A “disturbing” economic vision about the relationship between oil prices and the budget deficit
Yesterday, on Friday, September 8, 2023, economist Nabil confirmed that the oil revenues achieved until August 2023 amounted to $61.513 billion, which is equivalent to 80 trillion dinars. He also indicated that the estimated oil revenues in the 2023 budget are $90 billion, which is equivalent to 117 trillion dinars.
According to a post by Al-Marsoumi, which I followed for information, the oil revenues earned until August 2023 amount to $61.513 billion, which is equivalent to 80 trillion dinars. He also stated that the estimated oil revenues in the 2023 budget are expected to reach $90 billion, which is equivalent to 117 trillion dinars.
He said that if Iraq continues to sell its oil at $85 a barrel, they could earn $8.7 billion per month in oil revenues for the remaining third of the year.
During a discussion, he highlighted that the revenue generated from oil could potentially reach 34.8 billion dollars between the months of September and December 2023. This would result in a total oil revenue of about 96.213 billion dollars or 125 trillion dinars for the year of 2023. Additionally, this would lead to a surplus of 6.213 billion dollars, or 8 trillion dinars, which can be used to reduce the deficit in the 2023 budget. However, this is only possible if all non-oil revenues estimated in the 2023 budget, which is about 17 trillion dinars, are realized. This may be unlikely though.
According to the economist, the net non-oil revenues earned in the first half of 2023 were only 421 billion dinars. This means that continuing with the budget deficit for the year 2023 will not significantly reduce the high price of oil.
The current draft budget shows a deficit of 63.275 trillion dinars. This is based on the assumption of a $70 per barrel price for oil, as more than 95 percent of budget revenues are generated from oil sales. These figures were shared by the Council of Ministers.
[via PDK] What I am hearing from a number of my group contacts is that money will be moving on or by Tuesday. Some indicators are expected tomorrow or Monday to let us know if we are on target for that...
chatter has been off the hook for the last 72 hours or so that they 24 hours or so for things to really launch. I think my groups and bankers are probably accurate and we are possibly this close to finally having this thing nailed down with their expectations for Tuesday. They are overall just down right excited. Reminder - None of us know the timing…we just know what we expect according to the news a chatter.
So many rumors out there...I definitely feel like we are close. IT was off the hook yesterday with expectation... Many thought it would happen overnight last night… I really didn’t think it was ready yet...
We continue to hear fantastic personal banking stories...So many banking stories from you all from wealth managers etc… Comment: I said it will happen 9-11... MarkZ: For whatever reason my gut is saying the same thing…
From Iraq...A chief strategist of the AFC Iraq fund is talking about how “Banks will fuel the next market phase of Iraq” they have made exceptional progress. Top tier banks have a lot of funding and money and this is where the future is going to explode for Iraq…and they are now ready to start funding entrepreneurs, projects etc…. This is a great piece that shows us where Iraq is heading...
We were told the banking implementation is key for them to be able to change their value. It also brings financial security.
...lots of quiet…but its enough to get some a little excited. I really thought we would some leaks or news by this morning…but I don’t have them yet. We just need to stay calm and patient.
Turkey "Turns The Tables" On Iraq.. Baghdad Is Demanding More Than $3 Billion In Compensation To Ankara
Politics |Today Baghdad today - Erbil Oil expert Kovind Sherwani confirmed today, Saturday (September 9, 2023), that the decision of the International Arbitration Court in Paris obligated Turkey to pay compensation to Iraq with a fine of one billion and 400 million dollars.
Sherwani told "Baghdad Today", "The Turkish government initially announced its commitment to the decision and stopped the export of oil through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, but it issued a statement in which it confirmed that the court's decision included five items in favor of Ankara."
He added, "According to the decision and provisions published by Turkey, there are compensations that Iraq must pay to the Turkish government amounting to more than 950 million dollars."
He pointed out that "all visits by Turkish officials did not lead to an agreement and settlement for the purpose of resuming oil exports," adding, "The cessation causes harm to the three parties, Baghdad, Ankara, and the Kurdistan region."
While Sherwani pointed out that “the issue of the oil dispute will not be resolved through the courts because it will take a long time and we will need money and expenses to be borne by all parties,” he stressed that “the solution is to sit at the negotiating table and solve the crisis radically.”
The Kurdistan Region oil file was transferred between the Iraqi government and the Turkish government, from the courts of Paris to the courts of the United States of America. Baghdad and Ankara filed lawsuits against each other in American courts.
Iraq demands that Turkey pay a fine of (two billion and 400 million) dollars, for violating the agreement signed with it in 1973. For its part, Turkey has other accounts and is demanding compensation from Baghdad in the amount of (950 million) dollars .
On this basis, the Turkish government filed a lawsuit against the Iraqi government before an American court, demanding that Baghdad pay it compensation amounting to $956 million, refusing to pay any compensation to Iraq .
According to a report by the "Middle East Eye" website, based in the British capital, London, about the problems between Turkey and Iraq regarding the export of Kurdistan region's oil through the port of Ceyhan, the Turkish government filed a lawsuit against the Iraqi government before the District Court of Columbia in the American capital, Washington, according to which it refuses to pay any compensation to Iraq, Baghdad demands compensation amounting to $956 million.
It is noteworthy that Iraq has not paid part of the fees for transporting oil through Turkish territory since the 1990s. The international arbitration panel set an interest rate on this debt, which increases successively whenever Iraq delays payment .
Turkey says, according to the report, that with the interest rate set by the International Arbitration Tribunal in Paris calculated for the amounts that each of the two countries must pay to the other, the amount that Iraq must pay to it becomes greater than what it must pay to Iraq .
