Kaperoni
...We all know things don't happen fast in Iraq. Iraq has a lot of work to do in order to succeed. The first of which is pass over 100 stalled laws through Parliament to encourage investment in Iraq. And at the same time the Central Bank of Iraq has to continue reforms to the banking system, digitalization, and apply monetary tools to meet compliance.
A country's exchange rate is the result of the success and growth of their own economy. When you have a weak economy, you have a weak exchange rate. Until Iraq passes laws, diversifies their economy and increases their GDP, nothing will happen with the dinar. When Iraq passed their tripartite 3 year budget a few months back, it created the conditions for them to diversify and privatize their economy over the next three years. Now Iraq is on the clock to accomplish such.
There's a new article out that many people are translating and confusing. They are not talking about an RV in Iraq, they are talking about the spread being in compliance early next year.
Just a reminder the spread is the difference between the official rate and the market rate or street rate and has been way out of whack recently in Iraq. This article simply means they expect the spread to come down closer to the official rate early next year. There is no RV.
A very important statement was made back in 2020 by the prime minister's economic advisor Mohamed Salah who used to be Deputy Governor of the CBI under Shabibi. He stated that Iraq's entire wealth including all minerals in the ground amounts to only $16 trillion dollars. Knowing that information one can then determine that there is no way a significant RV could ever occur with over 90 trillion dinar in circulation. It doesn't make sense...
They...have to have the dinar stabilized within the country and within the 2% rule mandated by the IMF in order to then accept IMF article VIII and begin to float the dinar which would raise its value based on supply and demand. All of these processes and or steps required time.
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2023/12/rv-update-by-kaperoni-10-dec_0650267841.html
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2023/12/rv-update-by-kaperoni-18-dec.html
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