“The US Treasury requests Iraqi cooperation to limit funding for armed factions” This is all part of what’s going on as Iraq cleans up. And yesterday - again in Iraq - they started openly talking about the exchange rate and the value of the dinar.
Comment: I hear more and more groups are under NDA’s. MarkZ: We are hearing of more and more… My banking contacts still feel If we have to sign one - it will be about the amount we get...we are definitely close.
“Burhan Nassir Mohammed Al Namral sworn in as Iraq’s new Parliament speaker” This one is important. It has been rumored in some circles for a few months that he was a stickler for moving forward with the white papers and rate change. I’m taking this as a good sign.
The Parliamentary Finance Committee on Wednesday called for the sale of Iraqi oil in currencies other than the US dollar to face sanctions imposed by the US Treasury Department against Iraqi banks.
A statement to the Parliamentary Finance Committee, the network received a 964 copy of which:
The US Treasury Department is still invoking money laundering to impose its sanctions against Iraqi banks, which requires a national position that puts an end to these arbitrary decisions.
Imposing sanctions on Iraqi banks would undermine and hinder the steps taken by the central bank to adapt the stability of the dollar exchange rate and reduce the selling gap between the official and parallel price.
While we reject these practices, because of their repercussions and consequences for the sustenance of our citizens, we renew our call to the government and the Central Bank of Iraq to take quick measures, to get rid of the dominance of the dollar, by diversifying our foreign currency reserve.
We also propose to oblige the Ministry of Oil to sell Iraqi oil in other foreign currencies.
AN INTERNATIONAL WARNING ABOUT THE ESCALATION OF THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT: IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT GAS FLOWS
(There is more than enough energy in all forms to supply the world 1000 times over. This glut for shortages and price gorging is manipulative and very deceptive. It just that who controls the energy and how do they manipulate the prices keeping it from us. I can hardly believe how stupid the EU was in managing our energy supply. There was no reason for the shortages if only we had common sense people running our governments. Who are you going to VOTE for?)
The International Energy Agency expects global demand for natural gas to grow this year (2024), but warned of price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
According to a recent report, high inventory levels, along with improved supply expectations, provide some reassurance to gas markets during 2024, but geopolitical uncertainty represents a major risk.
The report pointed out that the continued Russian invasion of Ukraine, escalating tensions in the Middle East, increasing restrictions on shipping, delays in liquefied natural gas projects, and adverse weather conditions as factors that could cause fluctuations in the markets during 2024.
Despite the increasing geopolitical uncertainty, global gas demand is trending to grow by about 2.5%, or the equivalent of 100 billion cubic metres.
Demand for Natural Gas
Lower gas prices in 2023 and expectations of colder winter weather in 2024 will lead global demand to grow to a total of 4.19 trillion cubic meters this year, compared to 4.089 trillion cubic meters in 2023, according to the quarterly gas market report issued by the International Energy Agency on Friday, January 26. / January 2023.
In 2023, global gas demand rose by just 0.5%, with growth in China, North America, Africa and the Middle East offset by declines elsewhere.
Demand for natural gas in China rebounded during 2023 by 7%, with the return of economic activity, after recovering from the restrictions of the Corona pandemic, so that Beijing regained its position as the largest importer of liquefied natural gas in the world.
In contrast, natural gas consumption in Europe fell by 7%, reaching the lowest level since 1995, with the rapid expansion of renewable energy, increased availability of nuclear power, and rationalization regulations.
The International Energy Agency expects demand in Europe to grow by 3% during 2024, but it will remain about 20% below pre-energy crisis levels in 2021.
Global natural gas production rose to 4.116 trillion cubic meters in 2023, compared to 4.105 trillion cubic meters the previous year, according to the International Energy Agency.
On the supply side, gas availability remained relatively limited during 2023, as the increase in global production of liquefied natural gas was less than expected, and production growth was not sufficient to compensate for the continued decline in pipelined Russian gas supplies to Europe.
Moreover, supply growth has been highly geographically concentrated, with the United States becoming the largest exporter of LNG globally, accounting for 80% of additional LNG supply in 2023.
US exports of liquefied natural gas. The International Energy Agency expects liquefied gas supplies to grow by 3.5% this year, much lower than the growth rate of 8% between 2016 and 2020, noting that the delay in new liquefaction stations and problems surrounding the availability of feed gas – delivered gas For liquefaction plants – in existing projects, this may lead to postponement of supply growth until 2025.
