“I finally found a bond person NOT under an NDA. A really big bond deal. I did a little poking and was informed there is a final bond contract getting paid on the 18th. I find this interesting because it appears that starting on the 18th they are not making them sign an NDA on bond deals. I did a quick search and found another bond holder with an appointment just after the 18th….none of those require an NDA. To me this is huge good news and means they plan on having most bonds done by the 18th because then it won’t matter about the secrecy. ----
MarkZ
[via PDK]
The key piece of news this morning is I finally found a bond person NOT under an NDA. A really big bond deal…I did a little poking and was informed there is a final bond contract getting paid on the 18th...it appears that starting on the 18th they are not making them sign an NDA on bond deals.
What could this possibly mean?
To me this is huge good news. To me this means they plan on having most bonds done by the 18th. Because then it won’t matter about the secrecy...Bonds and Currencies are connected.The plan was to do historic bonds…then a revalue (RV) then a reset…So I am closely watching the next 4 days…
Remember though…no one knows the exact timing...Think about it. Today is the 14th. If suddenly they don’t need NDA’s in 4 days…then to me we should go before that…I think this is huge…I am very excited with this news….
Question: ...are the redemption centers working the weekend?
MarkZ: My banking crew have a “heightened alert“ for this weekend. I am hoping this means something, but we have seen this before. So stay hopeful but calm...The anticipation is palatable…all around the world…people know something is about to happen. We can feel it.
Iraq's Financial Landscape: External Loans and Repayments in 2024
Iraq has indeed maintained a cautious approach to external borrowing, resulting in a relatively low level of external debt compared to its repayment obligations [1]. This fiscal discipline has been a strategic choice, influenced by the country's historical debt burden and a desire to avoid undue financial constraints [3].
Fiscal Policy and Economic Recovery
The Iraqi government's fiscal policy in 2024 has been centered around a three-year budget, the first of its kind [1]. This budget, marked by a significant fiscal expansion, played a crucial role in the country's economic recovery following a contraction in 2022 [1]. The budgetary expansion supported a robust non-oil sector, which was essential in stabilizing the economy [1]. Additionally, domestic inflation declined to 4percent by the end of 2023, partly due to lower international food prices and the normalization in trade finance [1].
Oil Dependency and Fiscal Expansion Risks
Despite these positive developments, Iraq's fiscal and external balances have been strained due to the large fiscal expansion and lower oil prices [1]. The continued reliance on oil revenues, which account for nearly 96% of total income, has limited the government's ability to diversify the economy and address high poverty rates [3].
The fiscal expansion, while boosting growth in 2024, has also led to a deterioration of the fiscal and external accounts, increasing Iraq's vulnerability to oil price fluctuations [1].
Debt Sustainability and Economic Diversification
To address these challenges, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has emphasized the need for sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms that promote fiscal and debt sustainability [1]. Directors at the IMF underscored the importance of economic diversification and the advancement of a private sector-led growth model to secure Iraq's financial stability and promote inclusive economic growth [1].
Budgeting and Investment Strategies
In an effort to stimulate the economy and diversify income sources, Iraq has embarked on ambitious investment projects in the oil and gas sector [2]. A trilateral investment agreement worth USD 27 billion over 25 years was signed in July 2024, aimed at increasing oil production and improving the country's electricity supply [2]. This strategic move is expected to reduce Iraq's import bill and contribute to the gradual increase in oil production as OPEC+ quotas are phased out between September 2024 and December 2025 [2].
Challenges and Outlook
Despite these initiatives, Iraq faces significant challenges. The ongoing fiscal expansion and high dependence on volatile oil prices pose downside risks to the economy [1]. Moreover, the risk of medium-term sovereign debt stress is high, and external stability risks could emerge if policy adjustments are not made [1]. The government's ability to manage these risks will be critical for Iraq's long-term economic health [1].
In conclusion, Iraq's approach to external loans and repayments in 2024 is characterized by a careful balance between fiscal expansion and debt management. The country's fiscal policy and investment strategies aim to diversify the economy and address structural vulnerabilities, while the ongoing challenges related to oil dependency and fiscal imbalances require vigilant policy adjustments.
Al-Sudani's Advisor: The Government's Internal Debt Decreased By Two Trillion Dinars
Economy: September 13 Information/Baghdad… The Prime Minister’s Advisor for Economic Affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, stated that the government’s internal debt has decreased by two trillion Iraqi dinars.
Mazhar Muhammad Salih said, “Iraq is not among the countries with external debt at the present time,” indicating that “the external public debt is less than 10 billion dollars, and this will be paid over the course of time between now and 2028.”
He explained that “there are allocations in the general budget to pay off debts, and this is what has made Iraq always in the credit rating and creditworthiness at level B, and it is stable like many countries such as Jordan, Egypt, Pakistan and others.
”
Mazhar Muhammad Salih noted that “this debt has decreased, because Iraq has not borrowed and its external loans are few compared to its many repayments, especially during the past ten years on a regular basis.” LINK
“Guys, I’ve just been told that the RV has started as Iraq is officially live on the big screen. Bytomorrow Mon. 16 Sept.we should have Tiers starting to receive payment, which is liquid money. Waiting to hear more later on.
I’m very certain that notification should comeany day now. Like I was told, September is the golden month. …I’m absolutely excited. Some people have been waiting for this for thirty years.
We were told that this has started. It is liquid money. It is my opinion that notifications should be coming out today
Sun. 15 Sept, or tomorrow Mon. 16 Sept.at the latest.
Take care. Have a beautiful day.” …Wolverine
Later Sat. 14 Sept. 2024 Wolverine
“All banks have paid the transactions released yesterday in their accounts. Now they just need to send the notifications to those involved.
Central Bank of Iraq's Decision to Halt Currency Auctions
In a significant move aimed at strengthening the Iraqi dinar and curbing illicit financial flows, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has announced plans to stop the daily currency auctions. The decision, expected to take effect by the end of 2024, marks a shift in Iraq's financial policy to combat corruption and financial crimes related to currency exchange.
Background on Currency Auctions
Historically, the CBI has conducted daily currency auctions to sell U.S. dollars to private banks and companies, converting oil revenues into Iraqi dinars. This mechanism has been central to Iraq's foreign exchange market, but it has also been a source of concern due to potential misuse and illicit cash flows, particularly to neighboring Iran.
The Decision to Halt Auctions
The CBI's decision to halt the currency auctions is driven by a commitment to financial reform and integration into the global economy.
By terminating the electronic auction platform for international financial transfers, the CBI aims to prevent dollar leakage and money laundering while maintaining the stability of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies.
Impact on the Iraqi Economy
The cessation of the currency auctions is expected to have far-reaching effects on Iraq's economy. On one hand, it could lead to a reduction in the availability of Iraqi dinars, affecting the government's ability to pay public sector salaries and meet other financial obligations. On the other hand, the move is anticipated to strengthen the dinar by reducing uncontrolled dollar outflows and enhancing the integrity of Iraq's financial system.
Future of Financial Transactions in Iraq
Following the closure of the currency auction window, Iraqi banks will be required to establish correspondent relationships with foreign banks for conducting international transactions.
This transition to direct commercial banking transactions is part of a broader effort to reform Iraq's financial and banking sectors.
Conclusion
The Central Bank of Iraq's decision to stop the currency auctions by the end of 2024 is a bold step toward financial reform and economic stability. While the move may present short-term challenges, it is anticipated to have positive long-term effects on the Iraqi dinar and the country's financial integrity.