Monday, November 6, 2023
"RV UPDATE" BY KAPERONI & PIMPY, 6 NOV
Kaperoni
The dinar cannot go up in value until Iraq diversifies and creates significant economic growth. The current conditions in Iraq will continue to keep the dinar weak...Until they pass laws...there will be no change. We have a window now over the next three years...
PimpyBut where are you going to redeem your dinar at if they are still
under sanctions?
revaluation or if they do an RI will they be released from their
sanctions?
Surge in Dollar Prices Strikes Baghdad and Erbil Amid Stock Exchange Closure, 6 nov
Surge in Dollar Prices Strikes Baghdad and Erbil Amid Stock Exchange Closure
The cities of Baghdad and Erbil in Iraq were hit by a significant surge in dollar prices on Monday, coinciding with the closure of key stock exchanges. In Baghdad, the exchange rate escalated to 166,800 dinars for 100 dollars, a notable increase from the morning’s rate of 164,250 dinars. Local exchange shops followed suit, raising their selling prices to 167,750 Iraqi dinars for 100 dollars. Similarly, in Erbil, the selling price spiked to 166,250 dinars for 100 dollars.
Underlying Factors and Implications
The accelerated dollar prices are primarily linked to rampant speculation on the stock exchanges and an ongoing scarcity of supply in the market. The closure of the Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya stock exchanges disrupted the usual flow of currency exchange, leading to a dollar shortage. This gap has fueled speculation and increased demand, pushing the prices up. The situation is further worsened by the existence of “black transfers”—illegal or unregulated money transfers utilized by small merchants for their imports. Despite government measures to curb them, these black transfers continue to operate, contributing to the crisis.
Seeking Solutions
The Iraqi government, along with the central bank, bears the responsibility of resolving this crisis. One suggested approach involves engaging in dialogue and negotiation with the American side to tackle the issue of black transfers. The government aims to legitimize and regulate these transfers to bridge the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates. However, this solution necessitates cooperation and coordination between various stakeholders, both within Iraq and with external partners.
Economic and Geopolitical Implications
The surge in dollar prices carries broader implications for the Iraqi economy. The high exchange rate has led to an increase in the prices of goods and commodities, affecting the purchasing power of Iraqi citizens. The rising cost of living strains households, especially those with limited income. It also impacts businesses negatively, as higher import costs and inflationary pressures challenge profitability. Besides, the surge in dollar prices coincides with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Iraq. His presence in the region amid warnings from Iran-backed groups adds another layer of complexity to the situation, highlighting the need for diplomatic efforts to maintain stability in the region.
Iraq’s Central Bank Witnesses Surge in Foreign Exchanges Amid Economic Challenges, 6 nov
Iraq’s Central Bank Witnesses Surge in Foreign Exchanges Amid Economic Challenges
The Central Bank of Iraq’s (CBI) foreign exchanges have witnessed a substantial 86% rise, hitting a marked $199 million in cash sales. These transactions, covered at an exchange rate of 1,305 dinars per dollar for various exchanges and at the rate of 1,310 dinars per dollar for foreign transfers, primarily bolstered balances abroad in the form of transfers and credits, amounting to $199,757,755. Cash dollar purchases were made by four banks, while 22 others sought to enhance their foreign balances. A total of 48 exchange and intermediary companies engaged in the auction.
Implications of Rising Dollar Prices
Despite this significant increase, concerns over escalating dollar prices in Baghdad and Erbil have induced market closures. Adding to the economic instability are reported Turkish artillery attacks in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Further exacerbating the economic challenges is the surge in gold prices in both cities.
US Federal Reserve Restrictions: A Restricting Factor
Moeen al-Kadhimi, an Iraqi lawmaker, attributes the Iraqi government’s inability to control the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Iraqi dinar to the US Federal Reserve’s restrictions on external transfers from Iraqi banks. These impediments have affected daily transactions necessary for merchants, leading them to source US dollars from the parallel market, thereby inflating the exchange rate despite the Central Bank’s efforts.
Long-term Policies: The Need of the Hour
Al-Kadhimi proposes long-term policies to liberate Iraq’s financial system from growing US imposed restrictions. Suggestions include depositing oil deal revenues in the central bank instead of the US Federal Reserve and using other hard currencies in oil transactions. Al-Kadhimi perceives these restrictions as politically motivated. Despite market fluctuations, he opines that the Iraqi markets remain relatively stable. However, the consequences of rising dollar prices and market closures are significant for the economy and the Iraqi citizens.
Conflicting Reports and Speculations
Despite the challenges posed by these rising dollar prices, speculations on the Iranian Rial and the Dollar in Iraq have led to heavy losses. As the dollar recovers, dollar exchange rates in Iraq have seen a decline, and gold prices have dropped. The CBI has dismissed news about dealing with the ‘Libyan dollar’ as fake, hinting at potential misinformation.
The complexity of Iraq’s financial system is evident. While the CBI reports a significant increase in foreign exchanges, rising dollar prices, market closures, and US Federal Reserve restrictions continue to challenge the Iraqi economy. It is imperative for the government and relevant authorities to address these issues and implement long-term policies for financial stability and to mitigate impacts on Iraq’s citizens.
"RV UPDATE" BY MARKZ & NADER FROM MID EAST, 6 NOV
MarkZ
[via PDK] Seems that things appear to be heating up…so many rumors.
Chatter continues to be great and we will see if anything happens over this weekend. We have a lot of group leaders that seem to think this is it.
Here is another one that is putting pressure on this “re-valuation” "Amid war on Gaza – Egypt see highest exchange rate on US dollar in black market” So in the middle east the dollar is gaining and will cause regional issues and inflation. They are painting themselves in a corner without a reset. They need rate changes.
Nader From The Mid East
Purchasing power...when you buy for $100 over here [U.S.], over there [In Iraq] cost you $200. If it [dinar rate] goes to 1 to 1 if you buy it in America for $100, we'll buy over here for $100 too.
TNT TONY SUMMARY, 25 NOV
TNT TONY SUMMARY 1. Ray was very excited. Tony said that Ray was trying to reveal the good things. 2. Tony said that he had a special week...
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Frank26 [Bank story] This time we didn't go down, we just called [the bank]... We said we want to see if we can exchange some cu...
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Bank appointment for Currency EXCHANGE Instructions/Checklist Bank Name_________________________________________ Bank 800#____________...
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Walkingstick All these meetings that the CBI had with all these agencies that were helping them with their monetary reform are done. Al...