Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Why US–Iran talks keep failing, and why tensions persist
Shafaq News
For more than two decades, negotiations between the United States and Iran have followed a familiar cycle: escalation, talks, temporary calm, then renewed confrontation. Despite repeated diplomatic efforts, in Baghdad, Geneva, Vienna, Doha, and most recently Muscat, lasting breakthroughs have remained elusive.
The latest Oman talks may also fit squarely within this pattern. The persistent failure of these negotiations is not rooted in poor diplomacy or lack of channels, but in deeper structural contradictions that repeatedly undermine any progress. At the core of the impasse lies a basic mismatch in how Washington and Tehran define the problem. Washington approaches negotiations with Iran as a “comprehensive security challenge.”
Over time, US demands have expanded well beyond the nuclear file to include Iran’s ballistic missile program, its support for armed groups across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, and, increasingly, its internal governance and human rights record. From the American perspective, these issues are “interconnected” and cannot be meaningfully separated.
Iran, by contrast, views negotiations almost exclusively through the lens of sanctions relief. Iranian officials insist that talks focus solely on the nuclear program, arguing that missiles, regional alliances, and domestic politics fall under national sovereignty and defensive necessity.
This divergence means both sides often enter negotiations with incompatible agendas, reducing talks to crisis management rather than conflict resolution. Iran’s leverage does not primarily rest on its nuclear program, but on capabilities it consistently refuses to negotiate: its missile arsenal and its regional network of allied armed groups. Iran possesses one of the largest ballistic missile inventories in the Middle East, while its regional partners have demonstrated the ability to strike US assets and allies across multiple theaters since 2019. These tools form the backbone of Tehran’s deterrence strategy. From Iran’s perspective, surrendering them in exchange for sanctions relief -which can be reversed- would amount to strategic disarmament.
Read more: US-Israel threats to Iran: can mediators avert 2025 war?
The calculus explains why Iranian negotiators may have consistently rejected efforts to “broaden” talks. Even when agreements are reached, they suffer from a credibility deficit. The 2015 nuclear agreement demonstrated that Iran could meet technical obligations: IAEA monitoring confirmed compliance for nearly three years. Yet the US withdrawal in 2018 reinforced Tehran’s belief that American commitments are subject to electoral cycles, not binding state policy.
The asymmetry is central and seen when Iran is repeatedly asked to make long-term, technically irreversible concessions, while sanctions relief remains politically reversible in Washington. This experience has hardened Iran’s negotiating posture, particularly as US sanctions now number in the thousands, affecting banking, energy exports, shipping, and currency access. Both sides have institutionalized escalation as a negotiating tool. Iran has responded to diplomatic pressure by raising uranium enrichment levels, from the JCPOA cap of 3.67% to levels exceeding 60%, while also regional tensions rise through its allied groups. The United States, meanwhile, has relied on economic sanctions, military deployments, and explicit threats to extract concessions. Over time, this dynamic has normalized brinkmanship.
Talks are often triggered not by trust, but by fear of uncontrolled escalation. Once immediate pressure subsides, incentives to compromise fade. Recent military strikes in the 12-day June 2025 war and explicit threats have further complicated diplomacy. Talks conducted under the shadow of force rarely produce flexibility. Instead, they strengthen hardliners, narrow political space for compromise, and frame negotiations as acts of resistance rather than problem-solving. In Iran’s case, external pressure has reinforced the narrative that “deterrence, not accommodation, guarantees survival.” This framing limits political room for compromise
and turns negotiations into symbols of resistance rather than instruments of resolution.
Confrontation itself serves domestic political purposes on both sides. In Washington, a hard line on Iran signals resolve to allies and voters. In Tehran, sustained external hostility helps justify internal controls, deflect economic grievances, and consolidate power within security institutions. Periods of heightened tension often coincide with greater political influence for security bodies inside Iran.
Peace, by contrast, removes a useful external adversary and introduces domestic political risk. US–Iran talks rarely fail because diplomacy is insufficient. They fail because the underlying conflict remains strategically useful and structurally unresolved. The only period of genuine progress came when negotiations were narrowly focused, regional issues were deferred, and sanctions relief was clearly defined. Absent a fundamental shift -either a willingness by Iran to negotiate its broader power or an ability by the United States to offer lasting economic normalization- talks will continue to manage tension rather than resolve it. In this sense, recurring negotiations are mechanisms designed to prevent confrontation from spiraling out of control, not signs of imminent peace.
Read more: US, Israel, and Iran step up military readiness as regional tensions grow
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.
