Gulf Keystone shares rise on Full-Year Results, 21 MARCH

 Gulf Keystone shares rise on Full-Year Results

By John Lee.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) today announced its results for the full year ended 31 December 2024. Shares were trading up more than two percent at lunchtime.

Jon Harris (pictured), Gulf Keystone's Chief Executive Officer, said:

"2024 was a year of strong operational and financial delivery for Gulf Keystone. We have sustained our positive momentum into 2025, with year to date gross average production of c.46,400 bopd, strong local sales demand and a disciplined expenditure programme supporting continued free cash flow generation. As a result, we are pleased to announce today the declaration of a $25 million interim dividend as we reiterate our 2025 operational and financial guidance. We remain focused on facilitating a solution to restart oil exports as we continue to seek fair and transparent agreements regarding payment surety, the repayment of receivables and the preservation of current contract economics."

Highlights to 31 December 2024 and post reporting period

Operational

• Zero Lost Time or Recordable incidents in 2024, well below the relevant Kurdistan and international peer benchmarks, with safety track record extended to over 790 LTI-free days as at 18 March 2025
• 2024 gross average production of 40,689 bopd, an 86% increase versus the prior year (2023: 21,891 bopd)
  • Reflects a full year of local sales in 2024 following the impact of the suspension of pipeline exports in March 2023
  • Despite temporary disruptions to truck availability during regional holidays and elections and the impact of the planned PF-1 shutdown in November 2024, strong local market demand from Q2 2024 onwards enabled the return to production at full capacity in several months
  • Average realised price for 2024 sales of $26.8/bbl, with prices stabilising in a range of c.$27-$28/bbl in H2 2024
• 2025 year to date (to 18 March 2025) gross average production of c.46,400 bopd:
  • Continued strong local market demand, with realised prices averaging between $27-$29/bbl

Shaikan Field estimated reserves

• The Company estimates gross 2P reserves of 443 MMstb as at 31 December 2024, reflecting the Company's year end 2023 internal estimate of 458 MMstb reduced by gross production of 15 MMstb in 2024

Financial

• Strong financial performance, with a full year of robust local sales combined with capital and cost discipline underpinning a return to free cash flow generation and the restart of shareholder distributions
• Adjusted EBITDA increased 52% to $76.1 million in 2024 (2023: $50.1 million) as higher production more than offset the decline in realised prices related to the transition from exports to discounted local sales
  • Revenue increased 22% to $151.2 million (2023: $123.5m) as the increase in 2024 volumes more than offset the 34% decline in average realised price to $26.8/bbl (2023: $40.9/bbl)
  • Gross operating costs per barrel decreased 21% to $4.4/bbl (2023: $5.6/bbl), primarily reflecting higher production and a continued focus on efficient operations
• Net capital expenditure of $18.3 million (2023: $58.2 million), reflecting the Company's disciplined work programme comprised of safety critical upgrades at PF-1 and production optimisation expenditures
• 2024 monthly average net capital expenditure, operating costs and other G&A of $6.8 million, below the Company's guidance of c.$7 million
• Free cash flow generation of $65.4 million, relative to a $13.1 million outflow in 2023, funding the restart of shareholder distributions and preservation of a robust, debt-free balance sheet:
  • $45 million of shareholder distributions in 2024 consisting of $35 million of dividends and $10 million of share purchases completed under the buyback programme launched in May 2024
  • 2024 year-end cash balance of $102 million (31 December 2023: $82 million)
  • Cash balance as at 19 March 2025 of $115 million

Outlook

• 2025 operational and financial guidance reiterated:
  • Gross average production of 40,000 - 45,000 bopd:
    • Subject to local market demand remaining at current strong levels
    • Continues to reflect assumptions regarding the planned PF-2 shut-in, truck availability during regional holidays and field declines
    • Should there be any significant unforeseen disruptions to demand or the restart of pipeline exports, the Company will update its production expectations as appropriate
  • Net capital expenditure of $25-$30 million:
    • c.$20 million: Safety and maintenance upgrades at PF-2, scheduled for Q4 2025 and expected to require the shut-in of the facility for c.3 weeks, similar to PF-1 in 2024
    • $5-$10 million: Production optimisation programme consisting of low cost, quick payback well interventions
    • Continue to explore range of additional plant initiatives to enhance production, including water handling, with planned reviews later in 2025 based on the Company's liquidity position and operating environment
  • Operating costs of $50-$55 million and other G&A expenses below $10 million
• $25 million interim dividend announced today, the first semi-annual dividend to be paid under the shareholder distributions framework announced on 8 October 2024
  • The dividend will be paid on 23 April 2025, based on a record date of 4 April 2025 and ex-dividend date of 3 April 2025
  • USD and GBP rate per share to be announced ahead of the payment date based on the Company's latest total issued share capital
• The recent share buyback programme of up to $10 million, expiring 20 March 2025, has not been renewed in light of the interim dividend declaration and the strength of the Company's share price
  • Share buybacks will continue to be considered opportunistically by the Board
• The Company continues to proactively engage with government stakeholders regarding a solution to enable the restart of Kurdistan crude exports through the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline:
  • Several recent meetings held with the Kurdistan Regional Government and Federal Government of Iraq
  • The Company remains ready to resume oil exports provided we have agreements on payment surety for future oil exports, the repayment of outstanding receivables and the preservation of current contract economics

(Source: GKP)