Friday, May 17, 2024
"RV UPDATE" BY MARKZ, 18 MAY
MarkZ
[via PDK]
On the banking side there are big expectations for this weekend. Many people saying this. And expecting a big announcement out of Iraq this Sunday. Hopefully this is it. We will find out Sunday or Monday.
Article: “Russia endorses Vietnams future participation in BRICS: Russian ambassador”Mark Z on 5.16.24
Member: Good Morning Everyone! Have a Terrific Thursday!
MZ: Are you guys ready- are you paying attention and waiting for big announcements or “extraordinary plans” to be revealed in Iraq on Sunday- according to Sudani ?
Member: Not expecting so I can be pleasantly surprised….
Member….MilitiaMan also mentioned this last night.
MZ: MM had a good solid video last night….Hope you all listen…… He talks about “Extraordinary Plans” to be announced –according to Al-Sudani. On Sunday. Now this has something to do with the budget. Finishing the 2024 budget.
MZ: I tell you what- announcing a different rate would sure fix all of those problems including the budget
MZ: We are all praying this means something big. Lots of progress internationally and MM also talks about the impending ascension to the WTO.
Member: it seems that sudani is under enormous pressure to pull the trigger.. but I'm sure he's making sure that there's no hiccups".
MZ: I continue to hear great things from banks as they continue to train. They say it means we are close but I don’t know what that means timewise
Member: Close is one of those words I never want to hear again after the RV. Close does not seem to mean what we used to think it meant.
MZ: “Russia endorses Vietnams future participation in BRICS: Russian ambassador” This is the world doing the fundamentals it takes to change their currencies. We are seeing a seismic shift from fiat back to commodities. This is a big piece of news. And Vietnam is pushing toward that end…like Iraq and it’s with or without the US. .
Member: Putin said 80% of trade between Russia and china is traded outside the USD
Member: Hey if Vietnam wants to go now I won't stop them
Member: Since Vietnam is doing so well financially on their own, I wonder if its possible that vnd could go higher than 50% of iqd?
Member: has there been a change in how they'll send notifications for redemption center appointments?
Member: I firmly believe we will not really know until it happens. No sense worrying about something we have no control of.
Member: Will the VND go at the same time as the IQD?
MZ: We still expect them to go at the same time.
Member: Could we be in the banks next week?
MZ: If we get a rate on Sunday- IMO we could be in the banks next week.
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/05/q-with-markz-17-may.html
Political agreement reached for power-sharing in Kirkuk, 17 MAY
Political agreement reached for power-sharing in Kirkuk
Shafaq News / On Friday, politician Mohammad Nasir disclosed an "initial agreement" signed between the Arab bloc and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) to form a government and provincial council in Kirkuk.
Nasir clarified that "the preliminary agreement signed between the Arab bloc and the PUK stipulates power-sharing, where the governorship of Kirkuk will be held by the Kurdish component (PUK) for the first two years, while the presidency of the provincial council will be allocated to the Arab share for two years. The technical deputy governor will be Arab, and the administrative deputy will be Turkmen."
He continued, "There will be five assistant governors: two for Arabs, one each for Kurds, Turkmen, and Christians, with advisors to the governor split similarly."
In response, Kirkuk Provincial Council member from the PUK Parwin Fatih affirmed that "there is an agreement among the winning political blocs in the Kirkuk Provincial Council to share power. This agreement is linked to the size of the electoral quota and the entitlement of the blocs to key positions in Kirkuk."
Fatih told Shafaq News Agency that "the political agreement among the winning blocs in the Kirkuk Provincial Council involves Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmen, and is linked to the electoral quota and the entitlement of the blocs to important positions in Kirkuk."
She pointed out that "the delay in forming the local government and the failure to convene the council is due to power-sharing, including who will hold the positions of governor and council president. This is also tied to the fact that the blocs have half of the seats in the provincial council, totaling seven seats, giving them the right to key positions."
Fatih added, "Political agreements in Baghdad are reflected in resolving the Kirkuk issue. If we witness tomorrow's vote for the candidate for the Speaker of the Council of Representatives, we will see a breakthrough in Kirkuk and a speed in its formation."
Responding to a question about the agreement between the PUK and Arab factions in Kirkuk to share power, Fatih stated "The agreements exist, and the PUK believes in partnership and power-sharing in Kirkuk, but according to electoral entitlements."
For over five months, winning blocs in the Kirkuk Provincial Council have failed to agree on a joint proposal to form the local government, amid each insisting on assuming the position of governor. Discussions about rotating the governor's position among Kurdish, Arab, and Turkmen blocs remain unresolved, awaiting a third unspecified date set by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani.
On February 21 2024, the Prime Minister presided over a meeting attended by all winning blocs, setting a deadline until March 3rd to prepare proposals for forming a new provincial administration and a joint local government.
Dozens of senior administrative positions in Kirkuk are expected to be redistributed among its components, most of which are currently acting, including the Council Chairman and his deputy, the governor and his deputies, the mayors of four districts, and directors of 16 districts, in addition to several public directors.
