Monday, October 23, 2023
The conflict in Gaza threatens Iraq’s stability, progress in US-Iraq relations, 23 OCT
Shafaq News/ Militant group Hamas’s October 7 attack against Israel threatens to disrupt more than normalizing relations with Israel. Before the attack, the Middle East and North Africa were on a slow path to stabilization. Arab states and Israel were beginning to settle their differences, Saudi Arabia and Iran had established relations, and the Yemen conflict was slowly ending.
In Iraq, economic prospects were slowly improving after its economy contracted due to the pandemic, exacerbated by ongoing anti-Iran protests and sectarian strife. Moreover, as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute pointed out in March, Iraq was “enjoying its most stable period since 2003.” US-Iraq security relations even improved after the Iraqi Parliament called for the withdrawal of US troops in 2020. In August, both countries reaffirmed their commitment to increasing security cooperation.
That period of relative stability may be coming to an end. After Israel responded to Hamas’s deadly October 7 attacks, Iraqis took to the streets in massive pro-Palestinian protests, burning Israeli flags and chanting anti-American slogans. Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammed al-Sudani expressed solidarity with the Palestinian cause and has described the Israeli response as “brutal Zionist aggression.” His predecessors, including Mustafa al-Kadhimi, Haidar al-Abadi, Adil Abdul-Mahdi, and Nouri al-Maliki, echoed Sudani’s solidarity, adding that the Hamas attacks were a “natural response” to “Israeli provocations and violations.” Iraq’s Iran-backed militias, such as the Badr Organization, Asa’ib Ahl al Haq, and Kataib Hezbollah, expressed their support for the attacks and declared their readiness to attack American targets should the US intervene.
As Amir al-Kaabi and Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy point out, much of the Iraqi response is theater. Many militia threats were conditioned on unlikely events, such as direct US intervention or escalation. These threats also employ a little strategic ambiguity: what counts as direct or indirect intervention is up for interpretation. In fact, Kaabi and Knights describe the general response, even by Iraq’s most rabid militias, as “cautious” and, in some cases, “muted.” It should also be of little surprise that the Iraqi response is overwhelmingly pro-Hamas. As other Arab states were normalizing relations in 2022, Iraq enacted a law that made establishing relations with Israel punishable by death or life imprisonment. Anti-Israel sentiment runs deep, and the facts about the brutality of Hamas’s attack are not likely to resonate.
Still, the situation poses several difficulties for the United States. First, as Israel’s response continues and the conditions of the Palestinians in Gaza deteriorate, there will be increased pressure on the militias to act. For example, Abu Azrael, arguably Iraq’s most famous Iran-backed militant group, has reportedly gone to Lebanon and is awaiting any opportunity to enter Israel. Should such a “grassroots” intervention expand, the potential for escalation—and, thus, a greater US role—will increase. Second, strategic ambiguity can be a double-edged sword. Should Israel’s efforts to defeat Hamas succeed, militias may lower the standard for what counts as intervention, again setting conditions for escalation.
Perhaps more difficult for the United States is that it may not be in its interest, this time, to ignore this predictable, if muted, pro-Hamas response, given the brutality of the last Hamas attack. Indeed, it is in everyone’s interest to alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people and it is reasonable to express concern—even outrage—over their worsening conditions. However, committing atrocity, even where there is a just cause, should not be tolerated.
As Daniel Henninger of the Wall Street Journal points out, direct attacks against civilians are becoming the “new normal.” While Hamas’s attacks were particularly shocking, Russia has also deliberately attacked civilians in its war against Ukraine, killing around ten thousand. To reverse this trend, there is little option other than finding ways to hold actors who engage in war crimes accountable. In the case of Russia, the United States has intervened on behalf of Ukraine and, along with its European allies, imposed sanctions on Russia. If the Iraqi militia reaction is to be taken seriously, a similar intervention in Gaza may lead to an escalation that undermines its larger relationship with Iraq.
For example, Kataib Hezbollah’s attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria draw little support from the Iraqi people. However, US attempts to defend itself enable these militias to mobilize large protests when those defensive operations occur in Iraq. Still, Iraqi popular disinterest in what they view as an external conflict has provided something of an obstacle to escalation. However, given the largely anti-Israel-pro-Palestinian sentiment of the Iraqi people, militia attacks against US targets as part of a defense of the Palestinian people will likely draw support. Moreover, whatever little leverage the Iraqi government has to curb such attacks will have disappeared.
Making matters more complicated is the fact that escalation is not simply dependent on Israeli and US action. After the destruction of the Baptist Hospital in Gaza on October 17, Sudani immediately attributed it to Israeli action and called for a day of mourning. Shortly thereafter, unknown actors used drones to attack US troops. That the destruction of the hospital may be due to the actions of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group will not likely impact Iraqi public opinion nor the Iraqi government’s position, which means the potential for escalation increases.
Thus, the way ahead for the United States is not clear. The simple message that innocent civilians should not be subject to murder, kidnap, and torture will get muted as Palestinian civilians flee their homes and their casualties climb, even if Israeli operations conform to the law of war. Still, the United States can chart a way forward by pressuring its regional partners, including Iraq, to condemn the brutality, if not the reason, for the Hamas attacks. Most may not, but even a superficial acknowledgment of the indefensible nature of responding to injustice with atrocity will reinforce norms against directly targeting civilians.
