ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – The Iraqi dinar has been steadily depreciating against the US dollar, driven by a confluence of factors related to regional tensions and domestic economic conditions.
Bilal Saeed, a trade and marketing consultant, has identified five key reasons for the dinar's decline.
The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi Dinar was between 151,700/151,800 IQD for 100 US Dollars in the Kurdistan Region today.
1- Regional Tensions: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah has created a sense of uncertainty and fear in Iraq, leading to capital flight and increased demand for US dollars as a safe haven currency.
2- Domestic Protests: Anti-government demonstrations and protests sparked by Israeli attacks on Lebanon have further exacerbated the situation. Concerns over potential US retaliation against Iraqi Shiite groups, including Hashd al-Shaabi, have also contributed to market instability.
3- Government Spending: Increased government expenditures, financed primarily through the sale of US dollars, have put downward pressure on the dinar. As the government exchanges more dollars for dinars to fund its operations, the supply of dinars in the market increases, weakening its value.
4- Increased Demand for Dollars: Both Iraqi citizens and businesses have been seeking to acquire US dollars, either for investment purposes or to hedge against potential economic instability. This increased demand has driven up the price of the dollar relative to the dinar.
5- Remittances and Regulations: Restrictions on remittances and other regulatory measures have created excess demand for US dollars, as individuals and businesses attempt to transfer funds outside the country.
Saeed predicts that the Iraqi dinar will continue to depreciate against the US dollar as long as regional tensions, particularly the war between Israel and Hezbollah, persist.
The ongoing uncertainty and economic challenges facing Iraq are likely to further exacerbate the downward pressure on the dinar.
They tell you [Iraqi citizens] there is an imminent change coming to your currency almost every day now. That is very exciting. These are the words we've only dreamed about in the last 5 years.
To see them almost every day is rather shocking but very exciting right now...This is getting crazier and crazier every day with so much excitement and so much information about the monetary reform being sent directly pinpointed to you Iraqi citizens from Sudani.
They're giving them a date of when they're going to stop the auctions, the window. Now they tell them we're lifting three zeros, you're getting purchasing power.
They tell them you're getting the HCL. Then they go a step further and they said our currency is going to be stronger than the Jordanian dinar...It's going to be more than Jordan's currency...I believe they're going to reach the REER through the float at around $4.25...
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Frank26
Article: "The government forms a higher committee to adapt Iraq banks to International financial requirements" What does that mean? It means the Iraq dinar is going to float internationally in international markets.
But it's at a program rate?
No it's not.
But it has sanctions on the country?
No it doesn't. Wells Fargo says it's on the OFAC list,
that it's on the 'bad currency' list?
No it's not...That going international requires a new exchange rate. Yes it does.
Shafaq News/ A meeting is currently being held between the Iraqi Acting Parliament Speaker, Mohsen Al-Mandalawi, the Deputy Speaker, Shakhwan Abdullah, and the leaders of political blocs at the office of the "Sadikoun" parliamentary bloc to discuss controversial laws, a parliamentary source reported on Tuesday.
The source told Shafaq News, "The meeting is discussing the agreement to include the controversial laws for a vote in Wednesday and Thursday sessions,” indicating that “there are many laws disputed in parliament, including the Personal Status Law, the General Amnesty Law, and the Law on the Property Restitution Law.”
The amendment of the Personal Status Law has sparked widespread debate within Iraqi society, with both opponents and supporters voicing their opinions. The government has decided to discuss all the concerns raised about it through the Supreme Council for Women’s Affairs.
Opponents argue that the amendment permits child marriage and deprives wives of their rights to alimony and custody, in addition to relying on the religious texts of each sect and denomination as a reference for rulings instead of existing laws.
Since the formation of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s government, the General Amnesty Law has faced an uncertain fate. While political consensus exists around its passage, observers suggest that certain political factions, particularly from the Shiite Coordination Framework, are deliberately delaying the law despite earlier promises made to Sunni parties as a condition for their participation in the government.
The Amnesty Law remains a key demand of Sunni blocs, who insisted on its passage during negotiations to form the current government, which includes Shiite, Kurdish, and Sunni groups. Sunni lawmakers argue that the law, along with security reviews in their governorates, is a central part of the government's platform.
Regarding the Property Restitution Law, Kurdish MPs and officials state that the bill pertains to properties that are returned to their original owners from the Kurds and Turkmen, which were confiscated under eight decisions issued by the dissolved Revolutionary Command Council between 1975 and 1979, aimed at conducting demographic changes in disputed areas.
If you take a close look at the article on the CFTC regarding their next meeting regarding clearing assets and their risks, you will notice that all the items on their agenda deal with clearing digital assets we have talked about this past year.
It is at this precise point of which assets trading with one another are because of a foreign currency exchange representation that is digitized and backed by gold.
