In A Graphical Analysis.. The Months With The Most And Least Impact On The Fluctuations Of The Dollar Against The Dinar Since 2005, 2 MARCH

 In A Graphical Analysis.. The Months With The Most And Least Impact On The Fluctuations Of The Dollar Against The Dinar Since 2005

Time: 2025/02/28 12:20:11 Read: 2,235 times  {Economic: Al Furat News} Economic expert Manar Al-Obaidi stated that the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar in the parallel market has witnessed noticeable fluctuations over the course of twenty-one years, as a result of being affected by political, legislative and economic factors, with supply and demand dominating as the most influential factors.

Al-Obaidi explained in a statement received by {Euphrates News} a copy of it, after analyzing the exchange rate data from 2005 to 2024, that there is a recurring pattern that reflects the dinar’s value being affected by specific months more than others.

He pointed out that December was the month with the most frequent increase in the value of the dinar, as it witnessed a decline in the exchange rate against the dollar in thirteen years out of twenty-one.

He added, “It is followed by August and June with increases in the value of the dinar against the dollar in eleven years, then April with ten times, while October and November witnessed an increase nine times, and March eight times.”

Al-Obaidi continued, “As for May, it was the month with the least frequent decrease in the value of the dinar, as its value rose during it only four times throughout the period studied, which gives the impression of a relationship between the seasonality of demand and the exchange rate, as the value of the dinar usually rises in the months of February, March and April, then declines again in May with the return of strong demand.”

The economic expert noted that "despite this clear seasonal effect, there are other factors that cannot be ignored, such as the levels of dollar sales by the Central Bank of Iraq, which directly affect the size of the money supply in the market, in addition to the timing of the general budget launch and geopolitical factors that may cause sudden disturbances in the demand for foreign currency."

He pointed out that the seasons of the year remain one of the main elements in determining the exchange rate trends in Iraq, as a recurring pattern appears at the end of the year and the beginning of the fiscal year, in addition to the market being affected by official holidays in countries exporting goods to Iraq.

 However, monetary policies and political and economic developments continue to have a direct impact on the parallel market, making it necessary to monitor all these variables to understand exchange rate changes more accurately."   LINK