They are clouding the timing on purpose. Remember, they did this when Kuwait went. As Mr. C says “it’s a survival game”.
I do want to point out that I am very upbeat as to where we’re at.
On the Bond side:
Quiet. My one from Tuesday has not responded as to whether they got paid, whether they finished theirs. I finally got a response from them and all they said was “meetings went great, we have another one next week to close another deal”. Does it mean he got paid? Inquiring minds want to know, mine especially but yours probably more than mine and then we’ve got two more meetings today.
I very much believe Bond money started moving, I can’t prove it but very much believe it is moving which is very much why I’m upbeat.
Iraq:
The HCL is underway, it’s all coming together. I’m watching the evidence of them lifting the purchasing power.
What I’m hearing from my contacts is there has been a huge wake up movement in Europe with leadership regarding the Iranian conflict.
United Airlines has their own Refinery but Airlines soon will have to stop flying if this does not force decisions to be made.
WHAT WILL HE CHOOSE? THE SUDANESE GOVERNMENT FACES WASHINGTON’S DEMANDS TO CUT THE SALARIES OF THE POPULAR MOBILIZATION FORCES AND TARGET THE FACTIONS
The head of the Reconstruction and Development bloc, Bahaa al-Araji, revealed that there is a division within the coordination framework regarding the mechanism for choosing the next prime minister, between the “signatures” system adopted by the State of Law bloc and “direct voting,” stressing that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is facing harsh American conditions, including cutting the salaries of the Popular Mobilization Forces and striking some factions .
Al-Araji said in a televised interview followed by Al-Sa’a Network that “Monday’s framework session resulted in the submission of 6 signatures from the State of Law coalition in favor of Basim Al-Badri, while Hadi Al-Amiri proposed the option of direct voting instead of signatures to choose the Prime Minister, and after his intervention the discussion moved to the selection mechanism .”
He added that “the proposed new mechanism is based on the candidate obtaining two-thirds of the votes of the leaders of the framework, and in the second stage two-thirds of the members of the House of Representatives from the framework. It was proposed by Al-Amiri, Al-Hakim and Al-Khazali, but it was rejected by the State of Law, and the discussion about it was postponed to the next session .”
He added that “the upcoming coordination framework meeting will not discuss the selection of the prime minister unless the selection mechanism is decided, with the direct voting option being the most likely to be fair .”
He pointed out that “Al-Asadi did not sign, despite being part of the Reconstruction and Development bloc, and expressed conditional approval related to the signing of other leaders in favor of Bassem Al-Badri, while the bloc did not adopt the mechanism of signatures at all and preferred to vote by raising hands as usual .”
He stressed that “choosing the prime minister is not the most important thing at the moment, but rather the unity of the coordinating framework, especially in light of international discussions related to the Iraqi political system .”
He added that “Al-Sudani prepared his government program before the elections, and it included restricting weapons to the state, and he rejects dealing with the issue with violence and prefers political and legal solutions .”
He explained that “the United States had put forward two main demands during the past period, which were to cut off the salaries of the Popular Mobilization Forces and to strike some factions, which Al-Sudani rejected .”
He explained that “the current stage includes American conditions, which does not mean accepting them, but it requires dealing with them under complex circumstances,” noting that “some strikes that targeted diplomatic interests contributed to strained relations and the departure of a number of missions .”
Al-Araji pointed out that “about 90% of diplomatic missions have left Iraq, especially the Arab ones, as a result of attacks targeting some countries, which has negatively affected the political and economic reality, including the delay in the flow of dollars into the country.
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When analyzing the future of the Iraqi dinar, it is important to separate two things:
👉 what theoretically should happen for a meaningful currency strengthening
👉 and what is actually happening today within the economic system
The role of the Central Bank of Iraq is central in this process, as all monetary reforms depend on its capacity for control, stability, and execution.
🟢🟡🔴 REAL EVALUATION OF THE SIGNALS
🟡 1. Exchange rate market unification
✔️ PARTIAL
Stricter controls on access to U.S. dollars
Attempts to reduce distortions in the parallel market
Still existing gaps between official and informal rates
📌 Conclusion:
Structural progress exists, but full unification has not been achieved.
🟢 2. Foreign reserves
✔️ RELATIVELY STRONG
Steady oil revenues in foreign currency
External reserves provide backing for the system
Ability to sustain current exchange rate stability
📌 Conclusion:
Stable foundation, although highly oil-dependent.
🔴 3. Economic diversification
❌ WEAK / DEVELOPING
Heavy reliance on the oil sector
Limited private sector expansion
Reforms exist but structural impact is slow
📌 Conclusion:
One of the main long-term structural challenges.
🟢 4. Reduction of cash usage
✔️ CLEAR PROGRESS
Expansion of electronic payments
Gradual banking digitization
Increased formalization of transactions
📌 Conclusion:
One of the most visible and concrete reforms.
🟡 5. Political stability
⚠️ IN TRANSITION
Ongoing government formation processes
Continuous internal political negotiations
Significant regional influence factors
📌 Conclusion:
Relative stability exists, but not yet fully consolidated.
🟢 6. Central bank communication
✔️ CONSISTENT
Conservative monetary policy approach
Focus on exchange rate stability
Predictable institutional messaging
📌 Conclusion:
A stable and coherent institutional stance.