MNT GOAT: 🇮🇶 Iraq Dinar Reinstatement & U.S. Policy: Trump, Maliki, and the Geopolitical Power Shift in 2026
As 2026 unfolds, a strong narrative is circulating among Iraqi dinar investors:
That the future reinstatement (RI) or revaluation (RV) of the Iraqi dinar depends heavily on U.S. foreign policy — specifically under Donald Trump — and the removal of Iranian influence inside Iraq.
Let’s examine the geopolitical argument, the economic realities, and what investors should carefully consider.
🏛️ U.S. Foreign Policy & Iraqi Stability
It is widely acknowledged that U.S.–Iraq relations influence:
Security cooperation
Military assistance
Energy sector partnerships
Banking compliance frameworks
Sanctions enforcement
The argument being presented is that President Trump’s administration will not compromise on limiting outside influence — particularly from Iran — in Iraqi political structures.
From a strategic standpoint, U.S. administrations generally seek:
✔ A stable Iraqi government
✔ Reduced militia influence
✔ Secure oil infrastructure
✔ Compliance with international banking rules
✔ Alignment with broader regional security goals
These factors absolutely impact investor confidence.
👤 The Maliki Factor
Former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki remains a controversial political figure.
Critics argue:
He fostered sectarian division during prior terms.
His alliances increased Iranian leverage inside Iraq.
His leadership era coincided with economic and security volatility.
Supporters argue:
He remains influential within political coalitions.
He represents certain internal power blocs.
Whether or not he holds formal office, Iraq’s political alignment affects international perception — which in turn influences economic reform momentum.
🌍 Does Removing Iranian Influence Trigger a Revaluation?
This is where analysis must be careful.
Geopolitical stability absolutely supports currency strength.
However, exchange rates are not set purely by political preference.
The Central Bank of Iraq determines exchange rate policy based on:
Foreign reserves
Inflation rates
Money supply
Trade balance
External debt
Market confidence
While reduced foreign interference could improve economic confidence, a reinstatement or revaluation must align with macroeconomic fundamentals.
💰 What Would “Reinstatement” Actually Mean?
In dinar investor terminology:
Reinstatement (RI) refers to restoring a previous historical rate.
Revaluation (RV) refers to adjusting the official exchange rate upward.
Officially, Iraq currently operates under a managed exchange rate regime.
Any major change would require:
Coordinated fiscal and monetary policy
Banking system readiness
International settlement capability
Domestic economic stability
It cannot be implemented solely by U.S. executive preference.
📌 Featured Snippet: Does U.S. Policy Determine the Iraqi Dinar Rate?
No. While U.S. foreign policy influences Iraq’s stability and economic environment, the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar is determined exclusively by the Central Bank of Iraq based on monetary and economic conditions.
🏗️ “Make Iraq Great Again” – Economic Reform Vision
The broader vision often referenced includes:
Transforming Iraq into an energy powerhouse
Expanding private sector growth
Strengthening banking transparency
Integrating into global trade systems
These objectives align with long-term reform frameworks already discussed between Iraq and international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund.
But economic transformation is a multi-year structural process — not a single event.
🧠 What Investors Should Realistically Watch
Instead of focusing solely on political personalities, monitor:
✔ Official Central Bank statements
✔ Reserve growth levels
✔ Inflation trends
✔ Budget execution progress
✔ Oil export performance
✔
Banking digitization milestones
✔ Parallel market exchange gaps
These indicators provide measurable signals of monetary readiness.
❓ Q&A: Iraq Dinar & U.S. Political Influence
Q1: Could a Trump administration accelerate reforms?
U.S. policy can influence security cooperation and diplomatic alignment, but Iraq’s monetary authority remains independent.
Q2: Does removing Maliki guarantee an RV?
No. Leadership changes may affect confidence, but exchange rates depend on economic fundamentals.
Q3: Is Iranian influence a factor?
Yes, in terms of regional stability and investor perception. However, currency valuation requires broader structural alignment.
Q4: Is a reinstatement only possible under one U.S. president?
There is no official evidence that currency reform depends exclusively on a specific U.S. administration.
📊 The Bigger Picture
Iraq’s economic future will likely be shaped by:
Internal political cohesion
Reduction of militia influence
Strengthened institutional governance
Reserve-backed monetary discipline
International financial compliance
Geopolitical shifts may accelerate or slow reform momentum — but the exchange rate itself is a technical monetary decision.