Kirkuk held its first elections since 2005 on December 18, 2023. Kurds won seven seats, divided into five seats for the PUK and two seats for the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), while the quota (Babylon) won one seat, totaling eight seats. Conversely, Arabs won six seats, distributed as follows: three seats for the Arab Alliance, two for the Leadership Alliance, and one for the Orouba Alliance, while the Unified Turkmen Front won two seats.
The electoral landscape highlights the equality achieved in the number of seats between Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmen (8-8), preventing any party from forming a local government.
SUMMARY OF BRUCE CALL BY GEM FINCH, 17 MAY
Gem Finch, [17/05/2024 12:39 PM]
This came from Bond Master with WF so in Geneva is where this came from and according to the Bond PM with a regular contact and we have information coming to us they are going to try and release this T3 and T4A &B the idea is going to get the GREEN Light Tonight
- theoretically before midnight. I Bruce will know IF they do that about Midnight and Bruce is looking at this another green light and I’m using Faith here - because I don’t actually know – but they are saying they are going to TRY and do this and I hope this is going to be Good for all of US
– the one thing we really want are the Toll FREE numbers and that’s ALL WE NEED and we’ve waited a long time – 20 years for Bruce 2005 and he wasn’t late to the party. The Bottom line we are all anticipating something BIG - the RR and other payment our intel is saying that people on the 4th Wednesday would get a bump and it’s BIG and what we talked about and it should happen Saturday or Wednesday the 22nd,
I think those that have already been paid might get another payment, I don’t have the particulars on that – so the 5th Wednesday is the 29th May and we are hearing it would occur on or around the 29th. So now for us with RR this is supposed to come in when we go in for our exchanges and we would get a lump sum added to our exchange totals. It will just be added to the totals, but we really want to know just what that total is -
so for those over 62 not sure how you will get it but it should be at the end of this month and we’ll see how that works out and in this month still and also of course MAYBE OUR RV LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE GREEN LIGHT IS GIVEN AND then we can call and make our exchange appointments. So that’s how close I believe we are and we HAVE NEVER BEEN WHERE WE ARE NOW HERE AT THIS TIME AND THINGS ARE DEFINITELY HAPPENING BEHIND THE SCENES SO Bruce is saying he’s going to pray out the call –< /span>
this is pretty good information coming in for EVERYTHING TO BE RELEASED TONIGHT And of course Bruce now talking about those programmes of Sue and all the new classes she’s hoping to have next week - and always thanking Sue and Bob and GCK and Pastor Scott and Jeannie and Larry and all the faithful listeners from around the world.
Then without fail praying out the call. So please join in with Bruce in praying out the call and please keep praying because ALL OUR PRAYERS ARE NEEDED KNOW MORE THAN EVER AND EVERY PRAYER IS HEARD AND POWERFUL. My deepest Love goes out to ALL of YOU. But of course this really is NOW I think we ALL believe is the time for US and OUR World to Move ON. Gem.
Iraqi Dinar: navigating currency volatility and black market activity, 17 MAY
Iraqi Dinar: navigating currency volatility and black market activity
Shafaq News/ The Iraqi dinar has been plagued by persistent exchange rate volatility in recent years. This instability is characterized by sharp appreciations of the US dollar followed by sluggish depreciation, creating uncertainty for businesses and consumers.
Further complicating matters is a significant discrepancy between the official exchange rate set by the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) and the rate prevailing in the parallel or black market. Many exchange shops blatantly disregard CBI directives, contributing to a wider "spread" between the official and market rates.
Some economists propose a bold strategy to address these twin challenges—volatility and the black market premium—by introducing currency "flotation." This would essentially remove the CBI's peg to the dollar, allowing the dinar's exchange rate to be determined by market forces. While initial depreciation can be painful in the short term, proponents argue that establishing greater exchange rate stability will have long-term benefits.
As of mid-May, the CBI sets the official cash selling rate at 1,305 dinars per dollar, while the rate for international remittances is slightly higher at 1,310 dinars. Local media reports suggest the black market rate hovers around 1,450 dinars per dollar, with historical highs reaching 1,600 dinars.
Iraqi authorities have implemented a series of control measures in response to these issues. These include restrictions on foreign exchange transactions, a mandate for all domestic commercial transactions to be conducted in dinars, and stricter scrutiny of international remittances. However, the effectiveness of these controls remains to be determined.
Some Iraqi economic analysts, fearing excessive volatility, express reservations about full-fledged dinar flotation. Others propose a more nuanced approach, advocating for a "managed float" system that allows for some degree of market flexibility while maintaining a degree of CBI control.
Is Currency Floating A Viable Option For The Iraqi Economy?
