Iraqi PM discusses Kurdistan Region's oil flow resumption, economic impact, 2 JUNE

Iraqi PM discusses Kurdistan Region's oil flow resumption, economic impact

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - In an interview with Anadolu Agency (AA) on May 31, 2024, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani addressed the prospects of resuming oil flow from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRG).

He emphasized the significant economic impact of halting oil exports from the KRG fields.

“The stopping of pumping Iraqi oil extracted from the fields of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRG) is undoubtedly a loss for Iraq, and at least it is a missed benefit that could support development plans in the provinces of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and strengthen the overall Iraqi economy,” al-Sudani stated.

He outlined the efforts made to find acceptable settlements and legal solutions following a thorough legal study. However, he noted that the issue remains tied to legal commitments.

“The Federal Budget Law requires that the cost of producing one barrel of oil in all fields be within the national average production cost, which is about $8 per barrel, according to the Federal Ministry of Oil,” al-Sudani underlined.

He added that the KRG’s Ministry of Natural Resources calculates the production cost at about $26 per barrel under the contracts signed with operating oil companies.

“We have proposed either to amend the budget law or to amend the agreements and contracts with these companies. From this perspective, the companies stopped production, not because of a ban from the federal government, but waiting for a solution,” he explained.

Al-Sudani noted that while the companies refused to amend the contracts, the regional government agreed.

“For these reasons, more work is needed to find a legal solution that prioritizes ensuring the rights of Iraq and its people to their wealth,” he added.

This comes at a time when the Federal Ministry of Oil issued a statement, in which it called on the Ministry of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan Region and the oil companies operating in the region to hold a meeting as soon as possible, to agree to accelerate the restoration of oil production and resume its export through the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

As of March 25, 2023, crude oil exports from Kurdistan fields and Kirkuk Governorate to Turkey via the Turkish port of Ceyhan were halted.

This came after the International Arbitration Tribunal in Paris ruled that these exports were illegal, following a lawsuit filed by the federal government against Turkey in the International Court of Arbitration in Paris in 2014.

The lawsuit was due to Turkey allowing Kurdistan’s oil to flow into its territory and export it without Baghdad’s approval.

According to an agreement concluded between Baghdad and Ankara in 2010, the Iraqi Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) is the only entity authorized to export, market, and sell Iraqi oil in global markets.

Kurdistan was exporting 450,000 barrels daily to Turkey to secure the salaries of its employees and its financial revenues, due to the absence of an oil and gas law regulating the management of oil wealth in Iraq.

On April 4, 2023, Erbil and Baghdad reached a temporary agreement until the Iraqi Parliament approved the oil and gas law.

This agreement stipulated that the Kurdistan government would hand over 400,000 barrels per day to SOMO, form a four-part joint committee to supervise the sale of oil in global markets, open an independent account with the Central Bank to deposit financial revenues, and appoint a representative from the regional government to the position of assistant general manager of SOMO.

The ongoing negotiations and legal considerations are part of a broader effort to stabilize Iraq’s economy and ensure equitable distribution of resources across all regions.

"RV UPDATE" BY MARKZ, 2 JUNE

  MarkZ  

 [via PDK]  I expected it to be pretty quiet this weekend. But folks are geared up for early next week. I have been told by a number of them that are ready and positioned.

[via PDK]   There was a real good article...on Vietnam joining BRICS… ”High Level Talks indicate Vietnam poised to join BRICS... Great News for VND”  This is great news as it shows their growing strength and manufacturing dominance of Vietnam. And they are pushing for their currency to be worth more as they join this asset backed group of BRICS….

Question:  You mentioned your gut thinks the RV could happen between June 2 and 9th… Is that still valid? 

  MarkZ:  Based on what I am hearing from the bond side, government side and group side…To me it’s what makes the most sense.  But, I am not ruling out any moment, because it’s a strong possibility...But its highly possible it happens this weekend...I was once told the optimum time would be on a Saturday night to Sunday morning.

“Futures slide as bond yields spike to a 3 week high”  We are watching an inverted bond market. We are watching the short term bonds out bid and out earn the long term bonds. I was always told this is key to the reset and we are watching it live. This bond market is in shambles. I was always told to watch for this just before the reset…and to watch for the HCL law to be passed in Iraq. We are now watching them as we approach the finish line. 

