The Dinar Under Siege: How Do Smuggling Mafias Strike the Cash Reserve?
Reports indicate a worrying increase in the activity of currency smuggling mafias in Iraq, which has raised widespread questions about the serious repercussions of this activity on the Iraqi economy.
Such operations that aim to transfer money abroad illegally lead to huge losses in the cash reserve and affect the state’s ability to finance basic needs, and contribute to the exacerbation of inflation and the deterioration of the value of the Iraqi dinar.
One economic analysis states that: “Currency smuggling operations weaken Iraq’s foreign exchange reserves, increasing the country’s inability to meet its basic import needs, and leading to a deterioration in the balance of payments. This illegal outflow of funds not only leads to weak domestic investment, but also creates an unstable economic environment, raising concerns among foreign and local investors alike.”
Another aspect of the negative effects of these operations appears in the financing of illegal activities such as drug trafficking and support for armed groups, indicating that currency smuggling is not only an economic issue, but a security problem that affects the stability of Iraq more deeply.
The various methods used to smuggle money include foreign imports that take place outside the official platform of the Central Bank, which is a violation of the laws and increases chaos in the market.
Reports indicate that some parties are deliberately seeking to weaken the national currency by raising the price of the dollar in an exaggerated manner, which raises questions about the possibility of internal parties colluding with smuggling networks to increase their profits at the expense of the national economy.
Expert Mohammed Al-Kubaisi explains that currency smuggling mafias exploit political and economic crises to increase their activities, taking advantage of weak government oversight and financial turmoil to achieve huge profits.
The problem seems to go beyond the economy to include deeper issues related to weak legislation and government control, which is prompting some analysts to call on the government to take strict measures, including imposing strict controls on financial transactions and setting policies that encourage local investment to limit the flow of money abroad. link
************
Lilfish: IMF Touts US Economy the Growth Engine of the World
WASHINGTON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy will continue to provide most of the thrust for global growth through the balance of this year and in 2025, led by robust consumer spending that has held up through a wrenching bout of inflation and the high interest rates used to tame it, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its 2024 and 2025 economic growth forecasts for the U.S. - the only developed economy to see its outlook marked up for both years - and its chief economist said the "soft landing" sought by the Federal Reserve in which inflation eases without big damage to the job market had largely been achieved.
Emerging market powerhouses India and Brazil also stood out on the upside of the IMF forecasts, while it dialed back growth expectations for China for this year and left next year's forecast for the world's No. 2 economy at a below-trend 4.5%.
Still, it warned that risks abound from armed conflicts, potential new trade wars and the hangover from the tight monetary policy employed by the Fed and other central banks to rein in inflation.
"Today, the IMF reported that the United States is leading the advanced economies on growth for the second year in a row," Lael Brainard, the director of the White House's National Economic Council, said in a statement.
The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook said the shifts will leave 2024 global GDP growth unchanged from the 3.2% projected by the global lender in July, setting a lackluster tone for growth as world finance leaders gather in Washington this week for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.
Global growth is projected to be 3.2% in 2025, one-tenth of a percentage point lower than forecast in July, while medium-term growth is expected to fade to a "mediocre" 3.1% in five years, well below its pre-pandemic trend, the report showed.
Nonetheless, the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said some countries, including the U.S., were showing resilience.
"The news on the U.S. is very good in a sense," Gourinchas said at a press conference in Washington. "The labor market picture remains one that is fairly robust, even though it has cooled off."
"I think the risks of a recession in the U.S. in the absence of a very sharp shock would be somewhat diminished," he said.
Although Gourinchas said it looked as if the global inflation battle had largely been won, he told Reuters in an interview there is a risk that monetary policy could "mechanically" become too tight without interest rate cuts in some countries as inflation subsides, weighing on growth and jobs.
CONSUMER STRENGTH
The IMF revised its 2024 U.S. growth forecast upward by two-tenths of a percentage point to 2.8% due largely to stronger-than-expected consumption fueled by rising wages and asset prices. The global lender also upgraded its 2025 U.S. growth outlook by three-tenths of a percentage point to 2.2%, slightly delaying a return to trend growth.