IN LIGHT OF THE LIQUIDITY CRISIS… WHY DOESN’T IRAQ RESORT TO PRINTING MORE CURRENCY?
Iraq is facing increasing challenges due to the scarcity of cash liquidity, which negatively affects the markets and daily financial transactions. While some are looking for quick solutions to overcome this crisis, the option of printing more local currency remains controversial, given the serious economic repercussions that may result from it.
The Iraqi government faces challenges in managing cash liquidity in dinars, as it suffers from a chronic shortage of this currency, which affects its ability to meet its financial obligations to pay employee salaries, repay debts, and finance projects.
Since the 1990s, and specifically during the period of the economic blockade, Iraq has witnessed hyperinflation in its national currency (the dinar). This situation prompted the ruling regime at the time to take the decision to print the currency locally.
After 2003, the previously circulating currency was disposed of, new denominations with updated designs were issued, and the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar was fixed against the US dollar based on a decision by the then civil governor of Iraq, Paul Bremer, who in turn announced the details of the new currency and its official exchange rate.
Iraq currently has a range of paper denominations that cater to various daily transactions, starting from small denominations such as 250, 500 and 1,000 dinars, all the way to larger denominations such as 5,000, 10,000, 25,000 and even 50,000 dinars that are used in major transactions.
Where is the Iraqi currency printed?
On January 19, 2025, the Central Bank of Iraq revealed new security features on circulating banknotes, with the aim of reducing counterfeiting and protecting the national currency.
According to economic observers, the Central Bank has included these signs in the new banknotes to raise awareness among the public, companies and banks alike.
A source in the Central Bank of Iraq spoke about details related to the process of printing Iraqi banknotes, indicating that “the currency was previously printed in Switzerland, but the printing is currently done at the British Institute in London,” which is considered one of the most prominent institutions specialized in printing currencies globally.
In an interview with Al-Jabal platform, the source explained that “Iraqi banknotes are manufactured according to high-quality specifications, aiming to prevent their rapid damage and ensure their ability to withstand daily use for long periods, through the use of modern materials and technologies that increase their lifespan.”
According to the same source, “the cost of printing one banknote ranges between 4 and 5 US cents, a cost that includes the use of the latest security technologies to prevent counterfeiting,such as watermarks, optically variable inks, and security threads.
In contrast, the Central Bank confirms that currency printing operations are subject to strict standards to ensure their quality and durability. The design of banknotes is also updated from time to time according to technical and security needs, to ensure the currency is protected from counterfeiting and improve its technological properties.
An option on the government’s table
In addition, Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, the economic advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister, says, “Financing the deficit in the general budget through the issuance of cash is a cautious approach, but it remains a possible option in light of the availability of high foreign reserves, capable of covering the money supply of the national currency by no less than 75%.”
Saleh added, during his interview with the “Al-Jabal” platform, that “resorting to this method is temporary and periodic, as 40% to 50% of the issued cash is directed towards internal transactions, not just external transactions, which makes it an available option when needed, provided that the coverage rate remains high according to the mentioned standards.”
Saleh continues his talk by saying: “The monetary policy in Iraq is proceeding according to balanced standards with the fiscal policy, and is consistent with the cycle of oil assets. In the event that oil prices fall to low levels, it is possible to resort to financing the deficit by borrowing from banks and deducting the borrowings from the monetary issuance authority, provided that the coverage equation is maintained until the end of the cycle of falling prices.”
Saleh points out that “the decline in oil prices to below their real value in energy markets is not unusual, and it happens sometimes, which requires dealing with it through balanced monetary and financial mechanisms to ensure the stability of the national economy.”
It is noteworthy that the Central Bank of Iraq issued, in 2018, a second edition of banknotes in denominations (25,000, 10,000, 1,000, 500, 250).
The Central Bank also previously added some technical and technological updates to the 2003 issue for all types of local currency, except for the (50) dinar category, which was withdrawn from circulation in 2015, while at the end of 2015 it issued the (50,000) dinar category to complete the current series in circulation.
Pros and cons of printing
In this regard, financial expert Jalil Al-Lami said, during his interview with Al-Jabal platform, that “the issue of printing local currency is one of the most sensitive economic policies, given its direct impact on the financial and economic stability in the country.”
Iraq, according to Lami, sometimes faces cash liquidity crises due to economic and political challenges. Technically, it can resort to printing currency to cover the deficit, but this does not depend only on technical capacity, but is subject to complex economic determinants such as the level of foreign exchange reserves, the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Iraq, and general economic stability.
