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FRANK26: "AGAIN... THE WORLD IS WAITING FOR TRUMP."..........F26
4 days separate Iraq from a phase full of "unexpected events"
1/16/2024
Iraq is awaiting a transitional phase full of political, security and economic transformations. Perhaps the next four days will be decisive in the country’s relationship with the United States of America, as Donald Trump will officially assume the US presidency on January 20.
Observers believe that Iraq will be the main front that the United States will deal with in the next stage, considering that it is the only remaining front in which Iran is still strongly present.
At a time when Iraq does not have the freedom to choose between renaissance and sustainable development with the United States, and remaining in a cycle of crises with Iran, it does not even have the option of neutrality and holding the stick in the middle between the two parties, according to observers.
Observers confirm that Iraq has no friend but America, for many reasons, the most important of which are the Iraqi financial situation and the American care, protection and continuous support for Iraq since 2003 until now.
In the details, political researcher Ramadan Al-Badran told Shafaq News Agency, "Trump's arrival to the US presidency is a return to the files he opened in his first term, and he wants a stable Middle East that cares about the economy and development in a way that contributes to finding alternative sources of funding and production to China, which support the American economy in particular and the Western economy in general."
Al-Badran added, "Trump's vision for the Middle East is for it to be an ally of America and the West in terms of economic integration, and anyone who stands in the way of this will be considered against American and Western interests."
“Therefore, Trump will be harsh and firm with Iran and with anyone who cooperates with it in a way that does not serve his vision. Consequently, he will target Iran directly and alone this time, especially with the development of the situation in the Middle East and the collapse of all lines of bargaining and Iranian pressure in the region and the world. It (Iran) is retreating on the confrontation front, and it has not yet met any of the world’s requirements for non-interference in the affairs of other countries, armament, nuclear, ballistic, and other matters,” he continued.
Regarding Iraq's position, Al-Badran explains that "Iraq has nothing but America's friendship, for many reasons, the most important of which are the Iraqi financial situation and the American care, protection, and support for Iraq that has continued since 2003 until now."
He points out that "Iraq will lose America if it tries to continue to hold the stick in the middle between Iran and America, because the latter only accepts friends, and therefore Iraqi policy needs to exercise strict and firm decisions in this regard."
Al-Badran believes that "the factions are perhaps one of Iraq's knots, so he has to be firm with them because he does not have time, because Trump will need a clear vision, decisions, and policy."
Settlement equation
For his part, strategic expert Ahmed Al-Sharifi told Shafaq News Agency, "Trump's policy will differ according to the balances that are taking place in the Middle East, which began with an international settlement between Russia and the United States, as evidenced by the withdrawal and handover between Bashar al-Assad's regime and the entry of the factions that currently represent the direct ruler in Syria, followed by a regional settlement including the selection of a president and prime minister in Lebanon, as well as the changes that are taking place in the Gaza agreement, and the most important equation is what is called the local settlement affected by the regional settlement and the international settlement."
Al-Sharifi points out that “Iraq will suffer from a transitional phase in which Trump’s program contradicts the political path in Iraq. He wants to bring about a radical and comprehensive change, and implementing that depends on the reactions of both parties, to remove a political group that is no longer convincing to the United States, the sponsor of the political project in Iraq and its direct supervisor, and the United Nations, the observer of the political change in Iraq.”
Al-Sharifi expects that “Trump will move to remove part of the ruling class loyal to or linked to Iran, because it is time to resolve the situation according to regional and international balances. As for politicians in Iraq, they no longer have the opportunity to freely choose as before, to choose between renaissance and sustainable development with the United States or to choose to remain in the cycle of crises with regional balances.”
He explains, “The United States gave Iraqi politicians the opportunity to choose, but they chose regional balances. They are divided into two groups, one side leaning towards Turkey and the other towards Iran. Both sides seek to undermine any role of regional balances and the United States, as evidenced by the targeting of the (SDF) forces supported by the United States. The same is true for the armed factions in Iraq supported by Iran, as they seek to abort the issue of integration in international relations between Iraq and the United States.”
Al-Sharifi added, "Therefore, the political system failed to choose the United States, so the latter will change it towards it by force, whether through sanctions, direct containment, physical liquidation via drones, or a demonstration and overthrow of a government. All possibilities are possible."
