Clare: With the closure...the dollar price decreased
1/20/2024
The main stock exchange in the capital, Baghdad, closed today, Saturday, due to the decline in the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar.
Selling prices in money exchange shops in local markets in Baghdad reached 153,250 Iraqi dinars for 100 dollars, while purchasing prices reached 151,250 dinars for 100 dollars. LINK
Sir_Shawn: IMO- CBI official rate 1310
1 USD ~ 1310 IQD = 0.000763
Drop the three zeros
1USD ~ IQD 0.763 = 1.310
Anyone for a mic drop…
Question is when….
Paulette: IMO......I don't believe .76 USD for one IQD (1.31 IQD/1USD) would be adequate for the Iraqis to want to abandon the more valuable USD......The MOP/MOI study all the way back in 2009 stated 1.14-1.18USD to 1 IQD to start for 3 years prior to reinstating the true value of 3.22USD per 1 IQD
Sir_Shawn: Well in my opinion, you are right, so this brings up the basket of currencies and the float. The Dinar will correct itself probably instantaneous. The question is the second set of books where I believe they were using the 1.31 per Dinar. We know that all those buildings and cities were not built on 1310 Dinars. But still we wait… IMO
Paulette: IMO......the basket of currencies is what they intend to peg to instead of just pegging to one currency - the USD. At least this is what the CBI and the GOI has stated in the past. If they are pegged to just one currency, if the value (purchasing power) of that currency drops significantly, so does the value (purchasing power) of the IQD.
If they are pegged to a basket a currencies, if one drops the others keep the IQD "propped up". This is extremely important to Iraq as they are predominantly an import country. This is precisely what they stated years ago and those articles are probably somewhere within the pages of the Final Article thread. Bottom line, the pegging to a basket is to maintain the purchasing power and stability of the currency and not a singular event to increase the IQD purchasing power.
The issue I still see is in order to peg to a basket of currencies, they would "officially" have to depeg from the USD. While I have yet to see the US relinquish their receivership status over Iraq and the fact that the US is desperate to try to keep the USD propped up, I am unsure the actual mechanism of how they will be allowed to depeg and then repeg. It seems like receivership would need lifted first for that kind of move.
The buildings and cities were built on the USD value predominantly from oil sales. The number of IQD to the USD value seems irrelevant. Look at Vietnam and all they have accomplished with a currency value of less than a tenth that of the IQD. The big difference is Vietnam expanded their currency supply and Iraq has not. Iraq clearly has full intent to RI their currency and change their currency structure to rid itself of the 3 zeros. These articles are definitely contained in the FA thread.
If they are truly heading to a simple 3 decimal space move on their exchange rate and as you said they are heading to 1.31USD to 1 IQD, they would have to make another move first to 763.4 from 1310. Frank has said they had planned on one more move. As of now, a simple decimal move of 3 places would mean 1310 IQD to 1 USD would become 1.310 IQD to 1 USD or 76 cents per IQD
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