DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: ABOUT THE IMF'S $3.22 OIL VALUATION, 5 SEPT

 Iraq's Economic Strategies and the $3.22 Oil Valuation in 2024

Iraq, one of the most oil-dependent countries globally, has historically based its economy heavily on oil revenues, which have accounted for over 99% of exports, 85% of the government's budget, and 42% of gross domestic product (GDP) over the last decade. 1 This reliance on oil has exposed the country to macroeconomic volatility. As of January 2021, Iraq's unemployment rate was more than 10 percentage points higher than its pre-COVID-19 level of 12.7 percentage points. 1

The IMF's $3.22 Oil Valuation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) mentioned a $3.22 rate, which indicates a historical valuation of oil in Iraq, highlighting the need for renewed economic strategies. 1 This valuation underscores the urgency for Iraq to diversify its economy beyond oil to secure fiscal and debt sustainability, advance economic diversification, and achieve sustainable, inclusive, and private sector-led growth. 4

Iraq's Economic Outlook in 2024

In 2024, Iraq's economy is expected to continue its recovery, supported by a large fiscal expansion. 4 However, this expansion comes at the cost of further deterioration of fiscal and external accounts, increasing Iraq's vulnerability to oil price fluctuations. 4 Without policy adjustment, the risk of medium-term sovereign debt stress is high, and external stability risks could emerge. 4

Key Downside Risks

Key downside risks include much lower oil prices or the spread of the conflict in Gaza and Israel. 4 These risks could significantly impact Iraq's fiscal and external balances, necessitating a fiscal adjustment to stabilize debt over the medium term while protecting critical social and capital spending. 6

Strategies for Economic Diversification

To foster private job creation and ensure long-term external sustainability, Iraq needs to focus on private sector development and economic diversification. 6This includes containing the outsized public wage bill and mobilizing additional non-oil revenues through policy measures. 6

Conclusion

Iraq's reliance on oil for economic stability is a double-edged sword, offering significant revenues but also exposing the country to macroeconomic volatility. The IMF's mention of a $3.22 rate for oil valuation highlights the need for Iraq to diversify its economy and develop strategies that ensure fiscal and debt sustainability, advance economic diversification, and promote sustainable, inclusive, and private sector-led growth.

DINAR REVALUATION HIGHLIGHTS: "THE IMF DOCUMENT STATES RI RATE AT $3.22" , 5 SEPT

 Summary

Here are the latest updates on the Iraq Dinar’s potential revaluation, banking sector developments, and economic insights.

Highlights

• 📈 IMF Document states RI Rate at $3.22+.
• 🏦 13 banks in Iraq are prepared for currency exchange.
• 💰 Non-oil revenues are increasing in Iraq.
• 📊 Central Bank focusing on digital payments and electronic banking.
• 🌍 Iraq chairs the Group of 77 and China at the UN for the first time.
• 🏗️ Development Road Project expected to boost Iraq’s economy.
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Key Insights

• 📉 The IMF’s mention of a $3.22 rate indicates historical valuation based on oil, highlighting the need for renewed economic strategies.
• 🤝 Collaboration between Iraq’s Central Bank and US financial institutions aims to enhance currency exchange oversight, critical for Dinar revaluation.
• 📊 The rise in non-oil revenues signifies diversification in Iraq’s economy, reducing dependency on oil.
• 💳 Digital banking advancements suggest a modernization of Iraq’s financial system, promoting global trade and investment opportunities.
• 📈 The appointment as chair of the Group of 77 indicates Iraq’s growing influence in international economic discussions.
• 🚀 The Development Road Project could transform Iraq’s economic landscape, creating jobs and attracting foreign investments.
• 🔄 Increased training for currency exchange personnel suggests imminent changes in Iraq’s banking operations and potential Dinar revaluation.

"RATES AT REDEMPTION CENTERS MAY BE HIGHER THAN BANKS" BY MELANIE HINDS, 5 SEPT

 MELANIE HINDS

Summary

She discusses recent developments regarding the Iraqi dinar, emphasizing progress in economic reforms, security measures against money smuggling, and upcoming opportunities for currency exchange.

Highlights

• 📈 Iraqi satellite project discussions with UAE for economic ties.
• 💳 New electronic platform catching money smugglers.
• 🇸🇪 Swiss Embassy reopening in Baghdad boosts international relations.
• 💼 Enhancements in customs and tax revenues from bordering nations.
• 🤝 Focus on bilateral agreements with the US for economic growth.
• 📅 Notifications for tier 4B currency exchanges expected soon.
• 💰 Rates at redemption centers may be higher than banks.

Key Insights

• 🔍  Economic Reforms: Iraq is actively working on banking sector reforms, which are crucial for attracting foreign investments and improving economic stability. This can lead to increased confidence in the dinar.
• ⚖️ Security Measures: The implementation of an electronic platform is a significant step toward combating money smuggling, enhancing the integrity of the financial system in Iraq.
• 🌍 International Relations: The reopening of the Swiss Embassy signifies strengthened diplomatic ties, allowing for better cooperation and investment opportunities in Iraq.
• 💵 Revenue Generation: The focus on customs and tax enhancements reflects Iraq’s strategy to diversify its economy beyond oil dependency, which is vital for sustainable growth.

• ⏳ Upcoming Notifications: The anticipated notifications for tier 4B exchanges signal a potential shift in currency value, encouraging investors to remain vigilant and prepared for upcoming opportunities.

• 🏦 Redemption Centers: The possibility of higher exchange rates at redemption centers than banks indicates strategic planning to incentivize currency holders, emphasizing the importance of choosing the right exchange location.

