FRANK: "EXAMPLE OF THE CURRENCIES FOR THE BASKET"...........F26
The Iraqi Central Bank confirms to Shafaq News the provision of five foreign currencies as an alternative to the dollar for merchants
3/2/2024
The Central Bank of Iraq confirmed, on Saturday, that it has provided five alternative currencies to the dollar, for merchants to use in purchasing their goods from other countries using each country’s currency through the bank.
Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, Ammar Hamad, told Shafaq News Agency,
“The Central Bank provided other foreign currencies to Iraqi merchants, which are (the euro, the Chinese yuan, the Turkish lira, the Emirati dirham, and the Indian rupee).
He added,"These currencies have become available to merchants for the purpose of financing foreign trade. When a merchant imports goods from China, he can now pay the Iraqi dinar to the Iraqi bank, and through the bank, the amount will be paid to the Chinese company and factory in the Chinese currency."
Last week, the Central Bank of Iraq's total sales of hard currency in US dollars amounted to more than one billion dollars.
Shafaq News Agency correspondent stated that the Central Bank sold during the past week, and for a period of five days during which the auction was opened, one billion and 52 million and 796 thousand and 86 dollars, at a daily rate of 210 million and 559 million and 217 dollars, lower than what it recorded the previous week, when it amounted to one billion and 62. One million 587 thousand and 198 dollars.
The International Monetary Fund warns Iraq of its economy being exposed to oil price shocks
3/3/2024
On Sunday, the International Monetary Fund warned Iraq that its oil revenues would be affected by any decline in crude prices.
The IMF said that greater declines in oil prices or an extension of OPEC+ cuts could affect Iraq's financial and external accounts. He added, "Iraq needs to increase non-oil exports and government revenues, and reduce the economy's exposure to oil price shocks."
The IMF said that Iraq needs higher and more sustainable growth in the non-oil sector to accommodate the rapidly growing workforce, and that estimates indicate that Iraq’s real non-oil GDP will grow by 6% in 2023 after growth stopped in 2022.
Iraq.. Expectations of a decline in the dollar difference and a return to the official rate
3/2/2024
The economic expert, Safwan Qusay, expected today, Saturday, a decline in the dollar difference in Iraq and a return to the official rate after a series of financial and economic measures taken by the government of Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani
.
Safwan said {to Al-Furat News} that:“The mechanisms of the Central Bank previously did not know who was requesting the dollar from the informal market, and after the legalization of the financial transfer process, the demand for the dollar in the informal market began to enter the electronic platform.”
He added, "Gradually, with the control of border crossings and the facilitation of ordering, I believe that the difference will recede and return to the official price."
Qusay added, “The Central Bank is now investing in spreading financial inclusion and investment by Iraqi banks and spreading (POS) at the sector and private levels,” stressing that “all government units are currently required to issue credit cards and that purchasing committees purchase from economic units that have (POS).”
He explained, "Controlling the movement of the dinar and knowing where it comes from and where it moves will help in commercial regulation and enhance the level of international investor confidence in financial procedures. We also have the file of money laundering and terrorist financing, and currently with the expansion of the circle of financial inclusion, we will be able to know where the dinar goes."
He concluded by saying, "There are 70 trillion Iraqi dinars outside the banking system, and when they enter this system, it will turn into a productive dinar, which is what the Sudanese government is seeking to achieve."
According to its sales schedule, the Central Bank of Iraq set the cash selling price (1305) dinars per dollar.
Revitalizing Iraq's private sector: challenges, initiatives, and economic resilience
Shafaq News/ Iraq's private sector is in dire straits, with over 37,000 factories lying dormant—a stark reminder of the sector's decline since 2003.
As noted by observers, the absence of government initiatives to bolster this vital sector has led to its systematic destruction, alongside other key industries.
Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani has shown a renewed focus on revitalizing the private sector, with efforts to revive thousands of factories in recent years. Despite progress, challenges persist, with many factories still awaiting revival.
Deterioration and sanctions
Economic expert Omar al-Halbousi told Shafaq News Agency that the Iraqi private sector is in a state of severe decline, as the government has failed to devise plans to boost it. He noted that "the private sector's role in the national economy is minimal and shrinking due to various factors."
One of these factors, according to al-Halbousi, is the political interference in the private sector, which has led to the domination of some fields by a certain class of politicians who "have used the private sector to enrich themselves and launder money through their own institutions."
Another factor is the US sanctions that have hit the Iraqi private sector hard, as they have limited access to funding from private and public banks, and favored some parties over others in receiving government support.
