Predictions of global economic variables and their impact on the Iraqi economy (2025-2030)
In light of the analysis of the current situation of international variables economically, politically and security and the extent of their expected effects on the Iraqi economy. With a scutify eye to the challenges and crises that the national economy has experienced, affected by the economic crises that major countries have suffered economically.
The strategic conflicts between America and China and the alignment of some countries with the US strategy to lead the world economically and other countries are moving towards the strategy of China and some emerging countries to establish a new international economic pole to confront American hegemony.
One of the most prominent results of this conflict is the global crisis in energy and food, which has lasted for more than a decade and continues to plagh countries with rit, weak and poor economies and prevent them from moving structurally and comprehensively to emerging economies that are able to withstand and overcome the effects of global economic conflicts.
Since mid-June 2014 and the first quarter of 2020, the Iraqi economy has faced complex and accumulated challenges due to the changes in the global economy and the slowdown in global economic growth of the conditions of the American-Chinese conflict, the Corona pandemic, the fight against terrorism, the decline in global oil prices and its reach of decline rates that exceeded 70%,
economic recession and damaged most countries due to those repercussions, which had their effects on the Iraqi economy, and what interests us is what are the results of these repercussions and what are the expectations, effects and their repercussions on the current economic reality in Iraq during the coming years and until 2030.
In the light of the study and analysis, my mayati can be expected at the level of the global economic system and the repercussions of this on Iraq:
First, the decline in growth rates in the global economy is expected, affecting the American economy and the economies of the European Union countries in China and Russia, but at varying rates, and the economic recession will prevail in most countries of the world.
This will be reflected in the slowdown in GDP growth by rates ranging from (4-10%) in oil-producing and non-producing Arab countries, especially after the countries of the geographical region entered new challenges due to the Zionist aggression on Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. This created a new complex circumstance that will have negative effects on the national economy.
Second, the new global economic system, which we expect to emerge in the coming years, will inevitably be formed and will have a clear economic and financial leadership for America and China. It will make the Silk Road to include the countries that were planned to pass through to revive their economies. It will actually be achieved. It is expected to achieve the path of development and there will be an important role for Iraq and for the countries participating in the project.
Third, the philosophy of economic management will also shift in general, from the capitalist market economy to the social market economy that is currently adopted as a disciplined ideology, as in China and some countries of the world. It is just early expectations and the Arab economy will probably belong to the new pole, the largest and economically stronger.
So what is required of economic decision-makers in Iraq in the face of these developments and variables that are expected to sweep the world. I see from an insightful analytical view of the current economic reality that we urgently need a radical and comprehensive economic change and reform that adopts the following basic axes:
First, re-changing the map of national income resources by reducing dependence on oil as a major resource by activating other resources in the coming years to reach 30% of the total general budget resources.
Second, radical and comprehensive change of agricultural, industrial, trade, oil, energy and water policies by adopting local resources in securing food and water security, encouraging, protecting and supporting the local product and developing programs and strategies in consumer protection.
Third, supporting, developing and stimulating the private sector and benefiting from its capabilities, potentials, capital and investments in building the national economy and involving it in economic decision-making and managing the economy.
Fourth, drawing clear strategies for coordination between monetary and financial policies, drawing clear financial policies and re-establishing the preparation and presentation of annual general budgets on the basis of programs, not items. The weight of the budget deficit to the legally specified ratio to GDP, as well as reducing domestic borrowing to the lowest possible and not borrowing from abroad at all.
Fifth: Completing the new methodology adopted by the Central Bank in reform, banking development and digital transformation in all digital fields, with a focus on implementing the Central Bank’s strategy and the development of the financial position and using artificial intelligence in the analysis, transparency and accuracy of data for the purposes of proper planning of the economy and to overcome the challenges of instability in the financial system and the monetary system. This means developing coordinated and balanced plans to overcome the challenges of monetary policy and the challenges of the non-oil income deficit, the deficit in the balance of payments, the trade balance and the percentage of the contribution of the productive sectors (real economy) to GDP.
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