🔥 Hashtags
#IraqDinar #DinarReinstatement #TrumpPolicy #Maliki #IranInfluence #IraqEconomy #CurrencyReform #MiddleEastPolitics #ForexNews #GlobalFinance #IQDUpdate #MonetaryPolicy #Geopolitics
🌐 Stay Connected for Updates
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Mnt Goat
We see in articles...that the US, under President Trump is not going to backdown, compromise or negotiate and thus allow any outside nation, most importantly Iran, to influence Iraqi politics...if President Trump is going to work with Iraq to mold it into the financial and economic powerhouse, he must have a government in place that he can work with and will not betray his foreign policy...
Nori al-Maliki...time and time again...has not lived up to agreements and promises made to the US. Instead, he has chosen to work with dark elements behind the scenes of US foreign policy and Iranian influence...we have read many articles already on the Trump dream to “Make Iraq Great Again”...As investors, if we have any chance of seeing the reinstatement of the Iraqi dinar and thus revaluation, if will be under the Trump administration.
Iraqi Army after US-led Coalition withdrawal: Can Baghdad achieve full military sovereignty?
Shafaq News
The Iraqi Armed Forces face significant responsibility in securing the country’s borders and protecting the state from internal and external threats following the withdrawal of Global Coalition forces from Iraq. This transition represents an opportunity to demonstrate the Iraqi Army’s ability to assume full responsibility without relying on external support, while focusing on building a professional national army trained and equipped with the latest weapons and military technologies.
The history of the Iraqi Army spans more than a century, during which it was, for decades, among the most prominent armies in the region and the world. It fought internal and external battles, from the harsh war with Iran and the invasion of Kuwait to confronting the US invasion and later battling ISIS.
Professionalism Under Pressure
The spokesperson for the Commander-in-Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces, Sabah Al-Numan, affirmed that Iraq is moving steadily toward building “a professional military system based on accumulated field experience from battles resolved in favor of the state,” noting that this vision “is grounded in a unified national doctrine and exclusive loyalty to the state and constitution.”
Regarding armament, Al-Numan told Shafaq News that the Iraqi Army also seeks to achieve technical self-sufficiency by reviving domestic military manufacturing and localizing military technology, while developing air power, preparing for cyber warfare, and utilizing the army’s expertise in urban warfare and combating terrorist groups, “to become among the leading armies in the region in terms of equipment and manpower.”
There remains, however, a path full of obstacles to strengthening the Iraqi Army. Although Iraq’s 2008 Strategic Framework Agreement with the United States established a formal security partnership —centered on training, equipping, and supporting Iraqi Security Forces— it fell short of addressing the country’s full military and security requirements. The gap became more apparent as Washington attached complex conditions to arms deals with Baghdad, limiting Iraq’s ability to procure and deploy critical capabilities.
To be sure, US support did not disappear. Between 2015 and 2024, Washington has provided Iraq with $1.25 billion in Foreign Military Financing to bolster its security forces, logistics, and counterterrorism efforts, in addition to more than $590 million allocated to weapons destruction programs. Yet this assistance, while significant, focused largely on stabilization and counterterrorism rather than on building a fully autonomous, strategically equipped army capable of regional deterrence.
Compounding the challenge, the United States faced pressure from regional allies, including Israel and several Gulf states, which opposed supplying Iraq with advanced weaponry that could shift the regional balance of power. These governments feared that expanding Iraq’s military capacity might indirectly strengthen Iran’s influence. As a result, Iraq endured prolonged security vulnerabilities —not only in negotiating arms contracts with Washington, but also in fully operating and deploying certain advanced weapons systems and equipment.
During the 1980s, the Iraqi Army ranked among the world’s strongest forces at the height of the war with Iran. That institutional power collapsed after the 2003 US invasion, when the head of the US-led CoalitionProvisional Authority, Paul Bremer, issued a decision dissolving the force, forcing Iraq to rebuild its military from scratch.
Over decades, the army had fought regional wars —including in 1948 following the declaration of “the State of Israel” in Palestine and the October 1973 war between Syria, Egypt, and Israel— and suppressed internal uprisings, most notably in the Kurdistan Region, which extended over many years, shaping both its operational doctrine and its political entanglements.
Today, Iraq ranks sixth in the Middle East according to the 2026 Global Firepower Index, but restoring strategic autonomy requires more than ranking positions; it demands functional independence.
Reform, Leadership, and Structural Weaknesses
The new Iraqi Army established after 2003 adopted a voluntary recruitment approach to build a professional military institution whose members choose military life willingly. However, one of the weaknesses negatively affecting the army’s efficiency, according to experts who spoke to Shafaq News, lies in “integration officers,” individuals affiliated with political entities who were incorporated into the army after the change of regime.