Al-Lami added that “the Central Bank of Iraq, as the only body authorized to issue the currency, adheres to strict standards to ensure that it does not harm the national economy,” warning against “unstudied monetary expansion, which could lead to dire economic consequences.
Regarding the positives of printing currency, Al-Lami reviewed some of the potential positives of printing currency, including providing quick cash liquidity, which helps finance salaries and projects and pay urgent obligations, in addition to supporting the economy in crises such as wars or epidemics, in addition to stimulating local demand by increasing the money supply.
Regarding the negatives of printing currency, Al-Lami believes that it may lead to hyperinflation, as when currency is issued without real economic cover, it leads to an uncontrolled rise in prices, in addition to a loss of confidence in the national currency, in addition to the deterioration of the exchange rate as a result of the increase in the money supply without sufficient economic support, and the gap between wages and prices may widen.
Al-Lami suggested a number of sustainable solutions that could help Iraq confront liquidity crises without resorting to printing currency, including “reforming the tax system by improving tax collection and reducing tax evasion to increase government revenues and diversify sources of income, in addition to internal and external borrowing and reducing unnecessary expenses.”
Other proposals, according to Al-Lami, include “enhancing foreign investment and reforming the financial and banking sector.”
The former governor of the Central Bank, Mustafa Makhif, announced in 2022 that “the bank is working on completing a new denomination worth 20,000 dinars based on a study and comparative research with neighboring countries, and is working on completing the shape of the note and it will be announced in the coming days.”
At the time, he also spoke about the “issue of deleting zeros from the local currency,” and stressed that “the process of deleting zeros from the currency requires enacting a law and making some amendments.”
Numbers and statistics
The Iraqi government decided to change the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar in 2020, as the price was adjusted from 1,182 dinars per dollar to 1,450 dinars per dollar.
This decision sparked widespread popular discontent, especially after the prices of food and all commodities in the markets witnessed a significant increase, and this change was confirmed in the federal budget approved by the Iraqi Council of Representatives on March 31, 2021.
Data from economist Nabil Al-Tamimi indicate that printing any currency clearly contributes to increasing inflation, as the increase in the volume of cash in circulation leads to an increase in prices. Therefore, countries are keen to avoid printing money to cover the deficit in their budgets except in limited and studied proportions, through which they try to achieve a balance between the volume of cash circulation and economic activity, i.e. the gross domestic product, which is known as natural inflation.
Al-Tamimi continued, in his interview with Al-Jabal platform, saying: “In some cases, monetary authorities may resort to withdrawing part of the cash and drying up the markets to control inflation, despite the economic slowdown that may result from that.”
According to Al-Tamimi, “Increasing the volume of printing leads to an increase in demand for hard currency, especially in countries that depend on importing goods and services, such as Iraq. The more local currency in circulation in dinars, the higher consumer spending, and most of this spending goes to imported goods and services that are paid for in foreign currency, which leads to an increase in demand for the dollar.”
In a free market, Tamimi said, “this could lead to fluctuations in the exchange rate, but if the central bank intervenes through a currency auction, the daily sales volume will increase to maintain monetary stability.” Data indicates that the Iraqi central bank’s dollar sales have reached about $300 million a day, compared with about $180 million a day in previous years.
He added, “The Central Bank of Iraq relies on its foreign currency reserves on government revenues from oil sales, which change according to the fluctuations of the oil market, as the reserve ranges between 50 and 100 billion dollars. To ensure monetary stability, the Central Bank’s accounts must be based on the minimum reserve, i.e. 50 billion dollars, to cover imports and control local demand for hard currency at approximately this level.”
Al-Tamimi concluded his speech by saying, “The period from 2003 to 2019 witnessed a relatively balanced monetary policy regarding printing currency, as the total issued currency during this period amounted to about 55 trillion dinars. However, the monetary policy during 2020 and 2021 led to clear inflation, with the volume of issued currency doubling to more than 100 trillion dinars. This was reflected in a significant increase in prices, as the inflation rate reached about 15%.”
Many years ago, the Director of Issuance at the Central Bank, Ihsan Al-Yasiri, said, “The Central Bank of Iraq prints a thousand 25,000-dinar notes in the most reliable international companies at a cost of less than $60,” noting that “the bank will not spend a large amount of cash to print the new banknotes, because their cost is low.”
(Yes, so you just heard it “the bank will not spend a large amount of cash to print the new banknotes, because their cost is low.” So no more excuses as to why you can’t do the Project to Delete the zeros due to a high cost of printing the new lower denominations, which we know are partly already printed anyhow.)
No comments:
Post a Comment