This gives us a clue to where we are in the process of building the new digital asset based trading system. It is the exchange of money between countries in digital format that will become the protocols of the new Digital Financial System.
Could we see currency floats during high times of volatility this year? Yes, we might. And, the BRICS System just may be the cause of some of this with the introduction of their payment system and new payment coin being announced in October.
International Payment Systems integration (late this year going into early next year) will be the concluding steps we are looking for as we finalize regulatory laws (this year) that will enable us to move forward.
Many of theses laws are being finalized in the month of October 2024. Two will be done in November. Iraq will conclude their banking reforms in December. And then, we can begin to look for a Bretton Woods Agreement.
Shafaq News/ The Iraqi government has enacted several measures aimed at reducing external public debt, leveraging financial surpluses from increasing oil prices to achieve success in this endeavor. However, domestic debt has surged to over 70 trillion dinars to bridge liquidity gaps and meet operational expenses.
Following the 2003 US invasion, Iraq has continued to rely on external borrowing, particularly during the oil price collapse in 2014, which coincided with military operations against ISIS. Internal borrowing has also been employed to address the country’s budget deficit.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted that internal imbalances in Iraq have intensified due to substantial fiscal expansion and declining oil prices, underscoring “the need to gradually correct the fiscal situation to stabilize the debt in the medium term and rebuild the financial reserves.”
Dead Debts
Jamal Coujar, a member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, characterized the external debt as “dead debt.”
In an interview with Shafaq News, he explained that it relates to the Gulf War and dates back over 30 years. “Countries are not demanding it. Therefore, it is not real debt, and if Iraq were to request its cancellation, it would be canceled,” he stated.
Cojar noted that the internal debt, which exceeds 70 trillion Iraqi dinars, is gradually increasing due to state revenues being lower than expenses. However, he reassured that “it is not alarming debt.
According to official data, Iraq’s internal debt amounts to approximately $50 billion, settled within the official financial and governmental apparatus. Additionally, Iraq has outstanding debts to eight countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait, totaling $40 billion. These debts are questioned in terms of validity from Iraq’s perspective and have not been canceled despite being subject to the Paris Club’s oversight.
Low External Debt
Mudher Mohammad Saleh, the financial advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister, stated in an interview with Shafaq News that “Iraq is among the countries with very low external debt, with total payable debts not exceeding 10 billion dollars.” He highlighted that these debts have annual allocations in the federal budget for repayment, which must be settled by 2028.
Saleh noted that “the external debt consists of remnants from settlements before 1990,” emphasizing that “Iraq is considered to have strong financial credibility, with a high credit rating according to global agencies such as S&P and Fitch.” He added that the external debt constitutes less than 5% of Iraq’s GDP, in contrast to the global standard, which permits debt levels up to 60% of GDP.
Moreover, Saleh pointed out that “there is internal debt amounting to 76 trillion dinars,” primarily caused by two financial crises: the first occurring between 2014 and 2017 due to the war against ISIS and declining oil prices, and the second being the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to the closure of global markets and a significant drop in oil prices, resulting in extensive borrowings.
He emphasized that "the general internal debt does not exceed 30% of GDP and is a debt within the government, not between the government and individuals or the market.” Saleh assured that there are mechanisms for its repayment within the government banking financial system, thus indicating that there are no associated risks.
Debt Is Not the Ideal Solution
Economic expert Durgham Muhammad Ali holds a contrasting view to the financial advisor regarding Iraq’s internal debt situation. In an interview with Shafaq News, he warned that “internal debts pose a risk, as they are due for repayment and should not exceed 50% of the country's annual gross output.”
He stated, “Expanding internal borrowing is not the ideal solution to cover the budget deficit; it is an easy way to address the deficit through primitive but effective means, as long as it does not exceed the required limit, especially given the decline in financial inclusion and the low rates of banking deposits among Iraqi citizens compared to neighboring countries.”
Ali further noted the urgency of combating corruption, “the fight against corruption and the recovery of Iraq’s funds that have been lost over the years are slow and ineffective, facing obstacles and challenges. Recovering these funds could cover a significant portion of the internal debts.”
Hard Currency
Economic expert Hilal Al-Taan told Shafaq News that “internal debts do not have a significant impact on the Iraqi economy, as most of them are owed to the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank, and other ministries.” He confirmed that “the significant impact on the economy comes from external debts because their repayment requires hard currency, whereas internal debts are repaid in the national currency.”
Al-Taan further highlighted that the bulk of the internal debt is owed to the Central Bank of Iraq, along with the Al-Rafidain and Rashid banks, and the Trade Bank of Iraq. These institutions have lent substantial amounts to the government to cover the federal budget deficit, underscoring the need for the state to prioritize reducing external debts first.