Saturday, September 14, 2024
DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: US Military Presence in Iraq Post-Withdrawal: Details as of September 2024, 14 SEPT
US Military Presence in Iraq Post-Withdrawal: Details as of September 2024
As of September 2024, the United States and Iraq have reached a significant milestone in their negotiations regarding the presence of US forces in Iraq post-withdrawal. The preliminary agreement includes the maintenance of a small military force in the Kurdistan Region to provide security guarantees for the Kurds against Iranian-backed militias. This decision underscores the strategic importance of the region and the need for continued security presence amidst regional tensions.
The Residual Force in Kurdistan
The US is expected to maintain a small military presence in the semi-autonomous Region of Kurdistan. This decision comes as part of a broader agreement that includes the withdrawal of most US troops from Iraq over the next two years, with the residual force focused on providing security in the Kurdistan region. The move is seen as a security guarantee for the Kurds, who have faced threats from Iranian-backed militias.
The Global Coalition's Role
Currently, the US has around 2,500 troops in Iraq and approximately 900 in neighboring Syria, serving as part of the Global Coalition formed in 2014 to combat ISIS. This coalition includes forces from countries such as France and the United Kingdom. The agreement between the US and Iraq aims to gradually reduce this presence, with the departure of hundreds of Coalition troops by September 2025 and the remainder leaving by the end of the following year.
The Withdrawal Agreement
The agreement for the withdrawal of Coalition forces from Iraq is largely finalized, pending final approval from both countries and an official announcement. The announcement was initially expected weeks ago but was delayed due to regional tensions linked to the war in Gaza and ongoing negotiations over remaining details.
Iraq's Perspective
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani's advisor, Hussein Alawi, has indicated that a joint announcement on the planned withdrawal will be made soon. Alawi noted that Baghdad wants to restore relations with the US to their pre-2014 status, emphasizing that the need for the Global Coalition ended with the defeat of ISIS and that Iraqi forces are now fully capable of handling security matters efficiently.
The US and Iraq's Future Relations
The agreement marks a significant shift in US-Iraq relations, reflecting Iraq's desire to assert more control over its security and sovereignty while maintaining a strategic partnership with the US. The maintenance of a small force in the Kurdistan region is a compromise that acknowledges the ongoing security challenges in the area.
Washington Post reveals details of US military presence in Iraq ‘post-withdrawal’, 14 SEPT
Washington Post reveals details of US military presence in Iraq ‘post-withdrawal’, 14 SEPT
The Washington Post reported that the initial agreement between Washington and Baghdad on the presence of American forces will provide for the abandonment of a small force in the Kurdistan Region whose task is to provide security guarantee for the Kurds against Iranian-backed militias.
The newspaper quoted an Iraqi military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity while talking about the plans that have not yet been announced, as saying that the United States is expected to remain a small military force in the semi-autonomous region.
The United States has about 2,500 troops in Iraq and about 900 in neighboring Syria, as part of the coalition it established in 2014 to fight Islamic State. The coalition also includes troops from other countries, especially France and the United Kingdom.
Reuters revealed last week, citing several informed sources, that Washington and Baghdad reached an understanding on a plan for the withdrawal of coalition forces from Iraq.
The sources explained that the plan includes the exit of hundreds of coalition forces by September 2025 and the rest by the end of the following year.
Reuters reported that the plan has been largely agreed and is waiting for final approval from the two countries and a date for its announcement.
The official announcement was initially scheduled to be issued weeks ago, the sources said, but it was postponed due to the regional escalation linked to the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip and to settle some of the remaining details.
The Washington Post quoted Hussein Allawi, an adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al-Sudani, as saying that there will soon be a joint announcement on the planned withdrawal.
Allawi added that Baghdad “wants the relationship with the United States to return to what it was before 2014,” noting that “the need for an international coalition ended with the defeat of ISIS, and now the Iraqi forces are fully capable of dealing with the security file efficiently.”
The White House and the US Department of Defense did not respond to the newspaper’s requests for comment, as did Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder, at a press conference on Thursday, refused to confirm the withdrawal plan.
If the withdrawal is complete, it will be the second time the United States has withdrawn most of its forces from Iraq since it overthrew the regime of former President Saddam Hussein in 2003.
The newspaper says that “as with the first American exit in 2011, the American withdrawal is likely to leave behind an Iraq burdened with major security weaknesses, sectarian divisions and corruption, which are problems that helped in the emergence of ISIS in its time.”
Dana Stroll, a former senior Pentagon official who is currently a research director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the return of U.S. forces a decade ago became necessary when Iraqi security forces largely collapsed amid ISIS attacks.
“I doubt that any U.S. president will send troops back if Iraqi leaders don’t take steps to prioritize the counterterrorism mission,” Strol adds.
This must “include preventing the country from becoming a playground for Iran, addressing rampant corruption, providing official security forces with resources and empowerment and ensuring that the government responds to the needs of all Iraqis.”
According to sources familiar with the secret talks, some U.S. lawmakers were briefed on withdrawal plans.