Main Front
In turn, Professor of International Relations, Firas Elias, believes that “Trump’s new policy towards Iraq will be based on new paths that differ from his first term, so he is in the process of reproducing a new path on several levels (security, political and economic).”
Elias told Shafaq News Agency, "The United States of America is in the process of re-establishing a safe distance between Iraq and Iran, specifically in the security and economic fields, as well as liberating Iraqi foreign policy from some of the restrictions it faced during the past period, especially with regard to the necessity of reintegrating Iraq into the regional system that began to take shape after the ceasefire agreement in Gaza."
He continues, "There are new regional balances, and the title of this was containing Iran in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, and thus Iraq will be the main front that the United States will deal with in the next stage, considering that Iraq is the only remaining front in which Iran is still strongly present."
He added, "Therefore, it is expected that the American preconditions that were discussed in the past period regarding the dissolution of the armed factions and the production of a new mechanism to deal with the weapons of the factions, come in the context of an American preemptive phase before Trump's arrival to the White House, because maintaining the state of conditional truce that Iran had previously dealt with during Trump's first term, is not possible to continue in the second term."
Elias explains, "This justifies America's demands to dissolve the armed factions, because the United States needs to create a state of political and security stability in Iraq in the next phase, in order to secure the Syrian arena and maintain the regional balances that emerged in the period following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime."
He points out that "since Iraq represents one of the threats to stability and peace in the Middle East, the Trump administration will be concerned with resolving the Iraqi situation in any way and in a manner that will push Iran to deal with a logic that is desired regionally and internationally. Therefore, Iraq will be a central issue on Trump's policy agenda during the coming period."
Elias expects that "Iraq will have four years ahead of it, full of political, security and economic transformations with the United States of America."
For his part, prominent Iraqi politician, Mithal Al-Alusi, told Shafaq News Agency, "The difference between the Trump administration and Biden is that the latter's administration sought to contain Iran with a soft-road policy, and thus Tehran exploited Washington and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard rushed to seize political, military and governmental decisions in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon."
Al-Alusi added: “As for Trump, he is against Iranian hegemony over the peoples and countries of the Middle East. Rather, the Trump administration will support calm and peace projects in the Middle East, including Israeli-Palestinian or Saudi-Israeli dialogue and peace.”
He points out that "Washington, the Western world and the Arab world understand that Iranian influence in Iraq passes through the Popular Mobilization Forces, and there is no Popular Mobilization Forces without militias and so-called armed factions, and there are no armed terrorist threats inside or outside Iraq through drones or missiles except through the cells of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard under the cover of the factions."
He points out that "the Iranian leader, during his meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, told him that the Popular Mobilization Forces are an Iraqi institution that must be supported and encouraged. At the same time, he said that America is the biggest enemy and that the armed factions affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards must escalate to confront America. This is a smart Iranian tactic, in an attempt to push Trump to carry out assassinations of militia leaders. It (Iran) believes that America will be satisfied with these assassinations and leave Iranian influence in Iraq, but it does not realize that America does not compromise on Iraq."
Al-Alusi confirms, "Therefore, the Iraqi government is required to adopt a national policy that is not Iranian, otherwise Al-Sudani and his government will pay the price for that with the advent of a new era for Iraq and the Middle East that may begin on January 21, and whoever does not realize the evolution of time will pay a heavy price."
The world, especially the Middle East, is awaiting Trump’s arrival to the White House next week, while expectations indicate “an intention to impose economic sanctions on Iran and to continue pressure to limit its influence, which may expose Iraq to economic pressure as well,” according to the spokesman for the Nazl Akhed Haqi Democratic Movement, Khaled Walid.
Walid added to Shafaq News Agency, "This coincides with news about a possible targeting of some faction leaders, as well as talk about a political movement for an expected change. What increases the anxiety of the Iraqi street is the talk of some representatives about a financial crisis sweeping the country."
Walid concluded by saying, "What is happening today is generally related to the fate of the resistance factions and the Popular Mobilization Forces institution, and the government's confirmation that the Popular Mobilization Forces is an official security institution, this reinforces the regional and international pressures towards Iraq and the ruling political class."
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