Iraq sees risk of regional conflict if Gaza war resumes
BAGHDAD: Iraq sees a risk of regional conflict if the current truce in Gaza is not turned into a permanent cease-fire, the Iraqi prime minister’s foreign affairs adviser said, as mediators sought an extension of the temporary four-day Israel-Hamas truce.
Israel’s devastating bombardment of Gaza in response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel has drawn in Iran-aligned armed groups in the region including Lebanese Hezbollah and several Iraqi factions, who have mounted near-daily attacks on Israeli and US forces.
But there have been no reports of attacks on US forces in Iraq or Syria since Israel and Hamas began a four-day truce last week that was set to expire on Monday, compared to over 70 in the weeks prior.
Some of the main Iraqi armed factions behind the recent attacks, including Kataib Sayyid Al-Shuhada and Kataeb Hezbollah, have announced they will abide by the Gaza cease-fire but indicated they would resume attacks if it ends.
They have also said in statements that they still seek the eventual ouster of US forces in Iraq. There are around 2,500 US troops on a mission the US says is to advise and assist Iraqi forces battling remnants of Islamic State.
“The entire region is on the verge of a devastating conflict that may include everyone, and the extent of its expansion or how to control and stop it is not known,” said Farhad Alaadin, foreign affairs adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani.
“For this reason, we see any cease-fire in the conflict as beneficial and important at this stage for the people of Palestine and Gaza first and for all countries in the region, including Iraq,” he told Reuters.
European Union Ambassador to Iraq Thomas Seiler said in a social media post that he hopes Iraqi factions “continue with their cessation of attacks.”
Two sets of US strikes in Iraq last week killed 10 members of Kataeb Hezbollah, according to posts by the group on social media, a move condemned by the Iraqi government as escalatory and a violation of sovereignty.
Kataeb Hezbollah is part of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a group of mostly Shiite Muslim armed groups formed to fight Islamic State in 2014 that became an official security agency under the command of the prime minister.
While technically part of the state, some of the PMF’s most powerful Iran-backed factions often act outside the chain of command. Sudani has said attacks by armed groups on foreign forces in Iraq were unlawful and went against the country’s national interest.
Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) – The CEO of the Iraq Development Fund, Muhammad Al-Najjar, confirmed on Monday that negotiations are taking place with several Arab and foreign countries expressing their desire to go into partnerships with the Iraq Development Fund.
Al-Najjar told the Iraqi News Agency (INA) that negotiations are ongoing with countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Italy to carry out projects in Iraq through the Iraq Development Fund.
The Iraqi official indicated that there are also negotiations related to investments with Japan.
Al-Najjar added that discussions are underway with six or seven sovereign development funds around the world to implement projects with the Iraq Development Fund in the six sectors where the fund is involved.
The Iraq Development Fund has six funds, which are the Environment Fund, the Digital Transformation Fund, the Housing Fund, the Industry Fund, the Agriculture Fund, and the Education Fund.
Al-Najjar explained earlier that the Iraq Development Fund will focus on activating the role of the private sector in strategic and development projects, which was not previously happening.
Awake-in-3D: Iraq’s Dollar Crisis and Lack of Confidence in the IQD, 13 DEC
RV/GCR University 2: Iraq’s Dollar Crisis and Lack of Confidence in the IQD
On December 12, 2023 By Awake-In-3D
A Pragmatic Analysis of an Iraqi Dinar RV in Today’s Global Financial Landscape
This multi-part article series discusses the following subjects:
Part 1: Iraq’s Dollar Crisis and Lack of Confidence in the IQD
Part 2: The Current IQD Peg and Iraq’s Financial Constraints
Part 3: Iraq’s Pivot Towards BRICS and Geopolitical Shift
Part 4: Challenges Facing Iraq for an “Independent” RV at $3.00+ per IQD
Part 5: A Gold-Backed PetroYuan as an IQD RV Solution
Part 6: Why Saudi Arabia’s Recent Geopolitical Pivot Matters to Our RV/GCR
Part 7: BRICS Alliance and its Potential Gold/Asset-Backed Common Trade Currency
Part 8: A Pragmatic and Realistic Base Case for a Meaningful RV/GCR
Part 1: Iraq’s Dollar Crisis and Lack of Confidence in the IQD
PREMISE: Iraq, once a robust economic force with a currency $3.00 per IQD, now contends with a self-induced dollar crisis, evident in a pervasive lack of trust in the Iraqi Dinar (IQD).
