Saturday, August 17, 2024
Evening News with MarkZ. 08/16/2024
Warnings of National Currency Collapse and Position Rotation in 2024 , 17 AUGUST
Warnings of National Currency Collapse and Position Rotation in 2024
As of August 17, 2024, warnings of a potential collapse of the national currency and discussions surrounding the rotation of positions have been prominent in economic circles. These warnings are rooted in the financial instability that has characterized the global economy, particularly in the United States, where banking crises have been a recurrent concern.
Understanding the BTFP and Its Impact
The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) was a critical response by the Federal Reserve to the failures of regional banks in 2023. These banks, including Signature, Silvergate, and Silicon Valley, were brought down by mass withdrawals due to customer concerns and the need to cover losses. The BTFP helped stabilize the situation by allowing banks to borrow funds using their bonds as collateral, thus preventing further bank runs and providing a temporary solution to the liquidity crisis.
Weaknesses of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar, while a global reserve currency, is not immune to weaknesses that could trigger a collapse. The fundamental weakness lies in its value being based solely on government fiat, a situation shared by other major national currencies. This lack of intrinsic value and the reliance on the government's promise of its worth can lead to instability if confidence in the government's fiscal policies erodes.
Rising Debt and Economic Concerns
The debt levels of the United States in 2024 have also been a cause for alarm, with analysts warning of a brewing crisis. The accumulation of debt has the potential to undermine the economy's stability, especially if interest rates rise, increasing the cost of servicing the debt.
Market Predictions and Rate Cuts
Predictions for the stock market in 2024 indicate a cautious optimism, with expectations of rate cuts and a potentially mild economic downturn. However, these predictions are contingent on several factors, including the effectiveness of monetary policy and the resilience of the global economy.
Financial Stability and Geopolitical Risks
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted risks to global financial stability, emphasizing that vulnerabilities in the banking system could turn into serious issues if the hoped-for soft landing of the global economy does not occur. Geopolitical tensions also pose significant challenges, with the potential for financial fragmentation and implications for the stability of financial markets.
The Rise of Nontraditional Reserve Currencies
In a striking development, the IMF has noted a decline in the U.S. dollar's share of allocated foreign reserves, which has not been offset by increases in the shares of other major currencies. Instead, nontraditional reserve currencies such as the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Chinese renminbi, South Korean won, Singaporean dollar, and Nordic currencies have seen a rise in their shares. This shift can be attributed in part to new digital financial technologies and the increasing popularity of cryptocurrencies.
Conclusion
The warnings of a national currency collapse and the rotation of positions in 2024 reflect the complex interplay of economic factors, including debt levels, banking stability, and geopolitical risks. The potential for a U.S. dollar collapse, while not imminent, is a concern that has gained traction due to the weakening of traditional reserve currency roles and the rise of alternatives. These developments underscore the need for careful economic planning and policy adjustments to navigate the challenges ahead.
SOURCE:
https://theconversation.com/why-economists-are-warning-of-another-us-banking-crisis-224092
Weekend News with MarkZ. 08/17/2024
Updates on the Hydrocarbon (HCL) Oil Law in Iraq as of August 17, 2024 BY DINAR REVALUATION, 17 AUGUST
Updates on the Hydrocarbon (HCL) Oil Law in Iraq as of August 17, 2024
The Hydrocarbon Law, also known as the Iraq Oil Law, is a critical piece of legislation in Iraq that has undergone significant developments since its inception in 2007. As of 2024, the law continues to evolve, shaping the country's oil industry and impacting political dynamics.
Overview of the Hydrocarbon Law
The Iraq Hydrocarbon Law, initially submitted to the Iraqi Council of Representatives in 2007, aimed to establish a regulatory framework for Iraq's oil fields. Its provisions sparked controversy and debate among Iraqi parliamentarians, politicians, and oil experts, who expressed concerns over the potential division of the country and the role of foreign companies in the oil sector.
Updates as of 2024
Legal Rulings and Revisions
A series of legal rulings by Iraq's Federal Supreme Court in February 2024 have emphasized that the ongoing revisions to the Hydrocarbon Law will significantly impact Iraqi Kurdistan's autonomy in the oil sector. The rulings stipulate that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) must transfer all oil and non-oil revenues to Baghdad, effectively returning financial control of Iraqi Kurdistan to the central government.
Budget Law Impact
The new Iraqi budget law, passed in June 2024, further consolidates Baghdad's authority over the Kurdistan region's oil sector. The law requires the KRG to hand over 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of its crude production to the Federal Government of Iraq's (FGI) State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) in exchange for federal funding. This arrangement has implications for the region's oil production and export capabilities.
Future of the Law
The future of the Hydrocarbon Law remains uncertain, with ongoing debates and negotiations among Iraqi political factions. Its successful passage and implementation are crucial for Iraq's social, economic, and political stability. Failure to pass the law could have negative repercussions for the country.
Conclusion
The Hydrocarbon Law in Iraq is a dynamic and pivotal issue that continues to face challenges and revisions as of 2024. Its impact on the country's oil industry, particularly in relation to the Kurdistan region, underscores the law's significance in shaping Iraq's future.
SOURCES:
Understanding the Global Currency Reset in 2024 by DINAR REVALUATION, 17 AUGUST
Understanding the Global Currency Reset in 2024
Talks of alobal currency reset have sparked considerable interest and speculation, particularly in the context of the post-pandemic economic landscape. The idea of a global currency reset suggests a significant shift in the world's financial system, potentially revaluing currencies based on new criteria.
Economic Outlook and Resilience
As of August 17, 2024, the world economy is forecast to grow steadily, albeit slowly, at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025. This resilience, despite central bank interest rate hikes, is attributed to changes in mortgage and housing markets that have moderated the impact of policy rate hikes. However, the forecast for global growth five years from now—at 3.1%—is at its lowest in decades.
The Great Reset: A Final Act?
Some experts suggest that the global economy is in the final act of a great reset, following a decade characterized by disinflation, lower growth, and excessive monetary stimulus. While some markets have reacted quickly to the new economic landscape, others, such as the economy, corporate and consumer behavior, and real estate, adjust more slowly.
Global Currency Reset: Theories and Possibilities
The concept of a global currency reset has been discussed by economists, conspiracy theorists, and financial experts alike. At its core, a global currency reset suggests a shift in the world's global currency reserve, potentially resetting the value of currencies globally. This reset could be based on criteria like a country's gold reserves, GDP, or a mix of economic indicators.
Historically, while there have been no global currency resets in the modern era, there have been significant shifts in the global financial system, such as the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944.
Realities, Myths, and Impact
The credibility of the global currency reset varies, with some viewing it as a real possibility and others dismissing it as a conspiracy theory. The theory suggests that the US dollar could lose its position as the world's reserve currency due to the United States' over-leverage and decreasing competitiveness compared to emerging economies rich in resources.
The Role of International Organizations
The World Economic Forum (WEF) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been central in discussions regarding economic recovery and the potential for a global currency reset. The Great Reset Initiative, launched by the WEF in June 2020, aims to facilitate rebuilding from the global COVID-19 crisis in a way that prioritizes sustainable development.
Conclusion
While the concept of a global currency reset in 2024 captures the imagination, its actual implementation remains speculative. Economic forecasts and expert opinions suggest ongoing global economic resilience, albeit with significant challenges and potential for structural changes. The impact of such a reset on savings, investments, and the global economy would be profound, making it a topic of keen interest and ongoing debate.
SOURCES:
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/07/16/tr071624-july-2024-weo-update
https://www.purposeinvest.com/thoughtful/2024-outlook-the-great-reset-final-act
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