The expected path of the Iraqi economy, 30 SEPT

 Yasser Metwally

The expectations of economists and those interested in economic affairs, including me, are based on the indicators that appear on the ground.

In order to build our expectations about the path of the Iraqi economy, we must read and analyze the indicators to complete the picture of the future of the Iraqi economy.

The broad and long-term package of decisions and measures that the government has taken and is still taking in the context of the path of economic reform attempts are the indicators that we rely on in reading and forecasting the future.

The size of the accumulated distortions in the structure of the Iraqi economy requires a huge amount of measures to correct the course, and this is what Al-Sudani’s government has adopted during its short life, and certainly the results need some time for the citizen to see them.

Perhaps this package of decisions and procedures contains many advantages, but it is not without disadvantages, based on the principle that no work can be 100% complete, as it may contain some errors, and this is clearly evident in implementation.

How can we weigh the advantages over the disadvantages? Achieving this principle depends on the quality and volume of follow-up and sustainable monitoring of implementation processes.

In the midst of this amount of measures, which are absolutely required due to our delay in correcting the course of the economy, some mistakes will appear and some will address them without focusing on the positives and the results achieved, and this is a strange culture among some short-sighted people.

According to this perspective, the expected path of the Iraqi economy bodes well and is a relief, if these measures and decisions are implemented well. It is noted that the government is serious about achieving the goals set out in its program.

Perhaps the optimism indicator for our expectations lies in the unity of objectives for most corrective decisions and measures and their interconnectedness.

To give an example of this trend, the decisions to reform the banking sector, in parallel with supporting the Iraqi private sector and involving it in implementing some important projects, while considering correcting the tax policy, draw before you a picture of the encouraging path to achieve development based on the unity and interconnectedness of the sectors concerned with achieving it through a package of decisions and procedures.

If we add to it, in the other corner, the activation of the services sector, especially in attempts to resolve congestion and provide the time required for the speed of work and achievement, then the interconnection between the path of the sectors at a parallel pace establishes a correct and clear path confirmed by the percentage of achievement in the investment budget that is being achieved for the first time in two decades, in which the percentages of achievement of the planned investment projects match the implemented investment projects.

We do not forget that such a great achievement may not be without obstacles and requires sufficient time to achieve the goal of the decisions and procedures.

The most important indicator, in my opinion, is that despite all the attempts to put obstacles in the way of economic development, intentionally or unintentionally, the government is moving forward with its program, leaving all attempts at obstruction in its wake, and this is one of the secrets of success and the key to hope. 

As an observer of economic affairs, I sense citizens’ satisfaction and comfort, whether in public meetings and private conversations or in their comments on social media platforms regarding new trends and their sense of the reality and importance of ongoing measures. 

We hope for the best, God willing  link

EXCERPTS: "THE CBI HAS DECIDED TO DO IT THIS FALL" FROM MNT GOAT , 30 SEPT

EXCERPTS FROM MNT GOAT

Let’s start with an interesting article titled “IRAQ PLANS CURRENCY REDENOMINATION AMID ECONOMIC CHALLENGES“. My goal today is to show you that this is just not another article about the Project to Delete the Zeros but much, much more. I also want to show you that I believe this project is going to move forward this fall, and I am told not until after the US election. 

In this article they state, and I quote – “The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has announced that discussions regarding the project to remove zeros from the Iraqi dinar are ongoing,” Oh…. 

but we already knew that, didn’t we? But here is the important part. It is the timing of all these articles yes, there were many articles on this topic this period of news.

 It is September and if you recall my CBI contact told us the committee was planning to begin the roll out of the currency swap out in November. 

Then the article went on to say and I quote – “To address these issues, it has amended some monetary policies in line with the international situation, aiming to increase confidence in the Iraqi dinar and prevent a significant decline in its value.” Is this not one of the main reasons for the Project to Delete the Zeros? 

Okay, so here are the real goodies in this article. I quote again – “Earlier this year, the Iraqi federal government decided to postpone a plan to remove three zeros from the nominal value of its currency notes, citing that the current economic climate was not suitable.” 

Earlier this year?

 Is it suitable now? Is this what they are telling us? Did you read it? All I can now say is “I told you so”. 

Yes, just as I was telling you that they planned to do it in June but for reasons they postponed the process. The US Treasury decided to stop it and we know the rest about the banks and the corruption that we read.

 Now the CBI has decided to do it this fall. This is why they occupy an entire floor in the CBI. The reasons are really two-fold:

 1. One is to help reform their banking system to allow them to do it and 

2. the other is to be onboard to assist in the actual swap out. You will not see the US Treasury leave the CBI until this is done and the Project to Delete the Zeros (swap out) is completed. 

Another piece of the puzzle also surfaced in this article and I quote -“Last year, the central bank indicated plans to redenominate the Iraqi dinar to simplify financial transactions in an economy that remains heavily centralized and oil-dominated, where deals are often conducted in cash.“

So, what the CBI is saying is that they reminded us that last year they indicated plans to do it and this year they are going forward with it. This is what I get out of this article. You can go read it in the Articles Section of today’s Newsletter.

 What do you think? But I also have to add what my CBI contact told us and so there is also another verification too of this article that what I think most likely is the correct thinking. You see, I don’t go by rumors, bullshit bank memos or someone being put on alert in an exchange center… bla, bla, bla …. as all these so-called intel gurus will tell you. I go by FACTS and only the FACTS. Get it?