The widespread reliance on the US dollar for daily transactions reflects a profound mistrust ingrained in Iraq’s political and economic landscape, exacerbated by government corruption, political instability, and the constant threat of terrorism.
The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) and the Government of Iraq (GOI) have pegged the IQD at 1310 IQD/USD, pursuing a cautious route towards financial stability. However, the potential to re-peg the IQD at a higher rate, such as $1.00/IQD, encounters formidable obstacles rooted in existing instability and insecurity, posing a risk of economic chaos.
In a strategic shift away for the USA/Western alliance, Iraq turns towards the BRICS alliance, particularly fostering close economic ties with China and Russia, signaling a pursuit of stability and economic revitalization.
This re-calibration within BRICS, coupled with geopolitical shifts in global energy dynamics, provides Iraq a transformative prospect to break free from the conventional PetroDollar system and forge a new economic currency structure.
These significant geopolitical currents warrant a detailed analysis of Iraq’s economic challenges and, more critically, a realistic forward path for a significant RV of the Iraqi Dinar.
Iraq, once a thriving economic powerhouse, now grapples with a self-induced dollar crisis.
The Iraqi Dinar (IQD) finds itself on shaky ground, lacking the confidence of both citizens and institutions alike. In the daily transactions of Iraqi citizens, the prevalent use of dollars for everyday essentials reflects a pervasive mistrust in the national currency.
Iraqi banks further contribute to the dollarization phenomenon, driven by the reluctance of foreign businesses to engage in transactions using the Iraqi Dinar.
Iraq finds itself caught in a paradox – it has the potential to re-peg the IQD at a higher rate, but the existing issues of instability and insecurity act as insurmountable barriers. The increased US dollar reserves needed to support a high peg rate at this time would equate to financial suicide.
This crisis of confidence in the IQD is not arbitrary; it is deeply rooted in the political and economic landscape of Iraq.
Government corruption, political instability, and the persistent threat of terrorist activities within and around the country’s borders have created an environment where trust in the national currency is eroding.
The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) and the Government of Iraq (GOI) attempt to maintain a semblance of stability by pegging the IQD at 1310 IQD/USD. However, this peg is not without reason; it is a cautious response to the challenges that a higher peg rate would bring.
Iraq finds itself caught in a paradox – it has the potential to re-peg the IQD at a higher rate, say $1.00/IQD, but the existing issues of instability and insecurity act as insurmountable barriers.
The increased US dollar reserves needed to support such a peg rate at this time would equate to financial suicide for Iraq.
The amplified instability and the deep-rooted no-confidence crisis would render such a currency RV attempt economically unsustainable at this time.
In response to these challenges, Iraq is pivoting away from its traditional alliances and turning towards the BRICS alliance, with a specific focus on bolstering strong economic ties with China and Russia.
A recent article highlighting Iraq’s strategic shift towards BRICS underscores the nation’s quest for stability and economic rejuvenation. In contrast to the perceived lack of interest or capability from the USA/Western alliance, China and Russia are seen as partners with a personal stake and the ability to help Iraq stabilize its economy – and a practical scenario for a significant RV.
An impending alignment of Iraq with BRICS raises questions about the future dynamics of the global energy markets, particularly in oil and gas.
The collaboration of Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and potentially Iraq within BRICS is positioned to reshape the supply dynamics of global oil and gas.
As these nations assert dominance, the traditional PetroDollar system is expected to diminish rapidly. Iraq, finding itself at the crossroads, could emerge with the potential to embrace a new economic currency structure, breaking away from the reliance on the US dollar and the Euro.
Part 2 of this article series coming soon…
READ: Iraq is not in the same situation as Kuwait was in the 1991 Kuwaiti Dinar currency series upgrade.
US dollar, Iraqi dinar - they have one of the biggest US dollar reserves on the planet. And that's what backs up their dinar (outside of their energy sales). They are not de-dollarizing to do business internationally without using the dollar...they're not getting rid of the US dollar. It's still part of their reserve. If they're going to sell oil to the United States they're going to use the US dollar...
The inflation for Iraq is artificial inflation. You go back and look, How many customers did Iraq have back in the day?
How much oil were they selling? What was the value of the currency back in those days? $3.22 value. How many customers do they have today? They have way more customers. They have more production. The price per barrel is more than in those days when it [the dinar] was $3.22. It's not a market bearing inflation, it's artificial inflation. They have more customers. They have a bigger reserve than they've ever had. One of the biggest in the world for the US dollar. That's the reality that you're looking at. You are sitting on a gold mine.