📊 OVERALL SUMMARY
🟢 Confirmed progress:
Cash control and digitalization
Relatively stable reserves
Consistent central bank communication
🟡 Partial progress:
Exchange rate market unification
Political stability
🔴 Weak areas:
Economic diversification
⚖️ FINAL CONCLUSION
Iraq is currently in a phase of:
👉 monetary system modernization and institutional strengthening
but not yet in a phase of:
👉 full structural currency value transformation
This means:
✔️ Foundations for future stability are being built
✔️ Reforms are real and ongoing
❌ But conditions are not yet fully aligned for a major shift in currency value
🧠 FINAL MESSAGE
Although the process is slow and often complex, economic history shows that real monetary transformations do not happen suddenly, but through the gradual accumulation of stability, reforms, and trust.
👉 For those following the dinar with expectations of a possible revaluation—even a gradual one—the key point is this:
systems do not change overnight, but they do evolve when the right foundations are consistently built over time.
💡 In that sense, as reforms, stability, and financial modernization continue in Iraq, there is always space for a long-term perspective where the currency could gradually strengthen if fundamentals keep improving.
Patience in economics is not passivity: it is the observation of how the real conditions for a currency’s value are slowly being built step by step.
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MP: REPEATEDLY POSTPONING MEETINGS TO DECIDE ON THE PRIME MINISTERSHIP COULD OPEN A DOOR FOR FOREIGN INTERFERENCE
MP Mukhtar al-Youssef, from the Badr parliamentary bloc, warned on Tuesday against the repeated postponement of meetings of the Coordination Framework regarding the selection of the largest bloc’s candidate for the position of the next prime minister. He called on the framework’s leaders to resolve the issue next Wednesday, as further delays could open the door to foreign interference.
Al-Youssef told the Information Agency that “the leaders of the Coordination Framework are obligated to their constituents and the Iraqi public to resolve this issue in next Wednesday’s meeting,” warning that “continued postponement will have undesirable repercussions on the political landscape.”
He added that “failure to resolve the prime minister issue as quickly as possible could open the door to foreign interference in national affairs, which is completely unacceptable.”
It is worth noting that the leaders of the Coordination Framework held a meeting Monday evening without reaching an agreement on the largest bloc’s candidate for the next prime minister, and the meeting was postponed until Wednesday.
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💵 IRAQ AND CASH CONTROL: A STRATEGY OF STABILITY AND FUTURE MONETARY FLEXIBILITY
Monetary reforms in Iraq, led by the Central Bank of Iraq, have sparked an important debate: are these changes purely about modernization, or do they also indirectly prepare the system for potential future adjustments in the value of the Iraqi dinar?
From a technical perspective, what is clear is that Iraq is building greater control over its financial system, especially through cash management and financial digitization.
💵 1. Cash control: more than an operational reform
Reducing reliance on physical cash means:
Greater traceability of transactions
A smaller informal economy
Less circulation outside the banking system
Stronger visibility over real economic activity
📌 This allows the state to better understand “what is actually happening” inside the economy.
🏦 2. Why this is being done now, not later
In cash-heavy economies:
Inflation is harder to measure accurately
Monetary policy becomes less effective
Parallel (informal) dollar markets emerge
Exchange rate control weakens
📌 That is why reforms are implemented first:
The system must be structured before more complex monetary policies can be effective.
⚖️ 3. Does this prepare a potential future revaluation?
This is where interpretation enters the discussion.
A more controlled financial system:
✔️ Improves monetary policy precision
✔️ Reduces distortions from parallel markets
✔️ Strengthens trust in the local currency
✔️ Makes any future exchange rate adjustment more manageable
📌 In theory:
A more formal and controlled system makes any future monetary adjustment easier, including a gradual strengthening of the currency.
🧠 4. Key distinction: capacity vs intention
It is essential to separate two ideas:
✔️ Confirmed reality:
Iraq is building:
Monetary control systems
Financial digitization
Reduced dependence on cash
❌ Not confirmed:
That these reforms are specifically designed to trigger a revaluation of the dinar
📌 In economic terms:
Having the capacity for a policy change does not mean there is an intention to implement it.
🌍 5. Real signals to watch (if a true revaluation were ever being prepared)
Economists typically look for concrete indicators before expecting a meaningful currency revaluation:
🟢 1. Gradual exchange rate liberalization
Reduced central bank intervention
More market-driven pricing mechanisms
🟢 2. Sustained increase in foreign reserves
Strong and stable accumulation of external assets
Significant financial buffers in hard currency
🟢 3. Real economic diversification
Reduced dependence on oil revenues
Growth in non-oil exports
🟢 4. Full unification of exchange rates
Elimination of parallel market distortions
A single, credible exchange rate
🟢 5. Clear official monetary communication
Explicit central bank policy signaling
Legal and regulatory preparation for structural changes
📌 If these signals are not present together:
There is no strong economic basis to expect a structural revaluation in the short term.
🧭 CONCLUSION
Cash control in Iraq should primarily be understood as:
✔️ A financial modernization reform
✔️ A tool to increase institutional control over the monetary system
✔️ A way to reduce internal economic distortions
And only indirectly:
✔️ A framework that could support future monetary flexibility if macroeconomic conditions evolve positively
📌 Final idea:
Iraq is not signaling an imminent revaluation, but it is building a system where, if major monetary adjustments were ever needed in the future, they could be implemented with greater control and lower systemic risk.
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Daily Iraqi dinar updates with insights from popular dinar gurus.
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We are not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or bank.
🔗 Blog: https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/
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