This is pure gold this morning…  Article:  “US Ambassador praises Iraq’s official adoption of E-Payment system”  This particular US ambassador is well known as the “Ambassador of re-valuations”  She usually gets sent to whatever country whose value is about to change. She is there in Iraq right now.

 It certainly is a “push” ...They are talking about it openly in the Iraqi news. …They are blatant on this one  “The impending rate change”.  They are telling us what they are doing... Articles in Iraq say clearly that the dinar is going to be worth more than the US dollar. 

[via PDK] 

 did hear some interesting things from military contacts. One in particular kinda surprised me overnight...don’t panic because they do their best to cloud the timing...He said “Do not worry- it will be before July 4th.” We will have it all before July 4th. Actually a couple military contacts gave me that same time frame. I still have great hopes for sooner...it is interesting they have plans to have it completed by July 4th…For all we know it could happen tomorrow…nobody knows the timing.

 Out of Iraq – hearing we are supposed to be getting news on Sunday that has to do with the budget but since they have already passed it- does this mean we are getting a rate? Or which projects were executed or started?  I do not know.

   I am seeing rates of somewhere between $3.81 to $3.91 from a number of contractors working in Iraq. They are working on infrastructure - everything from hospitals to power grid to roads etc... And I am still thinking it will be $2 something on the dong. I hope I’m wrong and my contacts are right and it’s closer to the $3 mark.

https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/05/rv-update-by-markz-27-may.html

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PM Al-Sudani inaugurates Digital Data Center, Traffic Signs and License Plates Manufacturing Plant, 2 JUNE

PM Al-Sudani inaugurates Digital Data Center, Traffic Signs and License Plates Manufacturing Plant

Shafaq News / Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani inaugurated, on Saturday, the Digital Data Center at the Ministry of Interior and the Traffic Signs and License Plates Manufacturing Plant in central Baghdad. 

The PM’s media office reported that the event was attended by the Ministers of Interior, Planning, Communications, Higher Education, Labor and Social Affairs, the Secretary-General of the Council of Ministers, the Governor of the Central Bank, and several government and security officials.

In his speech during the inauguration, Prime Minister Al-Sudani commended the efforts of the Ministry of Interior staff and the implementing Iraqi company. 

“He highlighted the importance of the Digital Data Center in data preservation and exchange, noting the ministry's significant progress in providing electronic services to citizens, starting with e-passport and e-visa programs, and now extending to data collection.”

Prime Minister Al-Sudani emphasized that the Ministry of Interior, while primarily a security entity, also plays a critical service role and directly interacts with citizens. 

He underscored the importance of “data sharing between departments and institutions,” stating that “access to data and information will enhance the Ministry of Interior's capability in combating crime.”

The Digital Data Center aligns with the Prime Minister's directives to ensure data security, promote data sharing, and rely on automation and digital transformation in service delivery, as per the media office. “It is part of the e-passport, e-visa, and other electronic portales projects funded by the Police Martyrs Fund.”

“The center will serve the Ministry of Interior and all its departments, including systems for electronic passports, e-visas, national ID cards, vehicle registration, driving licenses, criminal records, and other directorates. It can also support other ministries and the private sector in data hosting or backup, benefiting the public interest.”

The center houses 200 digital data cabinets and is designed for future expansion over the next 20 years. Built to high specifications, it can operate independently of national electricity for up to 30 days, as reported by the Prime Minister’s media office.

Additionally, Al-Sudani inaugurated a traffic sign manufacturing plant that will meet high standards, allowing vehicle owners to drive abroad.

Al-Sudani emphasized the significance of this project in providing a permanent solution to the longstanding issue of traffic signs. 

“The first production line was installed in March and is now operational. The investing company is committed to delivering additional production lines in the near future to produce square signs and motorcycle plates. A dedicated team from the Directorate of Traffic/Directorate of Road Engineering and Traffic Signs underwent training at the plant on how to operate the new equipment.”

According to the media office, “Each production line can produce approximately 2,000 plates per hour, amounting to 16,000 plates during a single work shift, with the potential for increased output by extending working hours based on the Directorate of Traffic's needs. The plant is capable of producing three types of plates in various sizes according to the directorate's requirements: short plates, long plates, and motorcycle plates.”

"RV UPDATE" BY MILITIAMAN, 2 JUNE

  Militia Man 

 The House of Representatives will vote next Monday on the budge schedules...We've been waiting for it... Is it important?  Is it not important? 

