Monday, August 26, 2024
Coffee with MarkZ. 08/26/2024
DINAR REVALUATION : Iraq's Economic Outlook for 2024: Stability, Security, and the Dinar's Strength, 26 AUGUST
Iraq's Economic Outlook for 2024: Stability, Security, and the Dinar's Strength
Iraq's economic landscape in 2024 is characterized by a mix of challenges and opportunities. Its economy, heavily dependent on oil, is navigating through a period of global economic uncertainty, which has implications for its fiscal health and overall stability.
Economic Growth and Oil's Role
Growth in 2024 is anticipated to be modest, influenced by OPEC's production cuts and the fluctuation in oil prices. Iraq, as the second-largest producer within OPEC, is adhering to these cuts, impacting its export revenues. The revaluation of the dinar in February 2023 has further complicated the situation by weakening the local currency equivalent of exports.
Non-Oil Sector: A Bright Spot?
Despite challenges in the oil sector, the non-oil GDP growth is expected to be bolstered by investment projects funded by the USD 150 billion budget approved by Parliament in June 2023. Infrastructure projects, such as the reconstruction of Mosul airport, and increased public spending, including a raise in the minimum wage, are anticipated to support private consumption and stimulate economic activity.
Fiscal Situation and Oil Dependence
Iraq's economy remains heavily reliant on oil, with revenues from this sector accounting for a significant portion of government income. This dependence exposes the country to volatility, as seen in the fluctuation of oil prices and its impact on Iraq's fiscal health. However, in 2021, government revenues surged due to higher oil prices, reaching a surplus of 5.3% of GDP.
Challenges Ahead
The IMF has highlighted the need for Iraq to reduce its oil dependence to ensure fiscal sustainability. This will involve controlling the public wage bill and increasing non-oil tax revenues. Moreover, enabling private sector development through labor market reforms and financial sector modernization is crucial for higher economic growth and to absorb the expanding labor force.
Stability and Security Implications
Iraq's political and security situation is inextricably linked to its economic stability. The overreliance on oil revenues has contributed to political and economic strife, with any downturn in oil prices leading to fiscal stress. The health of the economy, in turn, affects social cohesion and the country's security landscape.
Outlook for the Dinar
The strength of the Iraqi dinar is influenced by oil prices, fiscal policies, and global economic conditions. Its revaluation in 2023 has affected the economy, highlighting the interplay between the currency's value and the country's economic stability.
Conclusion
Iraq's path to economic stability in 2024 is contingent on a multitude of factors, both internal and external. The government's efforts to diversify the economy and manage fiscal resources effectively will be key determinants of success. The country's security situation and social cohesion are also crucial, as they directly impact economic performance and investor confidence.
Strong economy strong dinar, 26 AUGUST
Mohammed Saleh Al-Badrani
Any talk about improvement in any field is theoretical talk that will not produce anything unless stability, social cohesion and a stable security situation are achieved. This matter requires attention to details and loose threads.
Civilization needs foundations to be a platform for advancement, and stability is the basis. It is a general word that includes the societal structure, reform of institutions and administration, and the establishment of an ideology that everyone seeks to achieve through which plans are built, sectors are supported, and prosperity is one of its outcomes.
This requires the advancement of education, support for general culture, and aspirations towards movement without obstructive limitations. Other than this, everything we say or will say becomes mere wishes and desires that have no means or institutions to achieve them .
Stability and the crystallization of the character of the state and its institutions will be built accordingly, and it is the same path of progress that expands and opens up the fields of renaissance by forming the nation and then by forming the stable state .
1. Relying on oil without investing it will not improve the economy or increase the strength of the dinar. Rather, it is an invisible deterioration, and everything that is treated with it is like wood dye that is eaten by termites. For this reason, oil and other resources such as customs revenues and taxes must be invested, not by increasing taxes and exhausting the citizen, but by making it flow in a way that makes the citizen comfortable, so that it is in harmony with the state and its plans and is part of its plan, and the state is not considered a feudal lord or a squire who wants to stray from its paths .
2. Taking care of the countryside and returning people to it with plans, projects, industries and factories for agriculture and raising poultry, cows and sheep to produce meat and other things, with managing the land to grow fodder, and establishing fodder factories in strategic areas, and factories for animal products and canning them. As for the citizen’s return without a plan, it will be a matter whose feasibility will weaken unless capital enters from somewhere as capital for those who have money and find a way to operate it. This will be practical and realistic after stability .
3. Stopping government appointments with the absence of projects and the increase in colleges and universities means producing a cadre that is not good at taking care of itself or doing any work in order to live. It is necessary to establish private projects and companies and the state encourages their stability and facilitates their establishment with the establishment of a retirement guarantee similar to the state retirement system, and thus the momentum for work in government jobs is reduced.