Boosting Non-Oil Revenues: A Game-Changer for Economic Stability

DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: Enhancing Non-Oil Revenues: A Strategic Focus for the Parliamentary Finance Committee, 5 SEPT

Enhancing Non-Oil Revenues: A Strategic Focus for the Parliamentary Finance Committee

In a significant move to diversify and strengthen the economy, the Parliamentary Finance Committee convened a crucial meeting in September 2024 with the heads of the General Commission for Taxes and the General Authority for Customs. 6 The objective was to explore strategies for enhancing non-oil revenues, a critical step toward reducing economic vulnerability and fostering sustainable growth.

The Urgency for Diversification

Chairman Atwan Al-Atooni emphasized the pressing need for the economy to move beyond its reliance on oil, a dependency that has left the country's financial stability susceptible to global market fluctuations. 6 Highlighting the risks associated with a rentier economy, Al-Atooni underlined the importance of broadening revenue streams to include robust non-oil sectors.

Strategies for Revenue Enhancement

The meeting served as a platform for in-depth discussions on expanding non-oil revenues, with a particular focus on tax and customs reforms. Recognizing the pivotal role of these institutions in revenue generation, the committee aimed to outline joint procedures for maximizing income.  6

The Role of Tax and Customs Authorities

With the Central Bank selling over $200 million daily, the tax and customs authorities were identified as key actors in capitalizing on this financial flow. The committee's decision to meet with these entities underscored the potential for tapping into untapped revenue sources and optimizing existing ones. 6

Ongoing Efforts and Collaboration

Building on previous engagements with the Deputy Prime Minister, the Minister of Finance, the Minister of Electricity, and the Minister of Oil, the committee's continued meetings with ministries and agencies underscore the systematic approach to revenue enhancement. 6 This collaborative effort is crucial for aligning strategies across different sectors and ensuring a comprehensive approach to economic diversification.

In conclusion, the Parliamentary Finance Committee's proactive stance on enhancing non-oil revenues through strategic meetings with key authorities reflects a commitment to economic resilience and diversification. By focusing on tax and customs reforms, the committee is paving the way for a more stable and diversified economy, lessening the impact of global oil market volatility.

Parliamentary Finance Committee Discusses With Heads Of Customs And Tax Authority Enhancing Non-Oil Revenues, 5 SEPT

 Parliamentary Finance Committee Discusses With Heads Of Customs And Tax Authority Enhancing Non-Oil Revenues

Tuesday 03 September 2024 13:36 | Economic Number of readings: 198   Baghdad / NINA / The Parliamentary Finance Committee held a joint meeting today, Tuesday, with the heads of the General Customs and Tax Authority, to discuss enhancing non-oil revenues.

The head of the committee, MP Atwan Al-Atwani, said in a statement to journalists, including the correspondent of the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA /, that "the meeting will study expanding non-oil revenues and discussing the financial situation in light of monetary policy and data on the global oil market."

He added, "The Finance Committee recently met with the Deputy Prime Minister and the Ministers of Finance, Electricity and Oil to discuss the issue of various revenues, including non-oil revenues, and decided that the committee would proceed with holding meetings with the ministries and agencies concerned with those revenues whose obligations were mentioned in the General Budget Law."

He explained, "The Parliamentary Finance Committee decided to meet with the head of the Tax Authority and the head of the Customs Authority to clarify what procedures we will proceed with," indicating that "taxes and customs are important institutions capable of increasing and maximizing non-oil revenues." / End 5    https://ninanews.com/Website/News/Details?key=1151518

IRAQI DINAR UPDATE: A SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS BY PIMPY, 5 SEPT

  IRAQI DINAR UPDATE BY PIMPY

Summary

Iraq’s plans to remove zeros from its currency are currently halted, focusing instead on stabilizing the exchange rate and improving banking regulations.

Highlights

• 🚫 No removal of zeros: The government ruled out removing three zeros from the Iraqi dinar.
• 💵 Currency stability: Emphasis is on stabilizing the exchange rate rather than changing it.
• 🏦 Banking improvements: Iraqi banks are enhancing compliance with international standards.
• 🌍 International relations: Iraq is expanding its network with international correspondent banks.
• 📈 Economic transformation: Achievements in foreign transfers and cash sales regulations are noted.
• 🛡️ Sanctions lifted: Collaboration with Oliver Wyman aims to help banks understand and navigate sanctions.
• 🎵 Same as it ever was: The situation remains consistent in the Iraqi dinar landscape.

Key Insights

• 🚫  No Change in Currency Structure: The Iraqi government has confirmed that removing zeros from the currency is not a priority, indicating a focus on other economic reforms. This decision is crucial to maintaining the current value of the dinar.
• 💵 Stabilizing Exchange Rates: The Central Bank is working towards stabilizing exchange rates without immediate changes. This reflects a cautious approach to avoid market volatility while improving economic conditions.
• 🏦 Banking Sector Enhancement: Efforts to enhance banking compliance and governance are underway, which is vital for restoring investor confidence and facilitating international transactions.
• 🌍 Strengthening International Ties: The expansion of relationships with international correspondent banks signifies Iraq’s commitment to integrating into the global financial system, which can attract foreign investments.
• 📈 Economic Progress: The recognition of Iraq’s improvements in banking regulations and foreign transfer processes indicates positive strides towards a more stable economy and a desire to meet international standards.
• 🛡️ Navigating Sanctions: Engaging with a reputable consulting firm like Oliver Wyman demonstrates Iraq’s proactive approach to mitigating the effects of sanctions while improving its banking structure.
• 🎵 Continuity in Economic Patterns: The phrase “same as it ever was” highlights that while some progress is being made, fundamental challenges in the Iraqi economy persist, necessitating ongoing vigilance and adaptation.