Al-Halbousi also blamed the foreign interventions that "have aimed to destroy the Iraqi sectors, to keep Iraq as a market for their goods, without respecting the sovereignty and the national will of the Iraqis to develop their economy."
As a result of these factors, al-Halbousi pointed out, "The private sector has not been able to provide enough job opportunities for the Iraqi youth, and the wages have been low and unfair, despite the long working hours and the heavy burdens on the workers." adding that many "workers have been laid off without any justification."
Al-Halbousi also highlighted that the US sanctions on the banking sector have worsened the situation, as they have reduced the chances of finding jobs and increased the poverty rates.
Moreover, the expert said, "The private sector has suffered from the neglect of the large number of workers who have been left out of the economic cycle, and the low contribution to the domestic product, with the lack of innovation and creativity."
"The private sector is supposed to be the engine of economic growth, as it is more flexible and responsive to changes, but the governments since 2003 have contributed to its destruction, along with the rest of the sectors that have been systematically ruined."
The suffering of the Iraqi worker
Addressing the deterioration of Iraqi workers' circumstances necessitates coordinated efforts and intensified initiatives to implement tangible and effective plans.
On December 3, 2023, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani announced enforcing the retirement and social security law for private sector workers. This development followed the Iraqi parliament's approval of the law in May 2023, marking a crucial step in the government's pledged economic reforms aimed at safeguarding the rights of workers in this sector.
Rahim al-Ghanimi, the deputy head of the Federation of Trade Unions in Iraq, highlighted key aspects related to workers' conditions, stating that the minimum wage stands at 450,000 dinars per month, with an 8-hour workday scheduled for six days a week.
Al-Ghanimi emphasized that "legislation pertinent to the working class has encountered delays, resulting in Iraqi workers not receiving rights comparable to their counterparts in the Arab world, despite their diverse skill sets."
Al-Ghanimi pointed to the stagnation of numerous factories, companies, and industries, including the spinning and weaving factory in al-Kut and Babil, mixed and industrial sectors, and light industries."
"The absence of local production has led to a reliance on imports, with only restaurants and hotels currently operational."
Furthermore, Al-Ghanimi pointed out that "the influx of foreign labor facilitated by employment agencies has contributed to the displacement of Iraqi workers. Many of these foreign workers lack the technical expertise and experience of their Iraqi counterparts, posing a challenge to the local workforce."
Foreign labor
Sattar Dunbos, the head of the General Federation of Trade Unions in Iraq, told Shafaq News Agency, "The foreign labor file was chaotic." He estimated that "more than one million workers entered the country without any conditions, restrictions or supervision from the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs. This increased the unemployment rate in Iraq."
On the other hand, Ali Al-Tamimi, a legal expert, said, "Iraq did not have a specific law for foreign labor. The laws that applied were the Labor Law 37 of 2015 and the Residence of Foreigners Law 118 of 1978. These laws required foreign workers to have a work permit, passport, entry visa, and other security conditions. Violators could face a fine of up to 500 dollars and deportation by the investigation court."
He also told Shafaq News, "The unplanned presence of these workers, who numbered around one million, was like the influx of imported cars. It affected the economy, criminal security, unemployment, and money outflow." urging enacting a special law that would regulate their presence and deportation.
"Many of them worked without residence, and the only judicial solution was to send them back to their countries."
Investment obstacles
Hussein Al-Saibari, a member of the Parliamentary Committee of Economy and Investment, voiced concerns to Shafaq News Agency, stating that "various ministries, departments, and state institutions in Iraq have impeded investment opportunities in the country."
He specifically noted the challenges in obtaining approvals from the Ministry of Industry for establishing industrial factories.
Al-Saibari underscored the importance of government support for projects and investments that generate employment opportunities and keep financial resources circulating within Iraq rather than overseas.
Soran Omar, another Parliamentary Committee of Economy and Investment member, emphasized "the necessity for fostering growth in the Iraqi industrial sector, this could be achieved by providing adequate budgetary allocations to the Ministry of Industry, streamlining investment processes in the industry, and ensuring access to essential resources like fuel, electricity, and land for factories."
Omar also advocated for enacting a law governing partnerships between the public and private sectors to safeguard the interests of both parties involved. He urged "the government to prioritize economic security and enforce regulations protecting locally produced goods." Additionally, he called for stringent measures to regulate border crossings and combat smuggling activities that undermine Iraq's industrial and agricultural sectors.
Pointing out the historical roles of key government officials, Omar noted that "the former prime minister served as the Minister of Industry until 2018, while the current Minister of Industry held the position of Minister of Planning in the previous administration." He expressed optimism regarding the anticipated growth of the Iraqi industry under these circumstances.