This may come through partnerships with companies in industrialized countries to localize major factories and food and mechanical industries such as cars and machinery and support them with oil at cost price, in exchange for social care supervised by the state and looked into by the state so that those who work in these companies, facilities or industries are not harmed if one of the companies decides to abandon work. This means establishing contract models that specify the workforce, job positions and expertise and developing them through continuous education .
Regional environment
4. Establishing interest-based relations with the regional environment, and establishing water agreements in a way that realistically looks at everyone’s interests, and through cooperation in water management, investment, and joint planning as management and facilities so that there is no clear gap between desires and reality, and between proposals that have not entered the logical filters, as climate change is likely and to a large extent, but its results cannot be determined, so confronting it today through projects that do not put the country in a state of death and are capable of supplying economic and human movement is very important .
5. Desalination of Gulf water and engineering its pumping so that it covers and revives every inch of Iraq, and the rapid transformation to modern and economic agriculture will reduce pollution. The marshes will not be relied upon as water bodies, but rather as tourist investment areas such as winter resorts and fish farms, as is suitable for them.
The dinar and the economy need real work and confidence in the currency is confidence in the economy of the countries, which expresses confidence in the management of the country itself.
What we write here is the salt in the perspective of the reality of the situation, so that the effort of the meetings is not wasted and becomes air in the net, as they say. It is certain that there are specialists in the country, but they should not look at the experiences of others and transfer them as templates. Capitalism is not a fragmentation system, but rather a system that built itself for hundreds of years until it settled in the situation we see, and those who live in it will not see it as an option. Likewise, socialist systems do not have direct scientific applications.
We need to benefit from these systems in making a suitable system successful, as China did, which has a strong economy that does not look at the exchange rate of its currency, but is strong in its global dealings
. Perhaps if the countries of the region united to create their own currency and trade, they would gain a position in managing the global economy. All of this requires effort and time, and before that, determination in understanding and preparation and a will to implement link
THE PURPOSE OF QFS BY MR. POOL, 26 AUGUST
The Purpose of QFS, Mr. Pool on Telegram
- The purpose of the QFS is to end c********n, u***y and m**********n within the banking system. “Banks” will no longer need to make huge profits from money transfer transactions.
- The QFS will be completely independent of any existing “centralized” system and all other transport systems will be obsolete.
- QFS is not a cryptocurrency. After REVAL (revaluation), the currency of all nations will become obsolete, collateralizing assets and ensuring a stable value (this process is simply a bank of information in the computer’s memory).
- Activation of the QFS ends the ‘central banking system,’ perpetuating so-called ‘debt s*****y’
- Official site of Quantum Financial System (QFS): Enter your personal information and find out how much money you have in your account. https://t.me/+9c_RzxhDf6E5ZDAx
DINAR REVALUATION UPDATE:Iranian Influence in Iraqi Government Bureaucracy and Legal System in 2024, 26 AUGUST
Iranian Influence in Iraqi Government Bureaucracy and Legal System in 2024
In 2024, Iranian sympathizers have permeated various levels of Iraq's government and legal system, significantly impacting national policy and the daily lives of Iraqis.
The Popular Mobilization Force (PMF), an umbrella organization for multiple militias, stands out as a key instrument of Iranian influence. This group's growing power within Iraq's political and institutional landscape has fueled concerns over the country's sovereignty.
PMF's Role and Expansion
Since 2022, the PMF has markedly enhanced its influence over the Iraqi state and government. Initially formed in response to the Islamic State's (ISIS) advance and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani's call to defend Iraq in 2014, the PMF has evolved into a dominant force. Its expansion has been facilitated by Iran's backing, with the PMF's leaders often expressing loyalty to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
Penetration of Iraqi Institutions
The PMF's influence is not confined to security and military affairs but extends into the political realm. For instance, the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) movement, an Iran-backed militia, has made concerted efforts to control the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research. This control allows the group to recruit young cadres and undermine the youth reform movements that have challenged the militias' authority.
Impact on Iraqi Society
The pervasive Iranian influence in Iraq affects not only the government and legal system but also impacts the lives of ordinary Iraqis. The case of Sara Saleem, a dual Iraqi-American citizen and leading businesswoman, illustrates the perils faced by those who challenge Iran-backed actors. Saleem was coerced into securing a substantial loan and transferring shares of her real estate company to her partners, who are believed to have close ties with Iran. Her subsequent kidnapping by an Iran-backed militia underscores the risks involved in opposing such entities.
