Tuesday, August 22, 2023
An American Analysis Describes Iraq As “More Like A Country Under International Tutelage”, 22 AUGUST
An American Analysis Describes Iraq As “More Like A Country Under International Tutelage”
2023-08-22 Shafaq News/ The “Washington Institute” for Strategic Studies published an analysis of the situation in Iraq and the crises it is going through at the internal and external levels, and the failure of successive federal governments to rule recently and temporarily, describing Iraq as “more like a country under international tutelage.” At the same time, he did not rule out the return of the country under the seventh clause. The analysis stated that the declining political and legal reality in Iraq today indicates that the country is still facing a deep strategic dilemma as a result of the international obligations and restrictions imposed on it.
According to the analysis of the American Institute, “Decades after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, Iraq is still practically under the influence of dozens of UN resolutions and sanctions as a result of the aggression launched by Saddam Hussein against Kuwait.
Despite Iraq’s official removal from Chapter VII sanctions of the United Nations Charter in June June 2013, and his commitment to pay final dues that exceeded $50 billion in compensation to Kuwait in February 2022.
However, there are some issues that are still outstanding between the two countries, while Iraq struggles to obtain the description of a “normal country” and to integrate into the international community.
The analysis also stated that, in fact, returning Iraq from describing a “state that resorts to violence” to describing a “normal state” requires complex policies and procedures that take a long time.
Moreover, the problem of Iraq’s failure to integrate with the international community is due to the ongoing internal crises. Since 2003, successive governments have plunged the country into complex internal crises of conflicts, terrorism, corruption, chaos and political polarization.
Instead of returning Iraq to its normal state, these governments have turned into “caretaker governments” and each of them issues crises to the next government.
He pointed out that Iraq “has become in a situation similar to a state under international tutelage. Even today, the state is no longer able to fulfill its obligations under the strategic framework agreement concluded with the United States, its main ally.
Despite the tireless efforts made by the Iraqi government under the prime minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, however, Iraqi officials must realize that there is no real development for Iraq without ensuring its full commitment to the consequences of the decisions of Chapters VII and VI of the United Nations Charter related to Kuwait and other issues.
The analysis touched on a summary of the obstacles that Iraq still faces and the possible steps it can take to maintain its reputation as a stable and responsible country at the international level.
Avoid the violations set forth in Chapter VII
The analysis said that although Iraq was officially removed from Chapter VII sanctions in 2022, it still faces the risk of violating many United Nations resolutions, which in turn could lead to the reactivation of Chapter VII.
In particular, Iraq needs to heed Paragraph 32 of UN Resolution 628 which “requires Iraq to inform the Council of its commitment that it will not commit or support any act of international terrorism or allow any organization to commit such acts within its territory.”
The American Institute pointed out that “Iraq has always been willing to host a number of dangerous militias supported by Iran, including groups that the United States has included on the terrorist list such as Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Kata’ib Hezbollah.
And with the Shiite coordination framework now in power, the roles of the militias have escalated.” These organizations are classified by the United States on terrorist lists to unprecedented levels.
He added, “In fact, the Iraqi Minister of Higher Education, Naim al-Aboudi, is a member of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, and the head of the prime minister’s press office, Rabih Nader, has long been associated with both Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Kata’ib Hezbollah. The association of these officials with groups classified on terrorist lists will constitute a source of embarrassment for Iraq and impede its return as a normal country.
The analysis also emphasized that “Iraq should work systematically to dismantle armed groups that have taken root within its borders, ensuring that they cannot threaten national or regional security.
In the long term, this initiative will be implemented alongside Iraq’s efforts and commitment to support democratic mechanisms.” in the political process, and the transfer of power peacefully without resorting to violence, which has become familiar during the past few decades in Iraq.
The analysis considered that “Iraq’s success in controlling the status of those militias and combating those groups classified on terrorist lists would help it gain the confidence of the international community and would distance it from possible violations of Chapter VII. This may also lead to the termination of the work of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI).” “.
Iraq’s fulfillment of its obligations under Chapter VI
The analysis issued by the “Washington Institute” dealt with the issue of Iraq’s commitment to Chapter Six, and said: There is a need to resolve Iraq’s disputes with Kuwait peacefully in three files, which are the file of the missing Kuwaitis, the file of the missing Kuwaiti archive, and the file of border disputes.
With regard to the file of the missing, a joint committee could be formed between the two countries under the auspices of the United Nations to discuss and resolve this file, in addition to making more efforts to determine the fate of the missing Kuwaitis since 1990.
