Shafaq News/ The American website “Real Clear Angry”, which specializes in energy affairs, considered that the arrival of the date of March 7 represents an occasion to test the Donald Trump administration team on whether it will push Iraq to “liberate itself from the grip of Iran” by getting rid of Iranian energy resources, by stopping the US presidential exemptions that allow Baghdad to obtain gas and electricity exports from the Iranians.
The American report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, explained that the validity of the last exemption from sanctions granted by the Joe Biden administration for a period of 120 days, which allows the export of Iranian gas and electricity to Iraq, expires on March 7, 2025.
The report indicated that the Trump administration had spoken of its intention not to sign the waivers again in the second presidential memorandum related to national security, dated February 4, which reactivated the maximum pressure policy against Iran.
The website considered in its report that Washington should end the exemption, because Iraq is now closer to achieving energy independence, at a time when Iran is repeatedly cutting off energy supplies to Iraq due to shortages inside Iran, adding that the United States must help Iraq stand on its feet for the first time in the summer of 2025.
After the report mentioned that Iraq had obtained for more than a decade the American exemption under the National Defense Authorization Act (the American defense budget) in 2011, which extends to countries that have significantly reduced their purchases of Iranian oil or in cases where there is an interest in American national security, it indicated that this exemption extended to Iraq, including during Trump’s first term.
The report saw that Iraq could make the transition away from Iranian supplies next summer, by relying on local resources such as fuel oil, which Iraqi organizations classified by the US as “terrorist” and supported by Iran, are smuggling oil to international markets.
The report considered that getting rid of the Iranian threat network represented by Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime, in addition to Iranian air defenses, means that the opportunity has become available to loosen Iran’s grip on Iraq, but on condition that the momentum is maintained, noting that Iraqi leaders are currently waiting for a sign that the Trump administration has a different and more powerful policy towards Iraq than the Biden team.
The report noted that several important issues revolve around the perceptions of the Iranian-backed militias that run Iraq: Should they release the hostages that the Trump team is trying to free? Should they honor contracts signed with American investors in the Kurdistan Region? Should Iraq import American or Iranian gas? Should Iraq lift the arrest warrant against Trump himself because he ordered the killing of “terrorist” leaders on Iraqi soil?
The report continued that the Trump administration’s second national security presidential memorandum explicitly states that “the Secretary of State must modify or revoke sanctions waivers, particularly those that provide Iran with any degree of economic or financial assistance.”
Whether the Trump team implements this policy or falls at the first hurdle is the issue at hand, the report added.
Therefore, the report said that there is no more logical time than now to push Iraq towards the finish line of energy independence from Iran, adding that if Iraq switches to using liquid fuels for months, its dependence on Iran next summer could decline to at least 4% (not 40%) of peak power generation, indicating that this could insulate Iraq from the effects of a shortage of Iranian supplies by switching to primary resources that Iraq has.
The report concluded that the threat of rejecting the exemption, in light of the shortage of Iranian supply, will push Iraq for the first time to move quickly to replace Iranian energy resources, by accelerating plans to import electricity from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and using ships to import liquefied natural gas to the Iraqi coast.
The report warned that this trend should be encouraged and supported more, which would be in Iraq’s interest as well as in the national interest of the United States, explaining that ending presidential exemptions from sanctions on March 7 could begin to liberate Iraq from Iran’s grip.
The report pointed out that this trend could be accompanied by strengthening media materials directed at Iraqi public opinion, which show the extent of the unreliability and high cost of Iranian energy supplies, in addition to the urgent need to reduce dependence on Iran in the end.
Translation: Shafaq News Agency
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