Implications for U.S. Interests
The increasing Iranian influence in Iraq poses challenges to U.S. interests in the region. The U.S. has been a target of attacks by Iran-backed militias in Iraq, particularly since the escalation of tensions in 2023. These attacks have not only endangered American lives but also threatened the relative stability Iraq had enjoyed in recent years.
U.S. Response and Policy Considerations
To counter Iranian influence, U.S. policy must focus on strengthening Iraq's autonomy and resilience. This involves supporting Iraq's financial institutions through global integration and digitization, as well as fostering broader ties between Iraq and other countries, including Gulf states. Additionally, maintaining a military presence in Iraq and considering decisive military measures to address attacks by Iran-backed militias are critical for protecting U.S. interests and preventing an ISIS resurgence.
Conclusion
As of August 26, 2024, Iranian sympathizers within Iraq's government and legal system continue to exert significant influence, shaping national policy and impacting the daily lives of Iraqis. The U.S. must adopt a multifaceted approach to counter this influence, focusing on strengthening Iraq's institutions, maintaining a military presence, and considering targeted military actions.
A revealing case in Iraq , 26 AUGUST
By Greg Tosi
Real Clear Wire
In the Middle East, much of the world’s attention is on the conflict in Gaza and appropriately so.
But other challenges remain. In Iraq, where American military forces liberated the country from the evil clutches of Saddam Hussein just a few years ago, the independence of an American ally is increasingly in doubt. Iranian sympathizers exist at all levels of Iraqi’s government bureaucracy and legal system. Iraqi governmental decisions are made not in the best interests of the Iraqi people, but in the best interests of Iran’s mullahs.
This perverse Iranian influence threatens American interests and undermines two decades of U.S. effort in blood and treasure to bring democracy and prosperity to Iraq. The Iranian influence affects national policy and the daily lives of Iraqis.
One legal case is particularly revealing. Sara Saleem, a dual Iraqi-American citizen, is a leading businesswoman in Iraq. Her company competes for and regularly wins the biggest construction contracts in Iraq. She has developed housing and commercial projects in every region of Iraq. Today, however, she must live in Virginia because Iranian interests threaten her life.
Ten years ago, Saleem entered a business partnership with three brothers. Saleem’s partners – Nizar, Namir, and Ramez Hanna Nasri – used what she believes were deceptive tactics to persuade her to secure a $100 million loan from the Trade Bank of Iraq. They convinced her to transfer these funds to them and to relinquish half of her real estate company’s shares without compensation and with the promise of significantly expanding the Safah project in the Basra Governorate.
Shortly after that, an Iran-backed militia – working with the Nasri brothers – kidnapped Saleem. With courage and tenacity, Sara escaped captivity and returned to a relatively normal, everyday suburban life. Since then, the Nasri brothers have been convicted of criminal fraud in Iraq and are under house arrest. Unfortunately, Saleem must continuously look over her shoulder, and the Nasri brothers still own half of Sara’s construction company, worth tens of millions of dollars.
Saleem’s civil case is pending appeal before Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council. Lower courts have ruled both for her and against her. The president of the Supreme Judicial Council is Faeq Zaidan.
The U.S. House of Representatives has labeled Zaidan a “tool of Iranian influence” in legislation. Zaidan will make the final decision on Saleem’s case, and she fears Iran’s influence in Iraq’s court system will cause an unjust decision to be meted out by the Iraqi judiciary.
An article recently published in Iraq hints that Prime Minister Sudani, who relies on Iran-backed militias for security, might have intervened on behalf of the Nasri brothers. Here is the key paragraph in English:
“The story begins with heavy steps, about the director of the Iraqi Trade Bank, who was informed of a ‘semi-mandatory’ order from government decision-making agencies, and delivered to him a decree that does not violate, a decree covered with poison, but pretending to be honey, in a proposed settlement for the file of Hanna's children by paying half the amount looted by them, while the other half, paid by Sara Hamid, owner of the company "Falcon Al-Jareh Real Estate Investments," to be this woman victim of this deal.”
Freedom of the press is limited in Iraq. Only the most veiled reference to the highest level of power is advisable. Thus, an “order from government decision-making agencies” really means the prime minister. Prime Minister Sudani and President Zaidan have a chance to show that Iraq is not a tool of Iran and that it will stand against corruption and malign foreign influence by giving Sara Saleem control of her company.
Saleem’s case might appear to be a small, isolated dispute in the global scheme of international relations, but it will be highly indicative of Iraq’s future. While much of the world’s attention is on Gaza, the Biden administration would be well advised to use its good offices to ensure justice for Sara Saleem in Baghdad.
Greg Tosi is a former senior staff member in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.
https://highlandcountypress.com/opinions/revealing-case-iraq#gsc.tab=0
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