And he warned that the two parties must also coordinate efforts to recover the Kuwaiti archive, which was kept in the Iraqi intelligence headquarters, which was bombed and looted in 2003.
The thorny file, which is the file of demarcating the maritime borders, remains beyond the point of reference 162, so Iraq and Kuwait can refer to the UN committee.
And its documents, which drew the borders between Iraq and Iran in 1993, or resorting to an international technical committee to demarcate the water borders between the two parties, or the two parties may resort to the International Court of Justice, if all these efforts fail.
Improving relations with the United States through the strategic framework agreement
The analysis pointed out that Iraq can also gain more international credibility through its commitment to the strategic framework agreement with the United States, which could ensure that Iraq remains a strategic ally of the United States in any regional conflict.
Moreover, reforming and stabilizing the Iraqi National Security Apparatus in line with the objectives of the Strategic Framework Agreement will contribute to the development of the country’s infrastructure in cooperation and coordination with US agencies and international organizations.
The analysis stressed that there is a need to restructure the Iraqi national security system to liberate Iraq from international restrictions of a defensive and security nature, especially with regard to four basic files: regional and international defense and intelligence cooperation, combating terrorism and corruption, and achieving security and stability in Iraq through a commitment to support The democratic political process, and the merging of armed entities with sovereign ministries.
There is also a need to activate the National Security Council to supervise all these files and support transparency and confidence in the banking and financial sector, which is a sticking point in relations between Iraq and the United States.
In addition, Al-Sudani’s avoidance of dealing with China or other countries, in a manner that violates Iraq’s obligations under the terms of this agreement, would contribute to building trust between Al-Sudani and the United States.
The internal situation in Iraq and the possibility of success for the Sudanese
The analysis highlighted the internal situation in Iraq, and stressed that “the Sudanese government must also work to restore voter confidence in the political process by preventing the use of coercion and force in the electoral process, and the involvement of the international community to supervise the integrity of the elections is a good way to build citizens’ confidence in the electoral process.”
And gaining international recognition and trust.Finally, dealing with internal issues related to the displaced and the rights of minorities and women will contribute greatly to building Iraq’s reputation as a reliable and stable country.
The analysis considered “these steps” as “the road map for the return of Iraq as a normal country for the international community. If the “Sudanese” succeeds in implementing it by dealing with it as one package of “indivisible” measures and policies, then it will make Iraq a quantum leap in its contemporary history, and will accelerate However, Iraq’s failure to implement these commitments and steps will open the door to chaos, conflicts and division. LINK
The relationship of the exchange rate with the power of the economy , 22 AUGUST
Economical 2023/08/21
Yasser Al-Mutwali
believes that the general public, who are not specialists in economics and finance, believe that the criterion for the strength of a country's economy is the exchange rate of its currency against the dollar, or any other currency or means.
While most economists in the world unanimously agree that this theory is not valid, we are often faced with a question;
Does the value of the currency reflect the strength of the economy of that country?
What concerns me as a specialist in economic affairs is to show the reality of the strength of the Iraqi economy and that the fluctuation of exchange rates does not mean the reality of the country's economy , as financial and economic experts agree that the exchange rate for any currency is an accounting number agreed upon between global central banks and does not reflect the strength of the country's economy.
To analyze the facts of this theory, let's take a comparison between the Saudi currency and the Jordanian currency, to verify the correctness of the theory from its error.
With regard to the Saudi riyal, for example, (one dollar equals 3.75 riyals), 100 dollars equals 375 riyals), and as for the Jordanian currency (one dollar equals 70 piasters, every 100 dollars equals 70 Jordanian dinars.
The question is: Does this mean that the Jordanian economy is stronger than The Saudi economy?
Of course not, because the volume of Jordan's GDP is 50 billion dollars, while the volume of the Saudi GDP is nearly a trillion dollars.
From that we conclude that the exchange rate does not reflect the strength and durability of the economy.
Therefore, fixed exchange rates are a purely administrative government decision, not It is related to the strength of the economy, and
if we follow international experiences in dealing with the size of their currencies, Argentina, Turkey and Italy have worked to delete six zeros from their currencies, which is a treatment to regulate currency circulation and reduce its volumes in dealing, and this proves that the exchange rate is an accounting number, nothing more, and a government decision.
There are trends in some countries that work to liberate the value of their currencies by floating them because the exchange rate of the dollar is floating and liberalized, and here the estimates of governments remain with such a decision.
