The expected path of the Iraqi economy, 30 SEPT

 Yasser Metwally

The expectations of economists and those interested in economic affairs, including me, are based on the indicators that appear on the ground.

In order to build our expectations about the path of the Iraqi economy, we must read and analyze the indicators to complete the picture of the future of the Iraqi economy.

The broad and long-term package of decisions and measures that the government has taken and is still taking in the context of the path of economic reform attempts are the indicators that we rely on in reading and forecasting the future.

The size of the accumulated distortions in the structure of the Iraqi economy requires a huge amount of measures to correct the course, and this is what Al-Sudani’s government has adopted during its short life, and certainly the results need some time for the citizen to see them.

Perhaps this package of decisions and procedures contains many advantages, but it is not without disadvantages, based on the principle that no work can be 100% complete, as it may contain some errors, and this is clearly evident in implementation.

How can we weigh the advantages over the disadvantages? Achieving this principle depends on the quality and volume of follow-up and sustainable monitoring of implementation processes.

In the midst of this amount of measures, which are absolutely required due to our delay in correcting the course of the economy, some mistakes will appear and some will address them without focusing on the positives and the results achieved, and this is a strange culture among some short-sighted people.

According to this perspective, the expected path of the Iraqi economy bodes well and is a relief, if these measures and decisions are implemented well. It is noted that the government is serious about achieving the goals set out in its program.

Perhaps the optimism indicator for our expectations lies in the unity of objectives for most corrective decisions and measures and their interconnectedness.

To give an example of this trend, the decisions to reform the banking sector, in parallel with supporting the Iraqi private sector and involving it in implementing some important projects, while considering correcting the tax policy, draw before you a picture of the encouraging path to achieve development based on the unity and interconnectedness of the sectors concerned with achieving it through a package of decisions and procedures.

If we add to it, in the other corner, the activation of the services sector, especially in attempts to resolve congestion and provide the time required for the speed of work and achievement, then the interconnection between the path of the sectors at a parallel pace establishes a correct and clear path confirmed by the percentage of achievement in the investment budget that is being achieved for the first time in two decades, in which the percentages of achievement of the planned investment projects match the implemented investment projects.

We do not forget that such a great achievement may not be without obstacles and requires sufficient time to achieve the goal of the decisions and procedures.

The most important indicator, in my opinion, is that despite all the attempts to put obstacles in the way of economic development, intentionally or unintentionally, the government is moving forward with its program, leaving all attempts at obstruction in its wake, and this is one of the secrets of success and the key to hope. 

As an observer of economic affairs, I sense citizens’ satisfaction and comfort, whether in public meetings and private conversations or in their comments on social media platforms regarding new trends and their sense of the reality and importance of ongoing measures. 

We hope for the best, God willing  link