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Rome Awaits: U.S.-Iran Nuclear Drama Enters High-Stakes Second Act
4/14/2025
By
ERBIL —
The United States and Iran are preparing for a second round of high-level nuclear negotiations set to take place in Rome on Saturday, following a significant shift in format during the initial talks in Muscat. , the Trump administration has expressed satisfaction with the first round of talks, which successfully transitioned from indirect, mediator-led discussions to direct dialogue between top officials.
In a striking development not previously disclosed in full detail, Axios reported that the U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a face-to-face meeting that lasted approximately 45 minutes. According to sources cited by Axios, this encounter was described as "substantive, serious, and excellent," and marked the highest-level dialogue between American and Iranian officials in over eight years.
The shift to direct communication has been welcomed by Washington, with U.S. officials viewing it as a breakthrough that could lay the groundwork for a more stable and transparent diplomatic process. The choice of Rome as the venue—a suggestion from the American side—reflects Washington’s desire to shape the setting of future negotiations. Although Iranian officials have downplayed the possibility of another direct-format meeting, the presence of both delegations in the same room remains on the table.
Saturday’s extended Muscat encounter, held under the mediation of the Omani foreign minister, took place against a backdrop of mutual distrust. Iranian negotiators raised their longstanding concern about the reliability of U.S. commitments, citing former President Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as a major breach. In turn, the U.S. delegation voiced skepticism about Iran’s intentions and the transparency of its nuclear program.
Despite the underlying tensions, both sides reportedly emerged from the meeting with a shared sense of purpose. Officials familiar with the discussions told Axios that avenues for continued engagement remain open, though Iran continues to stress that its primary objective is the lifting of U.S. sanctions—a stance reiterated on Sunday by the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson.
According to the report, the United States is now pushing for Iran to take tangible steps to distance its nuclear program from potential weaponization. One proposed measure is the "downblending" of Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, which experts warn is sufficient to produce as many as six nuclear weapons if further enriched.
Following the Muscat talks, Witkoff briefed President Donald Trump in Washington on Sunday, providing a direct account of the negotiations. He also updated Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, as well as officials from Gulf nations. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Araghchi held conversations with his counterparts from Qatar, Kuwait, and Egypt, underscoring the regional dimension of the unfolding diplomacy.
Looking ahead, the second round of talks in Rome is expected to be accompanied by another crucial diplomatic move: a visit to Tehran by Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Grossi is slated to discuss enhanced monitoring and verification procedures at Iranian nuclear facilities, a topic central to rebuilding international trust in the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities.
Adding context to Iran's motivation for continued engagement, notes that the country’s economic crisis is a powerful driving factor behind its return to the negotiating table. Iran’s currency is among the weakest globally, inflation remains over 30%, and the population is facing rising food prices and unemployment. Sanctions reimposed after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 have severely strained Iran’s economy, already burdened by systemic corruption and mismanagement.
According to the report, the economic pain is most visible among Iran’s shrinking middle class and the rural poor. Basic goods have become unaffordable, and financial insecurity has pushed many to desperate measures. Iranian officials fear that worsening economic conditions could threaten the regime's stability at a politically sensitive time, especially with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei aging and concerns growing over succession.
Observers, including Sanam Vakil of Chatham House, argue that Tehran views sanctions relief as essential to survival and believes that Trump, despite his hawkish stance, may deliver more pragmatic concessions than previous administrations. Yet many experts, such as Djavad Salehi-Isfahani of Virginia Tech, caution that Iran is unlikely to agree to sweeping reforms. Instead, it may continue a strategy of offering limited compliance to maintain talks while extracting incremental economic relief.
While skepticism remains—particularly in Israel, which has lobbied the White House to prepare a military contingency if diplomacy fails—the emerging dialogue represents a pivotal attempt to defuse tensions and reestablish guardrails around Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The face-to-face meeting between Witkoff and Araghchi in Muscat may have been brief, but it has shifted the diplomatic tone and format, potentially laying the foundation for what could be the most significant U.S.-Iran engagement since the collapse of the JCPOA. All eyes now turn to Rome, where the second act of this high-stakes negotiation drama is set to unfold.
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