The economic expert, Abdul Rahman Al-Sheikhli, said that the development path will pass through 12 Iraqi governorates and will have great investment opportunities.
“The development road will move Iraq from the regional situation to the global situation in terms of trade, as it will pass through 12 Iraqi governorates and will have great investment opportunities,” Al-Sheikhli said. He added that “the development path project will provide Iraq with great immeral and international relations, and will attract the Iraqi workforce and optimism about it for good.” Al-Sheikhli continued, “the stability of the security situation reflects the extent of interest in the future and the increase in investment opportunities in the country,” pointing to “the change of the economic system in Iraq since 2005 to the market system, and on this basis, the system must turn from the renty economy to a product.”
Iraq is currently receiving applications from their banking system to transition into the new digital economy. Between 60 to 70 banks have sent in their application to transition into International electronic platforms. This pretty much covers all of their Banks except for a handful.
They're still telling us that this aspect of their banking reforms will take till the end of the year, but we are seeing progress and lots of confidence in their new electronic banking system.
This article goes on to tell us that they are in an accelerated stage and moving forward with intention and purpose.
The hydrocarbon sector in Iraq witnesses a significant milestone as the country finalizes the Hydrocarbon Law (HCL) in 2024, a move aiming to boost the oil and gas industry and attract international investments.
Enhancing Investment and Production
The updated HCL introduces a new framework allowing foreign companies to share in oil output when in partnership with the Iraqi government. This shift from the previous fee-per-barrel contracts to production-sharing agreements and service contracts is expected to create a more investor-friendly environment.
Legal Framework for Oil and Gas Contracts
Iraq also finalizes the fifth-plus and sixth rounds of oil and gas contracts, attracting over 20 companies from around the globe. These contracts yield over 30% profit for participating companies, with Chinese firms and a single Iraqi-Kurdish company securing the deals.
Impact on Kurdistan Region
The Kurdistan Region's oil sector, already impacted by the closure of its main pipeline to Turkey, faces further challenges. The new federal budget law calls for a quota of 400,000 barrels per day (b/d) to be handed over to the federal oil marketer SOMO in exchange for 12.6% of federal funding.
Political and Economic Ramifications
The new HCL and budget law have political and economic implications for Iraq's social and political stability. Successful implementation could help calm violence and reflect a spirit of compromise, while failure could have negative repercussions.
Enhanced Table: Key Provisions of the Hydrocarbon Law
Recent developments in Iraq suggest potential changes to the Iraqi Dinar exchange rate, with optimism for upcoming currency exchanges and finalized salary agreements.
Highlights
💼 Significant meeting between Mbal and Baghdad finalizes the HCL hydrocarbon law.
💰 Salaries across regions to be equal, expected payments on Sunday.
📈 Potential currency exchange appointments may begin after market closes Friday.
📊 Analysts debate realistic IQD valuation; even a shift to 10 cents per IQD would be positive.
🏦 Major cross transactions in Iraqi banking sector show active market engagement.
📅 Iraqi banks announce dividend distributions for fiscal year 2023.
🔝 High contract rate for Iraqi Dinar linked to oil prices, favorable for holders.
Key Insights
📜 The finalization of the HCL hydrocarbon law is a crucial step for Iraq’s economic stability, indicating progress in governance and resource management.
🎉 Equal salary distribution across regions could enhance social equity and boost consumer confidence, fostering economic growth.
🔄 Anticipated currency exchange appointments signify a shift towards a more active and potentially profitable exchange market for the Iraqi Dinar.
💵 While some analysts suggest a more conservative valuation, any increase in the Dinar’s worth could yield significant returns for investors.
🏦 The volume of cross transactions in the banking sector indicates a robust economic activity, reflecting investor confidence and market liquidity.
📈 Dividend distributions from banks illustrate a positive financial outlook and provide incentives for local and foreign investments in the Iraqi economy.
📊 The connection between the contract rate and oil prices suggests that fluctuations in global oil markets will directly impact the value of the Iraqi Dinar, benefiting currency holders.
