International Coalition Withdrawal in Iraq: Government-Political Agreement 2024
In a significant development, the United States and Iraq have agreed to initiate talks aimed at setting a timetable for the phased withdrawal of troops and the conclusion of the US-led military coalition's presence in Iraq.
The US has maintained a military presence in Iraq since the 2003 invasion, with troops returning in 2014 to assist the Iraqi government in defeating the Islamic State (ISIL). The presence of US forces has been a contentious issue, particularly among Iran-aligned militias and politicians in Iraq.
The Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced plans to formulate a specific and clear timetable for the gradual reduction and eventual end of the international coalition's presence in Iraq. The statement emphasized Iraq's commitment to ensuring the safety of coalition advisors during the negotiation period and maintaining stability to prevent any escalation of tensions.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed that these discussions would be part of a higher military commission, agreed upon in August 2023, focusing on the transition to an enduring bilateral security partnership between Iraq and the United States.
Regional Tensions Impacting Withdrawal
Recent developments have led to the postponement of announcing a definitive end-date for the US-led coalition's presence in Iraq. Heightened tensions in the region, particularly with Iran, have raised questions about the future of the US military presence in Iraq. The potential for Iranian retaliation against Israel, in response to the killing of Hamas' political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, has added to the uncertainty.
Iran-backed militias in Iraq are exerting pressure on the Shia-led government to terminate the US troop presence. Attacks on US sites in Iraq have increased since October 7, 2023, with the US responding with retaliatory airstrikes against these groups.
Bilateral Relations and Strategic Reevaluation
The US-Iraq relationship has been under reevaluation since the capture of the Syrian town of Baghouz in March 2019, marking the end of the Islamic State's physical control. The US military's return to Iraq in 2014 played a crucial role in helping the country rebuild its national forces, which were weakened by the IS offensive. However, the increasing influence of pro-Iranian factions within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) has complicated the situation, leading to demands for a complete US withdrawal.
Iraq's government, led by Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, is attempting to balance relations with both Washington and Tehran. The ongoing war in Gaza has added another layer of complexity to the dynamics, affecting the strategic relationship between the US and Iraq.
Partial Withdrawal and New Security Agreements
The US and Iraq are nearing a pivotal agreement that would result in the gradual withdrawal of American-led coalition forces from Iraq. Sources close to the Iraqi government have indicated that both parties are in the final stages of concluding the deal, with the understanding that the coalition's mission is drawing to a close. The agreement allows for some international and American forces to remain in the country under new security agreements, focusing on training Iraqi security structures.
Security and Political Developments
Iraq's Defense Minister, Thabit al-Abbasi, held discussions with US officials in Washington regarding future steps to end the Global Coalition's mission against ISIS. Talks have centered on commencing the coalition's drawdown from Iraq in September 2024 and concluding the process by September 2025, with negotiations ongoing regarding the retention of some US military personnel in an advisory capacity.
Amid these developments, Iraq is also striving for regional cooperation in counter-narcotics efforts, hosting an international conference with the participation of neighboring countries to combat the growing issue of drug trafficking.
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