Iran plans railway extension to Iraqi Kurdistan
Friday, November 3, 2023
"RV UPDATE" BY NADER FROM MID EAST, 3 NOV
Nader From The Mid East
I heard a debate the other day...If Iraqi citizens care about the exchange rate or not. Here it is. The regular people like you and me they don't pay attention to it because for them it's the same thing...
But exchange companies, governments, offices...big things like that cares about the exchange rate because it's a lot easier to deal in small amounts...So regular people don't care about it...Me I care about it a lot. Why? Because it will make easier for me to pay people and get paid from people.
You guys saw all this news coming out. This is getting exciting and excited more and more. It's amazing. I think things are happening...It's good what's happening. Now the big fight against the corrupted people...
Al-Adad: Iraq is in a transitional stage in electronic payment, and there is no scarcity of dollars, 3 NOV
Al-Adad: Iraq is in a transitional stage in electronic payment, and there is no scarcity of dollars
The advisor to the Prime Minister, Amer Al-Adad, denied any scarcity of dollar liquidity in Iraq, while confirming that the country is undergoing a transitional phase in electronic payments.
In a televised interview, Al-Adad stated that electronic payment points are a device that enables individuals to pay with an electronic payment card at points of sale. This technology is intended to increase the transparency of money movement in the country and preserve public money. It is part of a larger program aimed at transforming the country’s banking system. The objective is to leverage electronic technology to boost citizen confidence in the banking system and to channel household savings into the banking system. This will help stimulate the circular flow of the economy.
He said that the BUS system can help reduce corruption and cash loss. The government is making decisions to promote electronic payments and the possibility of using the payment system via phone. There is a strong political will to adopt this system. However, some merchants are hesitant to use electronic payment methods due to concerns about tax assessment. To ease their apprehensions, the government has provided many reassuring messages and exemptions to encourage the adoption of this system.
Al-Adad stated that there are currently between 7 million to 9 million cards in Iraq and this number will increase due to the imposition of fees. We are currently in a transitional period to avoid any confusion in the market. After this period, the emphasis will be on the electronic payment system. Al-Adad also mentioned that the culture of electronic transactions promotes transparency and helps in avoiding financial blackmail.
According to him, the reason behind the difficulties faced in development is the lack of a proper plan since the Reconstruction Council. He denied the claim that the government is facing financial instability due to a shortage of liquidity, and emphasized that there is enough money available, including hard currency earned from oil sales and currency auctions.
Al-Adad mentioned that there exists a reform management cell which is not solely responsible for administrative reforms, but also oversees the implementation of reform projects approved by the state within the government’s curriculum. The cell has a clear vision and aims to ensure effective execution of these projects.
During a recent discussion, he stated that there are two tracks they are working on: the government program and the implementation of the program and reform plan by the ministries. Additionally, the economic reforms currently being implemented by the government are being taken seriously and closely monitored. Upon further review of the reform program, it was discovered that the targets did not align with the goals. As a result, new targets have been established for each goal.
Al-Adad stated that the current government is the first to create a plan that benefits future administrations. He acknowledged that external variables, such as fluctuations in currency values, and internal political stability, play a role in economic growth. However, he emphasized that Iraq is fortunate to have both political stability and high oil prices, which have contributed to the improvement of the Iraqi economy.
During a recent interview, the speaker highlighted some of the challenges that the state faces in terms of structure and circular flow. These challenges include the collection of taxes and customs, as well as weak confidence in the banking system. To tackle these issues, the government is focusing on developing a new plan for the knowledge economy and is seeking new ways to diversify financial revenues. The speaker emphasized the government’s commitment to changing the structure and diversity of the Iraqi economy. Finally, the speaker expressed their belief that the mixed sector experience has been proven to be a failure in Iraq and is therefore useless.
Al-Adad stated that although collection is the responsibility of the state, the private sector has taken over this type of contract. The experience of electronic collection of electricity has been largely successful, as demonstrated in Anbar. Investment in this sector depends on reforming the banking system.
The government led by Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani is being very careful when it comes to the issue of people’s assets, lands, and residential complexes. They are working on a plan to support prices. When the former regime fell, it was discovered that Iraq had a debt of 200 billion dollars due to the purchase of materials without paying for them to operate factories.
Al-Adad stated that they are conducting a study to enhance the status of state-owned industrial companies, which include both mixed and governmental sectors.
Al-Adad has concluded that the government’s plan to improve the agricultural situation is crucial. With the current scarcity of water, the government is taking action towards sustainable agriculture through high-tech and closed agriculture. This will help reduce water consumption by up to 90%. Although Iraq lacks this technology, the government is working to include it in their development plans.
DINAR IRAQ & DONG VIETNAM UPDATE , 3 NOV
The government is watching very closely two sectors today.
One is the war between the proxy Iranian Hamas fighters vs the Israeli army in the Gaza strip.
An article in today’s news describes the possible impacts of this war on Iraq but not yet.
The Parliamentary Finance Committee renewed on Tuesday, its support for the Central Bank’s measures to control the exchange rate and address any obstacles.
