RAMADAN REVIVES THE IRAQI DINAR AND OFFICIAL EXPECTATIONS OF A CONTINUED DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR, 14 MARCH

 RAMADAN REVIVES THE IRAQI DINAR AND OFFICIAL EXPECTATIONS OF A CONTINUED DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR

The exchange rate of the US dollar in the parallel market in Iraq declined significantly during the first and second weeks of Ramadan, recording 1,480 dinars per dollar, or less than that, from 1,520 dinars before the beginning of the month.

The decline is due to several factors, most notably the strict measures taken by the Central Bank of Iraq to control imports and electronic money transfers, in addition to the decline in economic activities of the Iraqi citizen during the month of Ramadan.

“strict measures”

Government advisor Alaa Al-Fahd says the decline in the dollar price in the parallel market is due to the Central Bank’s implementation of strict measures aimed at controlling imports and electronic money transfers.

He added that this measure reflects the success of the Central Bank’s monetarypolicy, as Iraqi banks have begun to implement correspondence operations with international banks with which they have commercial relations. He added that diversifying the currency basket contributed significantly to easing pressure on the dollar, and that most imports of consumer and food goods are financed through the official platform of the Central Bank and at the official price, stressing that any trading outside this framework is considered unofficial dealing.

Al-Fahd praised the Central Bank’s announcement of implementing digital transactions and encouraging tourism, stressing that these steps contributed to easing pressure on the parallel market for exchange rates.

Al-Fahd expected the market to remain stable, especially with most of the needs of Ramadan and the Eid season being covered through the official platform and at the official price, noting that expectations indicate a continued decline in the dollar price in the coming period.

The exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar increased significantly in the last week before Ramadan, recording 1,520 dinars per dollar for sale and 1,510 dinars for purchase in the main stock exchanges, but in the first week of Ramadan, the exchange rate recorded a significant decrease, reaching 1,465 dinars per dollar for sale and 1,475 dinars per dollar for purchase in the main stock exchanges in Baghdad, Erbil and Basra.

In the second week of Ramadan, the exchange rate rose slightly, recording 1,485 dinars per dollar for sale and 1,480 dinars per dollar for purchase, with a variation up or down not exceeding two and a half dollars.

The exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar is affected by several main factors, including:

-Daily sales volume in currency auction

-Central Bank procedures related to external transfers

-The need of traders to import goods, especially from countries subject to US sanctions, which increases the demand for the dollar in the parallel market.

-Smuggling the Iraqi dinar to other countries to benefit from price differences.

“Ramadan is a game changer”

For his part, economic expert Ahmed Al-Ansari believes that the decline in demand for the dollar during the month of Ramadan is mainly due to the decline in economic activities of the Iraqi citizen, which is evident in the decline in the movement of real estate, cars and basic services.

Al-Ansari explained that the weak purchasing power of citizens also contributed to reducing the volume of imports, which led to a reduction in demand for the dollar in the parallel market.

He added that the Central Bank’s measures aimed at reducing imports through the black market and encouraging traders and importers to import through approved banks and convert the dollar at the official price were an additional reason for this temporary decline.

Al-Ansari expected a strong recovery in the markets after Ramadan and by Eid al-Fitr, which could lead to a slight increase in the dollar price or a return to its previous level, stressing that the dollar price is greatly affected by the strength of supply and demand in the market, as it rises whenever demand for it increases in the parallel market.

He pointed out that the continuation of the facilities provided by the Central Bank, such as providing travelers’ dollars, will encourage citizens to deal at the official price and avoid exchange offices and banks that sell dollars at higher prices.

On February 7, 2023, the Council of Ministers approved the decision of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Iraq to amend the exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar, equivalent to 1,300 dinars per dollar, obligating banks to sell at a rate of 1,310 dinars per dollar and at a rate of 1,320 dinars per dollar for currency transfer operations when using electronic cards while traveling or online, with a ceiling of 3,000 dollars at the official rate granted to each traveler who presents a visa and a travel ticket with his official passport.