IMO......All the articles say they have legislation that needs to be passed and the next meeting is in the "middle of the year......
My understanding is that Frank has also said that the rate doesn't matter but "freedom of movement of capital" is important. That is Article 8 compliance. They cannot be Article 8 compliant if the country is functioning under a MCP. A MCP includes a parallel rate of greater than 2% of the official rate by IMF definition. Saleh said last year that the parallel rate is "REQUIRED" to be 2% or less of the official rate. We were taught here years ago that this 2% or less needs to be maintained for a period of 90 days. The parallel rate is still around 14% difference.
While Iraq appears to be on the way to a full RI, I believe there will be an interim step very soon. If they make the move I anticipate the MCP will be quickly eliminated and they can proceed to a full RI.
A RI is full Article 8 compliance and a return to the rate that reflects the True Value. In 2009, the MOP/MOF stated move to 1.14-1.17USD/IQD and monitor for inflation up to 3 years and then move the rate to reflect the True Value of 3.208USD/IQD. This was the plan of Dr S and it appears they are back on track following that plan. Keep in mind that Ernst & Young stated $1.30 in 2010 and the SIGIR report stated that had the project to Delete the Zeros not been postponed, the IQD would have been brought on par with the USD.
In light of the assessment of the experts of the International Monetary Fund mission of the measures taken by the government and the Central Bank, which contributed to maintaining the transition of the Iraqi economy from a state of fragility to a gradual recovery during the second half of 2023, it turned out that “growth in the non-oil sector increased strongly in 2023 by 6%, of GDP with inflation declined to 4% after it was 7.5% at the beginning of the year.
This comes due to the measures of the Central Bank to control the general level of prices and reduce inflation, which is the most prominent task of monetary policy achieved, which is the lowest inflation rates achieved for 2023 in regional and Arab countries, and achieved because of the efforts made in regulating foreign trade financing and cooperating with the government in securing basic foodstuffs and providing ration card materials at subsidized prices.
The occurrence of these developments, the stability of the foreign exchange market, the safety and transparency of 95% of the external remittances of traders and importers through the electronic platform and at the official price are attributed to the opening of direct dealings with 30 foreign and Arab correspondent banks and the opening of dealing in local currencies of countries with which Iraq has an important trade exchange such as China, Turkey, the UAE and India
.
After some interruptions following the implementation of new anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing controls on cross-border payments in November 2022, improved compliance with the new system, and the Central Bank of Iraq’s initiatives to reduce transaction processing times led to a recovery in trade finance in the second half of 2023.
The IMF welcomed “the initial steps taken towards establishing the Single Treasury Account (TSA), which is a critical tool for improving liquidity management.” Reference should be made here to “the efforts made by the central bank aimed at eliminating the surplus liquidity. The central bank increased interest rate on monetary policy instruments, raised mandatory reserve requirements, and began issuing 14-day Treasury bills last summer.
Therefore, the Fund called for supporting the existing efforts by the Central Bank by unifying untapped government deposits in the unified treasury account, refraining from fiscal policy in pro-cyclical trends, reducing dependence on monetary financing, improving public debt management, and from the insight of the International Monetary Fund confirms that the steps taken by the government and the central bank to accelerate the digital transformation of the economy, reduce dependence on money and enhance financial inclusion, which supports trends to launch a financial inclusion strategy.
Official statistics indicate that 558 government agencies published electronic payment tools in 2023, compared to 12 government agencies in 2022, and the number of cards to localize employees’ salaries reached 8653,000 cards, the number of cards issued is 17822310 cards, and the value of using electronic payment tools in 2023 amounted to about 12 million dollars through 32842 movements.
The Iraqi Minister of Trade, Atheer Al-Ghurairi, affirmed that Iraq fulfilled the conditions necessary to become a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) following the completion of economic reforms and the enhancement of the investment climate.
Al-Ghurairi told the Emirates News Agency (WAM) that Baghdad finalized issues related to goods and services in accordance with the deadlines set for integration into the international trade system.
It’s been crazy quiet overnight …I feel like it’s the calm before the storm.
...JP Morgan (Jaime Dimon) made a statement that “Iraq will be the savior of the world economy ” ...That tells you the importance of what is going on in Iraq right now. There is a tremendous amount of effort and hope around this event.
I feel confident we are extremely close…Maybe today or tomorrow…I’ll take either...or whenever we get it. I am afraid to let myself get to excited.
Last time I checked [Forex]…it [dinar] was about $2.80. You cannot exchange at that yet but it does show things are changing and something is cooking.
Parliamentary Law Requires Consensus Before Legislating The Oil And Gas Law
Information / Baghdad Today, Thursday, the head of the Parliamentary Legal Committee, Mortada Al-Saadi, stipulated consensus between the political blocs before legislating the oil and gas law.
Al-Saadi said in an interview with the Maalouma Agency, “The oil and gas law cannot pass without a political agreement,” noting, “There are many laws that need political agreement, most notably the oil and gas law.”
He added, "The law is a sensitive law that requires deep study and discussion, and cannot be passed without a political agreement." LINK
...We know that the dinar and the other currencies have been coming in on the forex and trading upward...the bank screens reflect that. They reflect the fact that the currencies are trading up and still blinking - on the screen, which means they're not set.
They're not stable, but they're continually moving upward in value . And they're blinking. So...'
What are we waiting on?
I think they're just waiting for the currencies to hit the values that they want them to hit before we get started. And it would appear that they are moving in that direction...So I'm excited about where we are...And I really think that we're in really good shape right now...