In this regard, the report believes that Iraq will receive compensation amounting to $2.6 billion after calculating interest, while Turkey will receive $3.5 billion, meaning that Ankara will gain $919 million for the difference between the two informants for the period preceding the international arbitration panel’s decision, in addition to $37.7 million. Dollars in interest after the Authority’s decision, bringing the total to $956 million .
The export of oil from the Kurdistan region through the Turkish port of Ceyhan to abroad was halted on March 25, in response to a decision issued by the international arbitration panel in Paris based on a lawsuit filed by the Iraqi authorities against Turkey.
The report indicated that Iraq did not inform the Turkish authorities of the matter, despite efforts made to discuss how to take action following the International Chamber of Commerce’s decision, a decision that accuses Turkey of violating its agreement with Baghdad and practicing oil trade in isolation from Baghdad and directly with the Kurdistan Regional Government between 2014 and 2018 .
According to the British website, after the Iraqi move, angry Turkish officials promised that Iraq would pay the price for this measure during their private talks, so last August 31, they took a step in this direction and filed a lawsuit in an American court, demanding compensation .
Following the decision of the Arbitration Court in Paris on March 25, Turkey suspended oil exports to the Kurdistan Region, which constitute 0.5% of the world’s total oil exports.
The British website wrote, “Turkey wants Iraq to withdraw the second lawsuit before the Arbitration Court in Paris regarding the period after 2018, in order to reach common ground regarding the court’s decision, as Ankara called on Iraq to find a payment system that satisfies both the governments of Baghdad and Erbil.” LINK
MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything and its best to watch the video so that you get everything in context. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions
CBD Gurus join the stream at the beginning today. News starts at about 30 minutes.
Member: Welcome to the weekend.
Member: Good Morning Beautiful Patriots, Mods, and MarkZ
Member: Monday is 9/11…Will this be our day???
MZ: I imagine the boards are lighting up. What I am hearing from a number of my group contacts is that money will be moving on or by Tuesday . Some indicators are expected tomorrow or Monday to let us know if we are on target for that.
MZ: Like all of you guys I take it with a grain of salt….maybe a bag. But, chatter has been off the hook for the last 72 hours or so that they 24 hours or so for things to really launch. .
MZ: The bond side is still quiet but there is a tremendous amount of rumors out there that some are getting paid. . I cannot find anyone to acknowledge they have been actually paid. So for me these are still in the rumor category.
MZ: I need a personal contact to tell me they have actual money and are spending it before I get excited.
MZ: Contacts in the middle east have been very quiet for the last day or two. So nothing that we can’t find in news articles on that front.
MZ: I think my groups and bankers are probably accurate and we are possibly this close to finally having this thing nailed down with their expectations for Tuesday. They are overall just down right excited.
MZ: Reminder- None of us know the timing…..we just know what we expect according to the news a chatter.
Member: MM SAID great things happening in IRAQ today.. Kurds getting paid therefore rate set!!’
MZ: We are trying to line up MilitiaMan on Monday to join us.
Member: Nader was saying that those you say Iraq is not going to RV …..you are basically full of it LOL
Member: Wolverine said last night that money is flowing and rv will happen Monday or Tuesday. Rod Steel confirmed…. both were on ppn.
Member: New fiscal year starts on October 1…. should be done by then
Member: Look at the US Debt clock at US Millionaires its going up evry minute or so. Something has to be moving!
Member: RV, Reset, Nesara…..everything is starting to run together
MZ: It was always designed to run together. They are all pieces of the overall complex change.
Member: Mark, thank you for staying with us and being real with the news.
Member: Everyone have a great weekend….keep thinking positive…thoughts become things.
Member: One day this will all be behind us...
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...I have to tell you the currency rate of 1/6 of a penny (IQD 1320 = USD 1) absolutely does not reflect the currency rate of the dinar. It is being “artificially suppressed”! But most importantly...many other financial wizards, much more knowledgeable than I, also feel this way.
To make a very good comparison one only needs to compare Iraq to Kuwait to see the imbalance and inequity happening (KWD 1 = USD 3.45).
I believe there is nothing more for the CBI to do but to issue the lower denominations and them to watch for inflation over a period, as their plan states they will do, and if all goes well, they liberate their currency to the global markets as in FOREX.I thought we needed the Oil and Gas Law passed first? Yes, I still believe they do and we might have to wait for it.
But there is a chance that based on how fast the economy is growing they may just put that on the back burner and rethink it (remember that Dr Shababi in 2012-2013 did not have this law passed, yet he was moving forward). We must remember the past.
I address this question to guru Kaperoni who still thinks Iraq has to grow their economy first to get the current TRUE VALUE of their currency reflected in their rate.
SO grow it to what standard? What is the benchmark when they would turn on their currency? Did they shut it off because of the war and so the war has been over for 20 years. Yes, that is Obama’s plan not Dr Shabibi and it is a bad plan and will not work.Iraq needs its currency to grow the country and its economy.
Iraq records the highest oil revenues since the start of 2023 which is also 2/3 more oil pumped than in 1991. The dinar rate in 1991 was over USD $3. So why is the currency still being under valued? Yes, it is important to get out of a “rentier economy” based solely on oil and this will also create yet more wealth. But what about right now...
I am talking about today! Doesn’t the oil wealth mean anything? Doesn’t the 113 billion in reserves and 132 tons of gold mean anything? Not to mention all the minerals and agricultural products being exported. So why still at 1/6 of a penny?