Remember in my last Newsletter dated 10/31 that we learned that the new government of Al-Sudani made promises in his administrations curriculum to bring back the dinar stronger than the dollar.
Is this why he has openly in public stated the dinar is already stronger than the dollar?
Well then….. where is it?
As investors we wait for it.
We can see many events in-line with January 2024.
I want to bring you up to date on my latest conversation with my CBI contact as of this past Wednesday, yesterday. It was told to me that the re-education campaign is still going forward but not yet rolled out as of yet.
There is talk in the CBI it may be postponed due to the Gaza strip conflict, but no action or direction has been given to signify this as of yet.
I think they, like us, are holding our breath and praying his conflict will be short-lived and not the beginning of the huge middle eastern drag our war engulfing many other countries.
Why America's invasion of Iraq should be a warning to Israel, 3 NOV
Why America's invasion of Iraq should be a warning to Israel
IIsrael’s ground offensive against the Gaza Strip has started in earnest. The Israeli government maintains that its objective is to eliminate Hamas, but if it is successful in that aim, it is unclear what – if anything – it is planning for the day after.
Numerous American and European officials have warned Israel against the consequences of what might follow. In a clear reference to the war in Iraq, US President Joe Biden said: “After 9/11, we were enraged in the United States. When we sought justice and got justice, we also made mistakes.”
Mr Biden is correct that what happened in Iraq in 2003 should be instructive for Israel. However, based on his comments and on what has transpired since, he appears to have learned the wrong lessons from the invasion that took place two decades ago.
The US President appears to have told the Israelis that America’s catastrophe in Iraq was caused by poor or inexistent planning, and that that was caused by the fact that the US was still in a state of rage after the 9/11 attacks.
The first obvious point here is that the US invaded Iraq 18 months after 9/11, and that whatever rage it felt in the days and weeks after the attacks had clearly dissipated by then. Indeed, any review of the historical record will unearth countless analysts and decision makers who openly argued that the US had already achieved its objectives in Afghanistan and who wondered why an invasion of Iraq was necessary.
The second problem with Mr Biden’s comments is that planning was never the issue for the US in Iraq. The real issue was that there was no amount of planning that would have led to a good outcome.
The main reason for that is that the US did not invade in a historical vacuum. It had already been engaging with Iraq for decades, including in the 1980s when it supported Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran, in 1991 when it bombed vital civilian infrastructure, and during the 1990s with its totally ineffectual and inhumane sanctions regime.
The point is that by 2003, the US was so distrusted and indeed so hated in Iraq that its invasion was bound to start an insurgency and was always going to motivate the international extremist movement to fight against it in Iraq.
Of course, Mr Biden is correct to suggest that the US engaged in faulty planning in 2003.
The original plans were drawn up based on exchanges with a section of the Iraqi community in exile who fed US officials with delusional expectations of what would happen after an invasion. Those plans were abandoned and replaced twice by the summer of 2003. However, although it is easy to stop there and to attribute everything that followed to this poor planning, there is much more to it than that. In fact, less than a year into the occupation, the US authorities had already recovered and were outmanoeuvring Iraqi political and social forces.
But the point is that there was almost nothing that the US could have done to overcome the levels of distrust and bad will that had been accumulating for decades and that were then translated into violence.
The lessons for the Israelis here are obvious: if it ends up reoccupying all or parts of Gaza, it will have to deal with the historical legacy of its own behaviour, including mass expulsions of Palestinians, decades of occupation, a system of apartheid that is increasingly overt, human rights abuses and much more. All of this has given rise to levels of distrust and hatred that will make it impossible to govern that territory.
In response, Israeli officials and analysts have been suggesting that, if Israel is successful is conquering the entire enclave, some type of arrangement will be struck with other actors to take control of Gaza. Some have suggested that the Arab League should step up and lead a stabilising force. Others have said that the Palestinian Authority should be invited to govern Gaza. Others still have said that an international force could assist.
And on this point, Iraq is also instructive.
In 2014, after ISIS took control over large parts of Iraq, the Iraqi government mobilised to liberate its territory. Many analysts, officials and commentators suggested at the time that it could not be done based on the assumption that the local population was so supportive of ISIS that it would always resist a takeover by the Iraqi state.
In fact, the opposite was true – residents in Tikrit and elsewhere were begging for the government to liberate their cities as their only viable escape from ISIS. And the Iraqi government received support from an international coalition for that purpose, which collaborated on several fronts.
After the liberation was complete, the same people who had been described as irrecoverable ISIS supporters all gladly returned to their homes, under the cloak of relative safety that had been provided by the Iraqi government.
The difference with the situation that Israel is now facing in Gaza could not be starker.
The reality is that if it manages to reoccupy Gaza, no one will provide any manpower to support it. No one will step up to occupy the territory on Israel’s behalf. There is no army in the region that will provide assistance, and western nations have no direct interest in getting involved. Finally, Gaza’s local population will be overtly hostile to any form of renewed direct occupation.
Whatever Israel does, it will not be able to overcome the legacies of the past century on its own. Its only solution is to strive for justice for all, a goal that is perhaps more distant today than it has ever been.
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