Mudher Saleh, the Prime Minister's Financial Advisor, believes that currency floating could be better suited for the Iraqi economy, primarily due to its reliance on oil exports and the dominance of foreign currency reserves. In an interview with al-Hurra TV, he explained that "the economic vision of floating the Iraqi dinar to eliminate the gap between the official and parallel rates might be feasible in an economy where the free market alone dictates the movement of the balance of payments, not in an economy dominated by the rentier government sector, which generates foreign currency reserves."
Saleh explained that the CBI is the only party that can manage the supply and demand for foreign currency in the domestic market. Calls for floating essentially imply "adopting the exchange rate prevailing in the parallel market to achieve the goal of stability and balance in the official exchange rate itself at a new exchange rate point reached by the market at the end of the hypothetical floating policy and a return to stability again."
Under a floating scenario, the CBI would relinquish its position as the primary provider of foreign currency, ceding control to free market forces with limited foreign currency holdings. Saleh warned that these forces carry "an uncontrolled package of inflationary expectations, referred to in economic literature as 'inflationary expectations-generating forces,'" granting dominance to a "limited number of speculators" who possess finite amounts of foreign currency, facing an "open demand for foreign currency from the market" that exceeds supply by "more than ten times, at least in our estimation."
Saleh described this policy as "uncontrolled," as the absence of a central government supply of foreign currency would prevent the establishment of any exchange rate equilibrium that floating aims to achieve, except through "a significant depreciation of the exchange rate as long as inflationary expectations-generating forces control it in a highly monopolized rentier economy."
He cautioned against the unpredictable nature of exchange rate movements in an "incomplete market" from a production standpoint in compensating for the required supply of goods and services. "No one will know what the new exchange rate resulting from floating will be," which will be accompanied by "a prior wave of inflationary expectations" whose direction is difficult to control, potentially prompting monetary policymakers to "intervene with excessive foreign reserves and unjustified squandering of foreign currency to impose stability."
Iraq's oil reserves, estimated at 145 billion barrels, are among the largest in the world, according to the World Bank. Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani recently announced that the country aims to surpass 160 billion barrels.
The Iraqi Dinar: To Float or Not to Float
"Iraq cannot float its exchange rate," says Abdul Rahman Al-Mashhadani, a professor of international economic relations, describing pro-floating advocates as "inexperienced."
A study by World Bank experts in recent years recommended "raising the exchange rate." Still, Al-Mashhadani emphasizes that such recommendations should be taken with caution, as the IMF is primarily concerned with economic development. Meanwhile, monetary policy recommendations should be followed by the IMF, not the World Bank.
In its latest review, the IMF praised the CBI's efforts in tightening monetary policy and strengthening its liquidity management framework.
Al-Mashhadani explained that floating the dinar would lead to "a spiral of high inflation rates," disproportionately affecting marginalized groups. He argues that such a decision cannot be made solely on the basis of monetary policy but must also consider the burdens it would place on citizens.
The professor highlighted to Al-Hurra that the experiences of other Arab countries do not necessarily translate to the Iraqi economy and warns that floating the dinar could result in an exchange rate of 5,000 dinars to the dollar, as the CBI "loses control over exchange rates and leaves them to float."
He feared floating the dinar could lead to "social problems" as "wages erode significantly," potentially pushing new population segments into poverty. While a small group of traders, politicians, and businessmen might benefit from the instability, Al-Mashhadani maintained that floating the dinar would ultimately mean "handing over control of exchange rates to the parallel market."
He added that floating the dinar would not be enough to achieve the desired monetary stability. Instead, the CBI would need to "print more local currency to meet market demand," and the government would need to increase salaries and social assistance packages.
Saleh, the Iraqi government advisor, attributed the "gap" in dinar-dollar exchange rates between the official and parallel markets to "external factors imposed by the Compliance Platform and administrative control restrictions on external transfer movements." He assured that this issue was unrelated to a central bank reserve shortage.
Saleh pointed out that Iraq's foreign currency reserves are at their highest level in history, covering imports for 16 months, compared to the global benchmark of three months.
According to a previous Agence France-Presse report, dollar remittances through official channels have increased significantly in Iraq as the country continues its financial sector reforms in line with international standards.
In late 2022, the Iraqi banking sector adopted the SWIFT electronic transfer system to improve dollar usage monitoring, ensure compliance with US sanctions on Tehran, and curb the growth of the informal economy.
Saleh acknowledged that the adopted financial standards had encouraged the emergence of a parallel currency market, attracting those seeking dollars outside official channels.
He also highlighted a distortion in the support prices of certain goods "on the part of fiscal policy," stating that this support often benefits the rich and poor equally without discrimination. Saleh characterized this as an additional, unrecorded real income, a legacy of the consumerist welfare state of the rentier economy.
Saleh said, "It is unreasonable that 90 percent of Iraq's population still receives food subsidies provided by the state as an extension of the 1990s economic blockade era, despite the changing living standards, lifestyles, the growing number of affluent people, and the expansion of the middle class."
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Walkingstick All these meetings that the CBI had with all these agencies that were helping them with their monetary reform are done. Al...
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