For this reason, it is possible that the growth in demand for gas and the tight supply could contribute significantly to price fluctuations throughout the year, according to the report.
The International Energy Agency warned that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could significantly affect liquefied natural gas flows, especially since Qatar represents a fifth of global liquefied gas supplies.
Qatar had announced that its tankers would temporarily stop transiting through the Suez Canal, noting that the crisis in the Red Sea amid the Houthi attacks may affect the scheduling of some shipments, but it stressed its commitment to its customers.
THE CENTRAL BANK OF IRAQ DECIDES TO RESTORE THE MECHANISM FOR FINANCING IRAQ’S FOREIGN TRADE, STARTING NEXT MARCH
The Central Bank of Iraq decided to restore the mechanism for financing Iraq’s foreign trade, starting next March.
The Central Bank said in a letter addressed to the banks, which Al-Iqtisad News reviewed, that for the purpose of organizing financing operations for requests to enhance external balances, it was decided to implement the new requirements and mechanisms starting from March 1, 2024.
He added that banks wishing to enhance their balance with correspondent banks in all currencies should appoint an external auditor for the purposes of reviewing transfers in advance of the process of sending transfers. Banks wishing to enhance the balance must provide us with information about the names of the companies they wish to contract with within a maximum period of February 29, 2024.
He stressed that requests to strengthen the dollar are for banks that hold correspondent accounts with an American bank exclusively, at a price of 1310.
He stated that strengthening other currencies other than the dollar will accept applications at the banks of the currency country, provided that the classification of these banks is either the same as the country’s classification or only one rank lower than it, in a way that is consistent with Iraq’s import requirements from those countries.
(There is more to this policy and you can go to the link and read it but essentially this is the new policy come March.)
OPERATING THE FIRST PHASE OF THE INTEGRATED ARAB TRADE LINE BETWEEN EGYPT, JORDAN AND IRAQ
(It has begun, Iraq is now taking the lead in becoming a clearing-house for logistics between middle eastern countries. So far only two but more are added as time is passing and ease of trade is realized. Don’t forget there is also a rail project underway which will be online soon too.)
The Egyptian Ministry of Transport has operated the first phase of the Arab Integrated Multimodal Logistics Trade Line between Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, to serve the transport of goods in the Gulf countries to the ports of European and American countries.
The goods pass through the link between the ports of Aqaba and Nuweiba on the Gulf of Aqaba, and from there by land – currently – through Sinai through the Nuweiba Tunnel Road, and from there to the ports of Al-Arish, East Port Said, Damietta and Alexandria Al-Kabeer, which is the route that represents the land part of the Taba Al-Arish logistical corridor, in order to be exploited for services. Direct sea ports between Egyptian, European and American ports, through the Egyptian Ministry of Transport in cooperation with the Iraqi and Jordanian Ministries of Transport.
The goods are transported via trucks from Iraq and Jordan to the port of Aqaba in Jordan, then the trucks cross by sea inside ships to the port of Nuweiba, then by land through the Nuweiba tunnel road passing through Sinai to reach the ports of East Port Said, Damietta, and Alexandria, then they are shipped on ships to European and American ports.
The Taba-Arish-Bir al-Abd-Al-Fardan railway line, with a length of 500 km, is being constructed to increase the volume of goods intended to be transported from the Gulf, Iraq and Jordan to Europe and America within the second phase of the integrated Arab trade line. Trucks in the ports of Nuweiba and Taba will be replaced by railway trains. This increases the volume of goods via railway lines, which connect with all Egyptian ports .
It was put into operation at the beginning of January 2024, as Egypt amended all the necessary customs legislation to facilitate and increase direct international transit movement through the Egyptian state through the infrastructure of ports, road and railway networks, and the Egyptian Ministry of Transport also joined the “TIR” and “VINA 1968” agreements. Which facilitates the entry of foreign trucks to cross within Egyptian territory in the shortest possible time.
The line is considered the fastest in arrival time, the least expensive, and the easiest in procedures and opportunities. It also contributed to linking Jordan, Iraq, and the Gulf states, through the Nuweiba sea port to the Egyptian ports overlooking the Mediterranean Sea and from there to the European market.
For his part, the Egyptian Minister of Transport, Lieutenant General Kamel Al-Wazir, confirmed, according to the Egyptian Youm Al-Sabea, that the operation of this line came based on coordination between the Egyptian Ministry of Transport and the Jordanian and Iraqi Ministries of Transport through the strategic partnership with the Arab Bridge Navigation Company, and its operation also comes in light of the directives of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. The President of the Republic transformed Egypt into a center for global trade and logistics, and the Ministry of Transport implemented an integrated plan to develop international multimodal transport hubs (land – rail – river – sea) and within the framework of the Taba – Al-Arish logistical corridor, which is currently being implemented within a number of 7 integrated international development logistical corridors.
