DINAR REVALUATION UPDATE: CONCERNS ABOUT THE STABLE SECURITY IN IRAQ, IRAQ IS SEVERELY TESTED ABOUT THIS, AUGUST 23

Iraqi Government's Struggle to Sustain Truce with Armed Factions

As of August 23, 2024, the Iraqi government has indeed faced challenges in maintaining a truce with armed factions, particularly those supported by Iran. 1 The truce, which was initially agreed upon in October 2023, has been under strain due to the perceived lack of commitment from both the Iraqi and US governments in scheduling the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq. 6 This has led to a resurgence in tensions, with the factions declaring the end of the unofficial truce and threatening new attacks against US military convoys and bases. 6

Stance of Armed Factions

The positions and statements of the armed factions operating under the umbrella of the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" have been clear and consistent, expressing that they are no longer bound by the truce with Washington and that the option of resuming attacks on American bases has become available again . 6 These factions have cited the failure of the Iraqi and US governments to set a clear timetable for the withdrawal of foreign forces as a key reason for their decision.  6

Impact of US Military Presence

The US military presence in Iraq has been a contentious issue, especially after the January 2020 US assassination of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the leader of several Shia armed factions. 6 This event significantly increased pressure on the Iraqi government to demand the withdrawal of foreign forces. Despite the announcement of plans to withdraw US-led coalition troops according to timetables determined by joint technical military committees in April 2024, the actual withdrawal process has not met the expectations of the armed factions. 6

Escalation of Attacks

The recent attacks, including a missile strike on the Ain al-Assad base in Iraq's western desert, where US forces are stationed, underscore the growing tensions and the potential for a significant escalation of violence. 6 At least one missile landed inside the base, though no casualties were reported. 6 These incidents are indicative of the fragile security situation in Iraq and the challenges faced by the government in managing the presence of foreign troops while appeasing domestic armed factions.

Outlook

The Iraqi government's efforts to maintain peace and stability are being severely tested by the breakdown of the truce with armed factions. Ongoing dialogue and negotiations are crucial to finding a resolution that addresses the concerns of all parties involved. However, the situation remains volatile, with the potential for further attacks and increased military confrontations if a satisfactory agreement is not reached.