Military expert Alaa Al-Nashou believes that establishing a professional national army requires substantial resources, beginning with the formation of military schools, institutes, and academies to train officers and fighters, and extending to preparing divisions and corps capable of leading operations domestically and externally.
Al-Nashou told Shafaq News that preparing a professional soldier is not limited to physical training alone but includes physical and psychological preparation and tactical maneuvers enabling him to handle all military scenarios, from offensive and defensive operations to retreat combat. He stressed the need to establish mechanisms to ensure professionalism within the army, “most notably distancing the military institution from partisan and political conflicts, combating corruption and favoritism within it, and removing unqualified officers and ranks, especially integration officers.”
“Iraq needs to grant military formations direct authority to confront any border threat without interference from “armed factions,” he added, calling for the establishment of a military council composed of former commanders and officers to supervise the development of combat, organizational, and morale capabilities, in addition to sending military personnel to training courses both inside Iraq and abroad, particularly in countries with advanced military expertise such as the United States, Europe, and Russia.
Read more: US strategy 2026: Containment or military strike for Iraqi armed factions
Air Defense Gaps and the Sovereignty Question
The two experts agree that developing air power has become a decisive element in protecting Iraq. Between August 2024 and October 2025, the Iraqi Army received 15 US-made Bell 505 training aircraft, along with French Caracal helicopters designated for search and rescue, air transport, and ground support missions.
They noted that these aircraft represent a qualitative leap in military training and pilot qualification, while also contributing to providing fire support for ground forces and enhancing their flexibility. Iraq is also preparing to receive the South Korean M-SAM air defense system during the current month of February to ensure border protection from any potential airspace violations.
However, this is not sufficient, according to many experts who spoke to our agency. Iraq currently lacks comprehensive air defense weapons, advanced missile systems, early warning and air surveillance systems, and ground-based air defense capabilities, which are all crucial military capacities to address external threats. The Iraqi military institution also requires greater functional integration at the operational level. This shortcoming was evident in recent regional wars, where Iraq was unable to enforce its political position prohibiting the use of its airspace for attacks on Iran, a situation that could recur if a new round of US-Israeli confrontation with Tehran erupts.
Military expert Adnan Al-Kinani affirmed that Iraq now possesses advanced air capabilities, including fighter aircraft, drones, short, medium, and long-range ballistic missiles, and air defense systems to protect borders from violations, adding that Iraq has domestic military manufacturing to supply weapons and equipment in the event of aggression or import difficulties, diversified ground forces including special forces, infantry, mechanized infantry, armor, and artillery, as well as electronic warfare capabilities to counter modern threats.
He also stressed the importance of qualified national leadership to guide training, oversee armament, and execute operations, warning that “the presence of unqualified leaders poses a threat to the army’s ability to protect the state.”
There appears to be an urgent need to establish an Iraqi national security strategy that takes into account Iraq’s security requirements in the coming phase. The threat of ISIS remains present, while Israeli military dominance in the region, including its use of Iraqi airspace, raises alarm. The military advancements achieved by neighboring countries such as Turkiye, Iran, and Saudi Arabia necessitate rapid military development to safeguard Iraq’s political position.
This Iraqi reality and need are not hidden from Washington. However, the major challenge lies in convincing it to assist in meeting these needs and strengthening Iraq’s military structure amid USconstraints and reservations, which are unlikely to retreat from ensuring Israel’s dominance on one hand and weakening Tehran and its allies on the other, a dilemma that continues to exhaust Iraq and its attempts to advance on multiple levels.
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.
MILTIAMAN: 🚀 Iraq 2026: Execution Phase Underway? Reserves, Digital Readiness & the Real Effective Exchange Rate
As Iraq steps into 2026, a growing number of analysts argue that the country has moved beyond preparation — and into execution.
The narrative centers around four pillars:
Political clarity
Strong foreign reserves
Low inflation
Digital financial readiness
Let’s analyze whether Iraq is truly positioned for sustained growth and deeper integration into the global financial system.
🇮🇶 Iraq’s Position Entering 2026
According to recent commentary, Iraq is entering 2026 with stronger macroeconomic fundamentals than in previous years.
Key Indicators Frequently Cited:
✔ Increased foreign reserves
✔ Inflation under control
✔ Coordinated fiscal and monetary reforms
✔ Expansion of digital payment systems
✔ Modernized trade and banking frameworks
These are not random developments — they align with long-term structural reform plans supported by international institutions.
🏦 Strong Reserves & Inflation Control
Foreign reserves are the backbone of currency stability.