Iraqi Central Bank's Strategic Shift: Direct Relations with Correspondent Banks
In a pivotal move, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has embarked on a transformative phase, transitioning from its current electronic platform for foreign transfers to direct banking relationships with international correspondent banks. This strategic shift, set to be implemented by the end of 2024, aims to enhance the stability, transparency, and efficiency of Iraq's foreign trade financing.
Strengthening Financial Reforms
The CBI's high-level delegation visit to the United States, from August 26 to 29, 2024, played a crucial role in this development. The delegation, led by Governor Ali Mohsen Al-Alaq, held extensive meetings in New York with key financial institutions. These included discussions with the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve, Visa, Mastercard, MoneyGram, Citi Bank, JP Morgan, and major auditing firms such as KPMG, Ernst & Young, K2i, and Oliver Wyman.
Enhancing Transparency and Compliance
The meetings highlighted the CBI's advancements in monitoring foreign transfers and cash sales of U.S. dollars, aligning with international standards. These efforts have significantly improved transparency in foreign trade financing and fortified defenses against money laundering, terrorism financing, and other financial crimes.
Transition to Direct Relations
The transition to direct banking relationships is a crucial step towards centralizing oversight and regulation, aligning Iraq with global banking standards. Governor Al-Alaq confirmed that transfers through correspondent banks already accounted for 60% of the total (outside the CBI's electronic platform) with a realization rate surpassing 95%.
Phased Approach and Currency Diversification
This initiative is part of a phased effort to open direct communication channels for Iraqi banks with their foreign counterparts in correspondence and trade exchanges. The ongoing process will facilitate transfer channels in various currencies, including the Emirati Dirham, Turkish Lira, Indian Rupee, and Euro.
Impact on Exchange Rates and Financial System
The new system is expected to contribute to a more stable exchange rate and a more robust financial system. It offers comprehensive risk protection for all transaction parties and aligns with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing laws.
Compliance Rules and Financial Reputation
The Iraqi banking sector's commitment to international compliance rules further enhances Iraq's financial position globally. The measures implemented by the CBI have received international praise from entities such as the US State Department and the International Monetary Fund.
Dynamic Financial Landscape
The CBI's Governor acknowledges the ongoing challenges but emphasizes that the financial situation in Iraq is progressing as planned. High coordination between the CBI, the Prime Minister, and the Ministry of Finance ensures financial stability and sustainability.
Reorganization of External Transfers
A major transformation is underway in reorganizing foreign trade management to achieve transparency and multiple goals simultaneously. This includes ensuring the accuracy of external transfer operations and verifying the source and final recipient.
Visualizing the Transition
To illustrate the significant shift in Iraq's financial operations and the reorganization of external transfers, a flowchart can be used to depict the flow of transactions from the current system to the direct banking relationship model.
Economic expert Abdul Karim Al-Issawi said: “Today, in fact, the Central Bank of Iraq has already moved to the stage of direct relations with correspondent banks, and it is in the experiment stage while monitoring the changes that occur in all the process for the purpose of fortifying the transformation.
Al-Issawi told Mawazen News: The platform was aimed at enhancing transparency and ensuring compliance with international laws, especially with regard to combating money laundering and terrorist financing.
He pointed out that:
**Potential benefits: 1. *Facilitating transfers*: Direct relationships may make transfers faster and more flexible. 2. *Reduce remittance costs*: Relying on a platform may require additional costs that may be retreated with the new system. 3. *Enhancing international confidence*: If these relations are well managed, it may help boost the confidence of the international community in the Iraqi banking system.
As for the potential challenges: “ 1. Compliance risks: Easing controls can increase the risk of money laundering and terrorist financing, which could damage Iraq’s reputation internationally. 2. Complexity of banking operations: Some banks may face difficulties in managing complex international relations directly without mediation from the central bank. 3. Impact on monetary policy: The central bank may lose some control over external money flows, which may affect monetary policy.
It is important that this transition (if it takes place) takes place gradually and deliberately, while ensuring that strong control mechanisms are in place to ensure that the Iraqi banking system is not exploited for illicit purposes. The final decision will require a balance of benefits and risks, and will certainly have a significant impact on the Iraqi economy and international relations.
The economist stated that the Central Bank of Iraq is negotiating with the US Federal Reserve regarding the termination of the electronic platform for foreign transfers and replacing it with direct banking relations between Iraqi banks.