Among them is Rep. Adam Smith, the most prominent Democratic member of the House Armed Services Committee, who described the future presence of U.S. forces as a major political challenge for Iraqi leaders.
“The Iraqi people prefer that there are no American forces, and they prefer that there is no ISIS either, and they understand that we are helping to solve this problem,” Smith said in an interview with the newspaper.
“The Iraqis want us to leave, and they want to know how to achieve that. That’s not easy.”
Democratic Senator Jack Reid, who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee, said the issue combined a set of complex interests for both countries.
“The Iraqis are aware that our presence provides stability, but there is also a danger to our forces,” he added.
Reid noted that US officials were not happy that the new Iranian president, Massoud Bazhkian, made Iraq its first foreign destination, as the Sudanese officially received him on Wednesday.
Republican Rep. Corey Mills, an Iraq war veteran and a member of the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services Committees, said he was particularly concerned about Iran’s influence and the militias it backs.
Although Mills is not opposed to withdrawal in principle, he stressed the need for a plan to ensure the stability of Iraq, “I think you have an obligation, if you destabilize a country, to help it stabilize again.”
The agreement comes after more than six months of talks between Baghdad and Washington that Sudan began in January amid attacks by Iranian-backed Iraqi armed groups on U.S. forces stationed at bases in Iraq.
Attacks using rockets and drones killed three U.S. soldiers and wounded dozens, leading to several rounds of deadly U.S. response that threatened the government’s efforts to stabilize Iraq after years of turmoil.
Al-Sudani said earlier that U.S. forces, while appreciating their assistance, had become an attraction for instability, being frequently targeted and usually responded with attacks without coordination with the Iraqi government.
Coffee with MarkZ and Mr. Cottrell. 09/13/2024
DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: IMF Article VIII and Its Implications for Iraq in 2024, 14 SEPT
IMF Article VIII and Its Implications for Iraq in 2024
In 2024, the relationship between Iraq and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under Article VIII of the IMF's Articles of Agreement has been a significant focus of economic discussions. Article VIII centers on the provision of regular economic consultations and surveillance by the IMF, aiming to promote stability and growth in member countries. For Iraq in 2024, these consultations have led to critical assessments and recommendations regarding fiscal policy, economic diversification, and structural reforms.
Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy
The IMF's 2024 Article IV Consultation highlighted Iraq's projected economic growth, driven by fiscal expansion. The expansion is expected to boost growth in the short term but raises concerns about fiscal and external account vulnerabilities in the medium term, particularly in relation to oil price volatility. The IMF recommended a significant fiscal adjustment, emphasizing the need to control the public wage bill and increase non-oil tax revenues to ensure fiscal sustainability.
Economic Diversification and Structural Reforms
Recognizing Iraq's heavy reliance on oil revenues, the IMF underlined the importance of economic diversification to reduce vulnerability to oil price shocks and foster long-term growth. Recommendations included enabling private sector development through labor market reforms, modernizing the financial sector, restructuring state-owned banks, and reforming the pension and electricity sectors. These reforms are crucial for absorbing the expanding labor force, boosting non-oil exports, and broadening the tax base.
Non-Oil Economy and Inflation
The non-oil sector of Iraq's economy is projected to continue growing, although risks persist, including potential declines in oil prices or extended OPEC+ cuts. Headline inflation has declined, reflecting lower international food and energy prices and the impact of currency revaluation. Despite this, Iraq's fiscal position worsened due to lower oil revenue and increased expenditure.
Iraq's Relationship with the IMF
Iraq's membership with the IMF since 1945 has involved regular economic surveillance and lending commitments. The most recent loan from the IMF, approved in 2016, aimed to help Iraq manage lower oil prices and maintain debt sustainability.
Concluding Thoughts
The implications of IMF Article VIII for Iraq in 2024 underscore the need for balanced fiscal policies, economic diversification, and structural reforms. While the fiscal expansion is expected to stimulate growth in the short term, sustainable economic development will require addressing the country's reliance on oil revenues and implementing reforms to foster a more resilient and diversified economy.
LATEST FROM PETRA : ABOUT THE IMF ARTICLE VIII & IRAQ, 14 SEPT
Petra
They were expecting Iraq to be IMF Article VIII compliant or at least having agreed to the obligations that requires. One of those requirements is having all restrictions lifted, which comes to Article XIV.
They've been using a lot of pieces of Article VIII to get to where they are now. But they've never accepted the article, which is very simple. It's basically a document that Alaq and Sudani agree to. They sign it and send it to the IMF accepting all portions of Articles VIII.
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Petra
Early Monday morning was the article demonstrating the fact that Sudani was considering changing the rate of the dinar from 1310 to 1.32 which for us in the United States is $0.79...
Then the very next day we get an article talking about the new small category notes. They're talking rate, they're talking notes. And then you got Tannini the Commerce Director there talking about a surprise could happen within hours in regards to their monetary reform...
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/03/rv-update-by-petra-15-march.html