 Obviously it's a focus.   Article Quote: "Mustafa ... announced the House of Representatives intends to vote on the financial budget tables for the year of 2024...It will be held at 3:00 in the afternoon on Monday." 

 I don't think anybody's going to be able to prove me wrong, you drop the three zeros, the exchange rate changes from 1 USD to 1.32 just like al-Sudani says.  Do the math it comes out to .76, apply the real effective exchange rate and that's where the show starts big time... .76 is $0.76 - it's slightly less than the dollar.  

That's value.  It's not .0007 something.  It's value.  That's what they're talking about - Bringing value to the currency.  That's what Al-Alaq is there for.

  Article quote: "If we assume the Central Bank issues a new currency this will not affect the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar." 

 This guy is not wrong...It won't in my view.  The exchange rate will affect the new small denominations though...If they change the value of the exchange rate by dropping the three zeros, therefor the new denominations will be affected by it, which will be value.  It's pretty simple.

 If you raise the value of the currency it's going to have a ripple effect...Instead of being a pebble...or a brick in the pond this might be a boulder.  There's going to be some waves.  The World Bank, IMF, US Fed, US Treasury...Bank of International Settlements, everybody's going to need to know what you're going to do and when you're going to do it and pretty close. 

 They're not going to be broadcasting it like everybody thinks, 'What's the date and what's the rate?'  That's not how it works.  But we study it close enough to where...we can see it can't be far off...

If they're going to have liquidity and they don't have it now it's going to require new small category denominations to be in circulation.  Just as al-Alaq's project to delete the zeros would require new denominations.   Did they do that in 2018 and have them in storage?  I believe they did...

They increased that gold supply by about 40 tons...Their currency reserves are around $110 billion.  They have a massive amount of wealth.  They have the ability to support their imports for about 16 months they say, which is about 5x what they need.  That's important.  They don't want to reduce those.  They'd like to keep them on hand...Iraq has a good foundation for Alaq to do what he's supposed to do and it'll only get better if he does.

If they change the value of their currency they're going to have more surpluses...The oil price is about $70 in the 2023 budget.  That hasn't changed for '24 or '25 because that's a tripartite budget.  They got a surplus.  Oil is somewhere around $80.  It's been as high as $91ish.  The expectations of oil is to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $80/$90 and they even talk about $100/barrel...Iraq is going to be sitting pretty good...They have phosphates...sulfur...natural gas...Those non-oil revenue streams...taxes and tariffs are going to come online...Iraq has a good foundation for Alaq to do what he's supposed to do.

 Iraq is moving forward.  They've got huge reserves...increased their gold, they're going to have the private sector, their stock exchange is going to be one to reckon with.  It's an emerging market and a lot of money is going to be start flowing...

If they go on the Forex system it's going to be international.  It's going to be fast and furious. 

 Could they do something within the county prior to that?  

Sure, why not, educate the citizens, do what they got to do...

 Question:  People want to know if they can drag this out until next year? 

 Militia Man: We don’t know the timing. But, I don’t think we are even close to go that long. There is way too much going on in the world and this is not only about Iraq. Remember all boats rise with the tide...I believe Iraq is ready to go with the rest of the world. Along with other countries like the Vietnamese dong. 

Are they going to change the value of their currency...? 

 I'm pretty sure they are going to need to to pay for all these [reconstruction] objects...rebar, the cement - all that stuff is expensive at 1310.  It's not so expensive if it's back at a 'previous era'....If they have the true value, their real effective exchange rate, it's going to be far cheaper...

https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/05/rv-update-by-militiaman-25-may.htm

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Inauguration of first airline route between Najaf and Dammam, Saudi Arabia, 2 JUNE

 Inauguration of first airline route between Najaf and Dammam, Saudi Arabia

Shafaq News/ The first official airline route between Najaf and Dammam, Saudi Arabia, was inaugurated on Saturday.

According to Shafaq News Agency correspondent, the Saudi Ambassador, Abdul Aziz Al-Shammari, was on the flight that arrived this morning from Dammam to Najaf International Airport.

The Governor of Najaf, who welcomed the Saudi Ambassador, emphasized the importance of expanding air services between Iraq and Saudi Arabia to enhance economic and tourism ties.