Finance and economic experts attribute the reason for the floating to the inability to fix the exchange rate indefinitely, and this is related to the extent of economic and political stability.
The closest example of this is the Lebanese currency, in which the exchange rate has remained constant for decades, every 100 dollars equals 1,500 pounds, but it was soon exposed to chaos and instability until the exchange rate collapsed, unfortunately, which is what is happening to it now.
In conclusion, the Iraqi economy is strong and solid, but the fluctuation of the exchange rate is caused by the political and economic instability in the country.
https://alsabaah.iq/82794-.html
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An expert proposes solutions to limit the rise in the dollar in the parallel market
Economical 2023/08/19
Baghdad: Haider Fleeh Al-Rubaie,
the economist, Munaf Al-Sayegh, proposed a set of solutions to control the parallel exchange rate and undermine the dollar, pointing out that
the presence of two different exchange rates could confuse the local market and lead to a kind of imbalance in economic performance, while
he praised the targeted measures In order to limit the rise of the green currency in the parallel market,
he called for "liberalizing the exchange rate" in accordance with the levels of supply and demand and foreign trade activity, as well as working to change the pattern of the balance of payments and the trade balance.
According to specialists in economic affairs, the Central Bank succeeded in controlling the exchange rate of the parallel dollar, and put an end to the booms that that currency witnessed in previous times, indicating that
the packages of decisions issued by the monetary authority led to strengthening confidence in the national currency, stressing at the same time,
The fluctuation of the exchange rate is no longer an influencing factor in the prices of goods and materials that are now imported at the official price of the Central Bank. Al-Sayegh told "Al-Sabah":
"The presence of two different exchange rates leads to a negative impact on economic performance,
especially if it is linked to the pattern of consumption activity and thus will undermine government efforts aimed at enhancing its ability to provide quality services," stressing the
need to "establish development paths that work on Diversifying economic activity in line with the urgent requirements of society, such as continuous energy, efficient education, health institutions, as well as the provision of high-quality services, indicating that
these steps are sufficient to achieve an active and flexible economy capable of constantly diversifying while creating sustainable development opportunities and diverse and renewable job opportunities within the requirements of economic performance and its obligations. local and international.”
In order to find remedies for the economic effects of the existence of two different exchange rates for the local currency, the jeweler believes that the exchange rate must be liberalized in a flexible manner, according to the levels of supply and demand, as well as the levels of commercial activity of foreign trade, in addition to the need to work to change the pattern of the balance of payments and the trade balance in a way that leads to its transformation Gradually from negative to positive.
Al-Sayegh also stressed the importance of changing the spending pattern in the budget towards the productive investment that leads to serious development paths, taking into account the change in foreign trade patterns from consumer goods to productive goods linked to a specific economic activity, as well as the trend towards making a fundamental change in the pattern of performance and activity. Finance for public and private banks, enhancing the efficiency of government programs aimed at pushing development projects that support economic activity in general, and expanding small and medium entrepreneurial projects among young people.
https://alsabaah.iq/82642-.html
"IRAQ BOOTS ON THE GROUND REPORT" BY FIREFLY, 22 AUGUST
[Iraq boots-on-the-ground report]
FIREFLY: Television says we have done a good job on getting away from the dollar but it still faces an up hill struggle. I'm not the smartest man in the world but why don't the CBI give us a rate and a value?
Then the people will flock to the dinar and be no black market dollar because Sudani says the dinar will be higher than the dollar. Why they not just do that. It's simple in our eyes.
FRANK: What you're asking for is what you're going to get...if they give this rate to you now...the monetary reform will fail. If the monetary reform fails you ain't gonna see Jack son. Nothing...
I don't blame you for venting right now. I know it's simple in your eyes.
"RV UPDATE" BY MILITIAMAN, 22 AUGUST
I think as far as everything being in place where Iraq is concerned with their re-instatement timeframe…I think the writing is on the wall that they are going to go into the international financial system...
And we also expect to see the new small category notes (lower denominations) released in Iraq…and I am hoping this will happen in the next short period of time.
Article: "Iraq..The total looted funds are estimated at $450 billion" Quote: "The Iraqi government is working to strengthen cooperation with international organizations concerned with combating corruption, such as the United Nations, the World Bank, the International Police (Interpol)..."
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Frank26 [Bank story] This time we didn't go down, we just called [the bank]... We said we want to see if we can exchange some cu...
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Walkingstick All these meetings that the CBI had with all these agencies that were helping them with their monetary reform are done. Al...