines, the report may help in some way to explain the phenomenon of the increasing number of countries applying to join the BRICS group.