A burning economic debate.. Is raising the exchange rate the magic solution for the Iraqi economy?, 19 FEB

 A burning economic debate.. Is raising the exchange rate the magic solution for the Iraqi economy?

An ongoing debate among economists in Iraq about the effects of adjusting the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar on the national economy, especially in the fields of agriculture and industry.

The opinions of experts and officials vary between supporters and opponents of changing the exchange rate, with a focus on how this will affect the productive sectors and the overall economy.
In 2020, the Central Bank of Iraq decided to adjust the exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar, as the purchase price of the dollar from the Ministry of Finance reached 1,450 dinars, while its selling price to banks was set at 1,460 dinars, and to citizens at 1,470 dinars per dollar.

In February 2023, the Central Bank of Iraq announced another adjustment in the exchange rate, to become 1,300 dinars per dollar, as the decision came in an attempt to control inflation and achieve stability in the general price level.

Protecting the Iraqi Dinar
In turn, economic expert Alaa Al-Fahd believes that “the current exchange rate represents a balance that protects the value of the Iraqi Dinar and maintains the general price level, which helps protect the poor classes.”

“The main reason behind the rise in production costs is due to the rise in energy prices, not the exchange rate,” he told Iraq Observer.

“The real problem that hinders the rise of productive sectors, especially agriculture and industry, is related to the energy crisis, especially electricity, as this crisis leads to higher production costs, which prevents the development of these sectors,” Al-Fahd added, noting that “countries like China have a low exchange rate for their currency, and despite that, their industry is thriving, which means that the decline in the currency may be an opportunity for the growth of local production, and not necessarily an obstacle to development.”

Historically, the Iraqi dinar has witnessed fluctuations in its value. In 1980, the dinar was equivalent to 3.3 US dollars, but its value deteriorated during the Iran-Iraq war, falling to about 4 dinars to the dollar in 1988. After the invasion of Kuwait and the imposition of an economic blockade in the 1990s, the value of the dinar deteriorated significantly, reaching about 3,000 dinars to the dollar in 1995.

Raise the exchange rate
On the other hand, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, Ihsan Shamran, believes that “industry will not rise unless the state finds itself in it, and neither will agriculture unless the exchange rate is changed, as the current rate is unfair, and the Iraqi exporter sells goods at any price and makes a profit because the dollar is very cheap. ”

Shamran added in a press statement that “the cheap dollar is pushing some exporters to sell any commodity inside Iraq in exchange for the dollar, as the exchange rate should be between 2,000-2,500 dinars per dollar, considering that the Iraqi currency is very strong due to its high balance.”

He pointed out that “Iraq has reserves of nearly 120 billion dollars against a trading source estimated at 103-104 trillion dinars, which gives the Iraqi currency a cover of nearly 170%, which is not a small matter, but the relationship with the dollar requires adjusting the exchange rate to achieve the required balance.”

Experts have differed on the impact of these amendments on the Iraqi economy. While some believe that devaluing the dinar enhances the competitiveness of local products and reduces the budget deficit, others believe that it leads to higher living costs and negatively affects low-income groups.

Economists believe that the real problem lies in the structure of the Iraqi economy and its heavy dependence on oil, in addition to challenges related to energy and infrastructure, which hinder the development of other productive sectors. link