SANDY INGRAM CC NOTES HIGHLIGHTS, 20 SEPT

 Summary

Iraq faces a 2025 budget crisis due to declining oil prices, while Israel intercepts a drone from Iraq, escalating regional tensions.

Highlights

• 📉 Iraq’s 2025 budget is threatened by falling oil prices, impacting economic stability.
• 🚨 IMF warns Iraq’s budget projections may be overly optimistic amid reliance on oil revenues.
• 🌾 Lawmakers discuss diversifying income streams to boost agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing.
• 💰 Current tax policies in Iraq are among the lowest in the region, hindering revenue collection.
• 🚧 Efforts to improve border control aim to reduce smuggling and increase customs revenue.
• 🛡️ Israel intercepts a drone from Iraq, highlighting regional security concerns and Iranian influence.
• 📱 New war strategies raise fears of personal electronic devices being weaponized.

Key Insights

• 📉 Economic Vulnerability: Iraq’s budget is heavily reliant on oil, making it susceptible to global price fluctuations. Without diversification, fiscal stability is at risk.
• ⚠️ IMF Concerns: The IMF’s warning emphasizes the need for realistic budgeting, reflecting the dangers of overestimating oil revenue. This could lead to significant deficits.
• 🌱 Diversification Efforts: Iraq’s push to develop non-oil sectors is crucial for economic resilience. Boosting agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing could reduce dependency on oil.
• 🏛️ Tax System Reform: Iraq’s low tax-to-GDP ratio indicates untapped potential for revenue. Reforming tax policies could significantly improve fiscal health.
• 🔍 Smuggling and Corruption: The government’s revenue collection is hampered by smuggling. Addressing these issues is vital for improving customs revenue and economic stability.
• 🛡️ Regional Security Risks: The interception of a drone signals heightened tensions and security threats in the region, driven by Iranian-backed militias.
• 💣 Weaponization of Technology: The emergence of personal devices as weapons signifies a new threat landscape, necessitating heightened security measures and awareness.

IRAQ'S DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION & DINAR STABILITY @DINARREVALUATION

DINAR REVALUATION HIGHLIGHTS: NO DEVALUATION OF THE IRAQI DINAR!!, 20 SEPT

 Summary

Major updates indicate Iraq’s shift to a digital economy, potential banking reforms, and optimism about currency stability and growth.

Highlights

• 📈 Digital Transformation: Milish Man emphasizes the growth of a cashless economy in Iraq.
• 🏦 Banking Reforms: Firefly reports Iraq will have more digital banks than the Middle East’s entire region.
• 🎉 Behind the Scenes: Wolverine hints at significant, undisclosed progress happening this week.
• 💳 Electronic Payments: Mountain Goat states electronic payments aren’t necessary but will combat money laundering.
• 🌍 Oil Diversification: Prime Minister Al Sadani stresses the need for economic diversification amid falling oil prices.
• 🚫 No Devaluation: Pulu reassures that with new revenue streams, there will be no dinar devaluation.
• 📅 Curfew Announcement: The Iraqi government will impose a curfew for population census on November 20-21.

Key Insights

• 🌐 Digital Economy Growth: Transitioning to a cashless economy aligns Iraq with global trends, potentially enhancing transparency and efficiency. This could attract more foreign investment.
• 🏦 Banking Infrastructure Expansion: The anticipated increase in digital banks signifies a move towards modernization, improving financial access and reducing reliance on cash.
• 🚀 Positive Momentum: The insider information from Wolverine suggests that significant developments may be imminent, fostering a sense of optimism among investors.
• 🔒 Anti-Money Laundering Measures: While electronic payments are not essential for revaluation, their implementation can significantly reduce illicit financial activities, building trust in the economy.
• 📉 Economic Diversification Needs: Al Sadani’s remarks highlight the urgency for Iraq to diversify its economy beyond oil, which is crucial for long-term stability, especially amid fluctuating oil prices.
• 🔒 No Risk of Devaluation: Pulu’s confidence in stable dinar value, backed by new revenue sources and foreign reserves, counters prevailing fears of devaluation.
• 📊 Census and Governance: The planned curfew for a census reflects the government’s commitment to better governance and resource allocation based on accurate population data.

DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: CBI Governor Ali Al-Alaq's Statement on Dollar Provision and Exchange Rates, 20 SEPT

CBI Governor Ali Al-Alaq's Statement on Dollar Provision and Exchange Rates

On September 20, 2024, Ali Al-Alaq, the governor of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), reassured the public that the bank has mechanisms in place to guarantee the provision of dollars at the official rate for all legitimate activities and operations. 5

Financial Transfers and Exchange Rates

Auditable Transfers

Al-Alaq emphasized that all financial transfers are auditable and undergo a rigorous review process before implementation. 5 This ensures that operations are secure and controlled, providing dollars for commercial and personal channels, travelers, and other legitimate requests.

Exchange Rate Unrelated to Oil Prices

He clarified that the rise in exchange rates is not connected to the decline in oil prices. Iraq's foreign currency reserves are sufficient to defend the exchange rate, demonstrating the country's financial stability.  5

New Mechanisms for Dollar Provision

Enhanced Control Measures

The CBI has developed methods for each channel that secure dollar provision and exert significant control to verify the safety of operations prior to their execution. 5This includes a shift in external transfers, where audits now occur before transactions are carried out.

Official Exchange Rate Supports Foreign Trade

Al-Alaq highlighted that the official exchange rate supports foreign trade that meets the needs of citizens, emphasizing the importance of focusing on the volume of sales conducted by the CBI at the official rate.  5

Shift from US Dollar for Internal Transactions

In a significant move, the CBI announced that commercial lenders in Iraq must use domestic currency for internal transactions from January 2024. 6 This decision comes amidst a dollar shortage in the country, as tensions between the US and Iraqi governments have led to a growing shortfall.

CBI Governor: We have mechanisms in place to guarantee dollar provision and are closely monitored, 20 SEPT

 INA-  BAGHDAD

Ali Al-Alaq, the governor of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), declared on Wednesday that all financial transfers are auditable, but he also pointed out that the increase in exchange rates is unrelated to the drop in oil prices.  

"The Central Bank provides dollars at the official rate for all commercial and personal channels, travellers, and all types of operations that represent legitimate activities, operations, and requests," Al-Alaq said to the Iraqi News Agency (INA).

He emphasized the need to "focus on the amount of sale carried out by the Central Bank at the official rate and dollar seekers, whether they are traders, importers, individuals or travellers," noting that "any price outside the country is a price that only indicates abnormal operations that try to deviate from the official and legal system and the correct fundamentalist channels." 

"This is a major shift in external transfers where they were previously audited at a later stage and today all transfers are not carried out and are not implemented until after undergoing the audit process," he said, pointing out that "methods have been developed for each channel that secure the provision of dollars on the one hand and a very large amount of control to verify the safety of prior operations before their implementation."

"The decline in the price of oil has nothing to do with the rise in the exchange rate because Iraq has foreign currency reserves, which enables it to defend the exchange rate," he said.

FIREFLY : THE FIRST CURFEW IN IRAQ, FRANKS THINKS THAT IS DUE A NEW EXCHANGE RATE , 20 SEPT

 Frank26 

  [Iraq boots-on-the-ground report]  

 FIREFLY:On November the 20th to the 21st we have a curfew for the very first census in the last 27 years.

  FRANK: ...It looks like Sudani ordered for this new census to occur for your HCL benefits as Iraqi citizens.  It seems to me the only reason he's doing it now is because you have a new exchange rate that they can work with.  If not...there wouldn't be a new census...as they determine the fair amount everyone is supposed to get.  This new census IMO screens that there is a new exchange rate...

FIREFLY: ALAQ SAD THAT AT THE END OF THIS YEAR THEY WILL IMPLEMENT THE INITIAL PLAN TO COMPLETE THE REFORMS FOR THE BANKING SYSTEM, 18 SEPT

Frank26 

 [Iraq boots-on-the-ground report]   

FIREFLY:Alaq is on TV and he's singing like a bird with information.  

He's talking to us an awful lot every day about what they're going to do with this reform.  He gives speech about how much money is in the digital system already.  It's growing.  He said at the end of this year we will implement the initial plan to complete the reforms for the banking system... 

FRANK:  The digital information is one of the main key parts of the monetary reform.  It will allow your money to float freely not only inside of your country but outside...You are going to be internationally recognized.  This is extremely exciting.

https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/09/firefly-alaq-sad-that-at-end-of-this.html

Iraq's Central Bank Tightens Dollar Supervision!