" I BELIEVE THIS PROJECT IS GOING TO MOVE FORWARD THIS FALL" BY MNT GOAT...

"RAFIDAIN IS ONE OF THE BANKS THAT WILL PARTICIPATE" BY FRANK26, 30 SEPT

 KTFA

FRANK26:"RAFIDAIN IS ONE OF THE BANKS THAT WILL PARTICIPATE"..F26

Rafidain: Continuing to update data and information to ensure safety from money laundering suspicions

 

9/27/2024

 

Baghdad - WAA

Rafidain Bank announced, today, Friday, the continuation of updating data and information to ensure safety from suspicions of money laundering.

The bank's media office stated in a statement received by the Iraqi News Agency (INA), that "in implementation of government directives and instructions of the Central Bank of Iraq / Anti-Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Office, the Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Reporting Department at Rafidain Bank conducted field visits to the bank's branches in Baghdad and the governorates," noting that "the risks of money laundering and terrorist financing and the mechanisms to combat them and report suspicious transactions and monitor them using available means and methods."

He added that "the visits concluded with auditing the work of liaison employees and following up on updating the (KYC) form, which ensures the safety of customers' funds and accounts from any suspicions of money laundering," noting that "due diligence measures are taken for companies and customers according to the Anti-Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Law."

LINK

JP MORGAN BANK WILL EXCHANGE YOUR IRAQI DINARS BY FRANK26, 30 SEPT

  Frank26 

 I believe [local banks] will send the currency to headquarters...JP Morgan is going to do everything for  you.  

The bank you have an account with is the place where you're going to put your money in. 

 JP Morgan will exchange your dinar for your American dollars and then electronically they will credit your account at Chase. 

 But JP Morgan will be, what I call, your team...It doesn't have to be your team, you can create your own team.  

These financial advisers will offer you a lawyer that  represents them, not you...You want to be prudent...Do not go with just one opinion.  Get more than one opinion...

DINARLAND HIGHLIGHTS!!! @DINARREVALUATION

American views split on US military withdrawal from Iraq: Reduce operations or fully withdraw?, 30 SEPT

 Shafaq News/ American interpretations of the decision by Baghdad and Washington to end the International Coalition's mission and withdraw forces from Iraq vary. Some see it as “a natural step” after ISIS's defeat, while others call for a “full US military exit,” a decision left to the next president.

On Friday, the US and Iraq reached an agreement to formally conclude the US-led military coalition's anti-ISIS mission in Iraq by 2025. While certain US troops will leave long-held bases, officials have not clarified how many of the 2,500 US forces stationed in Iraq will remain. Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh confirmed that the US military presence would be adjusted but did not provide specific numbers.

This agreement comes at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East. Regional conflicts involving Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza raise concerns about a potential broader war. US military installations in Iraq have frequently been targeted by Iran-backed forces, particularly following the Israel-Hamas war last year.

The two-phase plan outlined in the agreement states that by September 2025, the coalition’s mission will end, and US forces will vacate bases such as Ain al-Asad and Baghdad International Airport. They will relocate to Hareer base in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region. The second phase allows for a limited US presence to continue supporting counter-ISIS efforts in Syria until 2026, though the exact number of troops that will remain in Iraq remains unclear.

While Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has voiced confidence in his nation’s forces to manage the remnants of ISIS, facing internal pressure from pro-Iran factions. US officials, however, have warned that the threat of ISIS persists, particularly in Syria, where the group has increased its activities.

According to The Media Line, “this phased withdrawal is part of a broader adjustment of US military operations in the region.” The American news agency reports that the withdrawal will reduce American military operations, with certain bases being vacated, yet leave a residual force to counter potential ISIS resurgence.

Time Magazine offered a different perspective, framing the deal as "long overdue" and suggesting that the US should fully withdraw from Iraq. The magazine emphasized that while Washington will not be pulling all its troops, the agreement represents the start of a "conditions-based transition" that risks prolonging US involvement. Critics of this gradual approach argue that the US has already accomplished its counter-ISIS goals in Iraq. As Time Magazine pointed out, “the territorial caliphate has been destroyed, and local forces are now more capable of managing security operations.”

Concerns remain, however, about whether a complete US departure could embolden ISIS and Iran. US lawmakers, such as House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, have expressed alarm that a full withdrawal would benefit Iran and ISIS. Rogers warned that "withdrawing from Iraq in this way would embolden Iran and ISIS," a sentiment echoed by retired Gen. Joseph Votel, who claimed that ISIS would "inevitably" resurge without a U.S. military presence.

Time Magazine countered these claims by noting that local forces, including the Iraqi army and Kurdish peshmerga, have significantly improved their capabilities since the fight against ISIS began in 2014. Moreover, they argue that "the US intelligence community would remain “laser-focused " and could take action against ISIS without a ground presence, citing past examples of successful operations, such as the 2022 drone strike that killed Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan.

The phased withdrawal will likely shape the future of US-Iraq relations. Time Magazine concluded that “the Biden administration has set the stage for a more normal, business-like relationship with Iraq,” but the ultimate decision on the US military's future role in the country may rest with the next president.

Disclaimer: The views presented by the author do not necessarily reflect the official standpoint of Shafaq News Agency.