The United States should also act as a moderating influence on the conflict and find ways to avoid escalation while enabling Israel’s efforts to defend itself against Hamas and its allies. While doing so will be difficult, the United States can begin by mobilizing humanitarian relief for those affected by the conflict. It should also closely monitor the conflict for potential escalation on any side and condition assistance to any partner on cooperation to de-escalate the conflict. For the Iraqi government, its influence over the militias is limited, even if it did want to intervene. However, it can partner with the United States to ensure U.S. intentions are effectively communicated and misunderstandings kept to a minimum..
Taking these steps will not fundamentally change the dynamics of the conflict nor alleviate the pressure on Israel to destroy Hamas. But it may create opportunities to mitigate the damage the conflict may cause to Middle East stability and US influence.
Iraqi PM denounces attacks on foreign forces, reaffirms support for Palestinians, 23 OCT
Iraqi PM denounces attacks on foreign forces, reaffirms support for Palestinians, 23 OCT
Shafaq News/ Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia Al-Sudani strongly condemned the attacks targeting foreign forces in Iraq and reaffirmed his country's unwavering support for the Palestinian cause.
In a statement released by the spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Major General Yahya Rasoul, Al-Sudani expressed Iraq's firm stance "against the aggression faced by the residents of the Gaza Strip." He reiterated Iraq's moral position in supporting the struggle of the Palestinian people.
Additionally, he underscored the rejection of attacks on Iraqi bases housing Global Coalition advisors, who are in Iraq at the official invitation of the government. These advisors are crucial in supporting Iraqi security forces through training, qualification, and consultation.
The Commander-in-Chief directed all security services to carry out their duties diligently, uphold the law, and track down those responsible for these attacks. He emphasized the importance of safeguarding the security and stability achieved through the sacrifices of Iraq's armed forces.
Recent attacks on military bases, including Ain al-Assad in Anbar and Harir in Erbil, were claimed by armed factions identifying themselves as the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq."
Al-Nujaba responds to Baghdad's statement regarding U.S. forces, 23 OCT
Al-Nujaba responds to Baghdad's statement regarding U.S. forces, 23 OCT
Shafaq News / Al-Nujaba Movement, one of the armed factions opposing the American presence in Iraq and closely affiliated with Iran, responded to a statement issued by the military spokesperson of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, condemning attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq.
In a statement, Al-Nujaba stated, "We regret the statement issued by the government's media office, in which they describe the military bases housing the occupying American forces as 'bases' of the Iraqi forces hosting the advisors of the international coalition present in Iraq upon an official invitation from the government."
The statement added, "These occupying forces wreak havoc and corruption in Iraq, violate sovereignty every day, every hour, by land and air. They entered Iraq through deceit, circumventing the agreement, as former Prime Minister Mr. Haider al-Abadi mentioned. Their helicopters and combat drones continue to violate the skies of Baghdad and the provinces without permission or approval from the government."
It continued, "The government does not know their numbers or the types of their forces, nor their movements between Jordan, Syria, Kuwait, and Iraq. Moreover, the Zionists are present in Iraq within these forces; they have permanent centers and bases within them. Such statements justify and legitimize the occupation, presenting an image that contradicts the harsh reality, indicating a lack of seriousness in removing the occupying forces and ending their presence in Iraq, as promised by the government before its formation."
The statement emphasized, "America deals arrogantly and haughtily with such statements from a country asserting its sovereignty. Unfortunately, some - for payment - attempt to circumvent and justify the presence of the occupation to escape embarrassment and the legitimate, national, and historical responsibilities. Such statements remind us of the post-2003 period when the United Nations and America themselves officially stated that American forces were occupying forces. However, some paid politicians and media figures come out and call them friendly or liberating forces to justify their occupation, deceiving the Iraqi society with such blatant lies."
It pointed out, "There is a decision from the Iraqi Parliament to expel the occupation, and yet America, with audacity, rejects that from successive governments. It has recently expanded its bases and increased their numbers."
The statement strongly emphasized, "clear and transparent positions, describing matters accurately, bring the government closer to the people, enhancing trust and credibility. Furthermore, let everyone know that the million-man demonstration and the Parliament's decision to end the occupation and its repeated violations of Iraq's sovereignty legitimize and justify its resistance at all levels."
"Standing in the path of resistance or in the path of expelling the occupier by any means represents a violation of the law, ethics, values, and national principles. Therefore, we hope for a unified stance from all of Iraq, government, people, and resistance, towards ending this odious occupation. The government should hold accountable those who beautify its presence to deceive society and reveal the true reality to the people", the statement concluded.
https://shafaq.com/en/Iraq-News/Al-Nujaba-responds-to-Baghdad-s-statement-regarding-U-S-forces
So what comes out in Iraqi news this period? BY DINAR IRAQ & DONG VIETNAM, 23 OCT
So what comes out in Iraqi news this period?
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