The issue I still see is in order to peg to a basket of currencies, they would "officially" have to depeg from the USD.While I have yet to see the US relinquish their receivership status over Iraq and the fact that the US is desperate to try to keep the USD propped up, I am unsure the actual mechanism of how they will be allowed to depeg and then repeg. It seems like receivership would need lifted first for that kind of move.
If they are truly heading to a simple 3 decimal space move on their exchange rate and...they are heading to 1.31USD to 1 IQD, they would have to make another move first to 763.4 from 1310...As of now, a simple decimal move of 3 places would mean 1310 IQD to 1 USD would become 1.310 IQD to 1 USD or 76 cents per IQD..
The basket of currencies is what they intend to peg to instead of just pegging to one currency - the USD...This is what the CBI and the GOI has stated...If they are pegged to just one currency, if the value (purchasing power) of that currency drops significantly, so does the value (purchasing power) of the IQD. If they are pegged to a basket a currencies, if one drops the others keep the IQD "propped up". This is extremely important to Iraq as they are predominantly an import country. This is precisely what they stated years ago...Bottom line, the pegging to a basket is to maintain the purchasing power and stability of the currency and not a singular event to increase the IQD purchasing power.
Clare: With the closure...the dollar price decreased
1/20/2024
The main stock exchange in the capital, Baghdad, closed today, Saturday, due to the decline in the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar.
Selling prices in money exchange shops in local markets in Baghdad reached 153,250 Iraqi dinars for 100 dollars, while purchasing prices reached 151,250 dinars for 100 dollars. LINK
Sir_Shawn: IMO- CBI official rate 1310 1 USD ~ 1310 IQD = 0.000763 Drop the three zeros 1USD ~ IQD 0.763 = 1.310 Anyone for a mic drop…
Question is when….
Paulette:IMO......I don't believe .76 USD for one IQD (1.31 IQD/1USD) would be adequate for the Iraqis to want to abandon the more valuable USD......The MOP/MOI study all the way back in 2009 stated 1.14-1.18USD to 1 IQD to start for 3 years prior to reinstating the true value of 3.22USD per 1 IQD
Sir_Shawn: Well in my opinion, you are right, so this brings up the basket of currencies and the float. The Dinar will correct itself probably instantaneous. The question is the second set of books where I believe they were using the 1.31 per Dinar. We know that all those buildings and cities were not built on 1310 Dinars. But still we wait… IMO
Paulette: IMO......the basket of currencies is what they intend to peg to instead of just pegging to one currency - the USD. At least this is what the CBI and the GOI has stated in the past. If they are pegged to just one currency, if the value (purchasing power) of that currency drops significantly, so does the value (purchasing power) of the IQD.
If they are pegged to a basket a currencies, if one drops the others keep the IQD "propped up". This is extremely important to Iraq as they are predominantly an import country. This is precisely what they stated years ago and those articles are probably somewhere within the pages of the Final Article thread. Bottom line, the pegging to a basket is to maintain the purchasing power and stability of the currency and not a singular event to increase the IQD purchasing power.
The issue I still see is in order to peg to a basket of currencies, they would "officially" have to depeg from the USD. While I have yet to see the US relinquish their receivership status over Iraq and the fact that the US is desperate to try to keep the USD propped up, I am unsure the actual mechanism of how they will be allowed to depeg and then repeg. It seems like receivership would need lifted first for that kind of move.
The buildings and cities were built on the USD value predominantly from oil sales. The number of IQD to the USD value seems irrelevant. Look at Vietnam and all they have accomplished with a currency value of less than a tenth that of the IQD. The big difference is Vietnam expanded their currency supply and Iraq has not. Iraq clearly has full intent to RI their currency and change their currency structure to rid itself of the 3 zeros. These articles are definitely contained in the FA thread.
If they are truly heading to a simple 3 decimal space move on their exchange rate and as you said they are heading to 1.31USD to 1 IQD, they would have to make another move first to 763.4 from 1310. Frank has said they had planned on one more move. As of now, a simple decimal move of 3 places would mean 1310 IQD to 1 USD would become 1.310 IQD to 1 USD or 76 cents per IQD