The Central Bank of Iraq has worked to:
Stabilize the official exchange rate
Narrow the parallel market gap
Increase compliance in dollar auctions
Strengthen reserve buffers
Low inflation is equally critical.
A currency cannot sustainably appreciate if inflation is out of control. Stabilized prices increase domestic purchasing power and investor confidence.
💻 Digital Readiness & Trade Banking Reform
Iraq’s shift toward:
Electronic payments
Banking sector modernization
International trade compliance
SWIFT integration improvements
…suggests alignment with global financial standards.
Digital infrastructure reduces:
Corruption
Cash leakage
Black-market dependency
Informal transaction risks
This modernization is essential for full participation in the international financial system.
🌍 “Gatekeeper Support” & Global Integration
Iraq does not operate in isolation.
Global financial “gatekeepers” include institutions such as:
The International Monetary Fund
The World Bank
International correspondent banking networks
Support from these institutions typically signals:
Compliance with global standards
Progress in anti-money laundering reforms
Transparency in fiscal reporting
Alignment with international monetary norms
That backing strengthens credibility — which is foundational for exchange rate reform.
📊 The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): What Does It Mean?
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) measures a currency’s value relative to a basket of other currencies, adjusted for inflation.
When analysts say:
“The preparation phase for the real effective exchange rate is complete.”
They are suggesting:
Structural reforms have been implemented
Inflation is aligned
Trade balances are improving
Currency distortion gaps are narrowing
However, REER adjustments usually occur gradually — not explosively.
📌 Featured Snippet: What Is the Real Effective Exchange Rate?
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) measures a country’s currency value against a basket of other currencies, adjusted for inflation. It reflects true competitiveness in global trade and is often used to guide monetary reform decisions.
🔄 Preparation vs. Execution Phase
The argument now is that Iraq has transitioned from preparation into execution.
Preparation included:
Banking reform
Digital transition
Fiscal restructuring
Anti-corruption enforcement
Reserve accumulation
Execution would mean:
Implementing exchange rate adjustments
Expanding international currency acceptance
Strengthening cross-border trade settlement
Increasing private sector participation
Execution tends to move “bit by bit” — not overnight.
🧠 Is This Speculation or Structural Progress?
There is documented evidence of:
Banking digitization
Reserve growth
Reduced inflation volatility
Stronger trade compliance
What remains uncertain is timing and magnitude of any exchange rate movement.
Confidence-building measures are visible.
Whether that culminates in a dramatic revaluation or gradual adjustment remains to be seen.
❓ Q&A: Iraq 2026 Monetary Reform
Q1: Is Iraq fully integrated into the global financial system?
Not fully — but integration has significantly improved through digital banking and compliance reforms.
Q2: Does strong reserve growth guarantee a higher exchange rate?
No. It supports stability, but exchange rates reflect multiple macroeconomic variables.
Q3: What does “execution phase” likely mean?
It suggests reforms are being implemented in real-time rather than simply planned.
Q4: Are we near the end of reforms?
Major structural reforms appear advanced. However, monetary transitions often unfold in stages.
📈 The Trajectory Going Forward
If Iraq maintains:
✔ Fiscal discipline
✔ Monetary coordination
✔ Digital transparency
✔ Political stability
✔ International compliance
Then sustained economic growth becomes increasingly plausible.
Currency reform, if it occurs, would likely be rooted in these fundamentals — not speculation alone.
🔥 Hashtags
#Iraq2026 #IraqDinar #DinarRevaluation #REER #CentralBankOfIraq #DigitalBanking #ForexNews #CurrencyReform #GlobalFinance #MiddleEastEconomy #IQDUpdate #EconomicGrowth #MonetaryPolicy
🌐 Follow for Ongoing Updates
📌 BLOG: https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/
📲 TELEGRAM: https://t.me/DINAREVALUATION
📘 FACEBOOK: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100064023274131
🐦 TWITTER (X): https://x.com/DinaresGurus
📺 YOUTUBE: https://www.youtube.com/@DINARREVALUATION
Militia Man
Iraq enters 2026 with political clarity, strong reserves, low inflation and digital readiness, coordinated reforms and trade banking, private sector, digital systems combined with gatekeeper support positions [Iraq] for sustained growth and full participation in the global financial system...So execution phase is underway. I think the trajectory is clear...They fired the shot.
The preparation phase for the real effective exchange rate...I think it's complete. The execution of that process is obviously underway. I don't think anything I'm talking about is speculation...Bit by bit.
..they're bringing confidence to people...We're coming towards the end.
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