Adel Akab, the head of the Federation of Iraqi Industries, stressed "the urgent need for establishing factories across various industrial sectors such as pharmaceuticals, food, construction, textiles, and electrical equipment, alongside services and production facilities."
Akab emphasized the significance of sectors like medicine and food while highlighting the demand for over 4 million housing units necessitating diverse construction materials. He stressed "the interconnectedness of different sectors, asserting that neglecting one could adversely affect the others, given their collective importance to the nation."
Akab pointed out Iraq's robust purchasing power and the populace's inclination towards domestically produced goods that align with their preferences. He commended the government's commitment to revitalizing the industry and implementing previously stalled decisions to stimulate economic growth and industrial development.
Government interest
In this context, Aqeel Raouf Ahmed, the head of the advisors at the Federation of Industries, affirmed that "the prime minister places significant reliance on the private sector to facilitate the construction of one million housing units, with a clear emphasis on prioritizing Iraqi products for outfitting these units."
Regarding the status of existing factories and efforts to revive dormant ones, Ahmed elaborated to Shafaq News that "there are approximately 67,000 registered factories, and over the past two years, including those previously operational, 30,000 factories have been brought back into production. However, there are still 37,000 factories that remain inactive."
He further stated, "There is a concerted effort to reactivate all these factories. During a recent meeting with Al-Sudani, requests were made to exempt raw materials from taxes to facilitate factory resumption, reduce electricity and fuel costs, protect locally manufactured goods, provide land ownership for industrialists, and waive accumulated taxes. Remarkably, all these requests were swiftly implemented within two days."
Highlighting the proactive stance taken, Ahmed mentioned that "decisions have been made and are now awaiting execution. The prime minister has expressed unwavering commitment to ensuring their implementation. Restarting the dormant factories will not only reactivate them but also catalyze the revival of other factories, as they are interdependent and mutually supportive. This, in turn, will result in increased employment opportunities and reduced unemployment rates."
Unemployment and the labor market
On the other hand, Abdul Zahra Al-Hindawi, the spokesperson for the Federal Ministry of Planning, highlighted that "the unemployment rate in 2021 soared to 16.5%, a significant increase compared to previous years, primarily attributed to the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in the halt of economic activities and developmental initiatives."
Speaking to Shafaq News agency, Al-Hindawi expressed optimism regarding a decline in unemployment figures, citing the measures implemented over the past two years, 2022 and 2023. These measures encompassed numerous job appointments, the resumption of various projects, and the initiation of new ventures, collectively generating thousands of employment opportunities for the youth. He concluded his remarks by stating, "A current survey is underway to ascertain the updated unemployment rates."
So, how long will us investors in the IQD have to wait before Iraq is allowed to liberate its own currency? Why do I say “now is the time”?
We know they are completely out of Chapter VII sanctions since December 2022, and so why not treat them as such?
We know they want the Iraq funds (nearly USD 115+ billion) released from the NY banks and put in their custody to do what they want with it. They are tired of being bullied by the U.S. with their own money.
We know they have plans for yet more Sovereign Funds to invest their reserves.
We know they are making agreements now for “currency swaps” for trade with Iran, China, Turkey, Kuwait, Emirates, and many EU countries as Iraq will no longer be using any US dollars in Iraq as of January 1st 2024.
We know that the IMF is now working on the final stages of pulling together agreements to build a new basket of six (6) currencies to re-peg the IQD.
More pressure from Iraqi economics advisors to the government to use a “basket” of currencies for the new dinar peg. This is the IMF plan of 2011 all along.
We know since January they have undertaken a massive “de-dollarization” program and told it should have taken 6 years but they decided to do it in 1 year (2023). Why such a hurry?
We know the value of the IQD right now does exceed even pre-1991 era but still at 1/6 of a penny for a rate? The value won’t go up, its already there. Get it? Why is it being suppressed? Iraq needs to see a rate reflecting the TRUE VALUE. What is holding it back?
We know Iraq now pumps 2/3 more oil than in pre-1991 era.
Iraq also has announced 132+ tons of GOLD reserves.
We know they are pushing this year alone, more than any other year since 2005, for the passing of Oil and Gas law. Why?
We know for a FACT that it is the U.S. through the Treasury Dept. direction that will NOT give sign-off to allow the reinstatement. Why?
Finally, the CBI has told us many times already that January is the most opportune time to reinstate for accounting purposes, since it begins their new FISCAL year (for accounting purposes).
Imminent World Trade Organization full accession
Just be patient, the reinstatement is coming and I firmly believe from what we now know there is a very strong likelihood we NOT are going to be at the banks in early 2024 but there is still strong hope for early part of the new year. There is no guarantees and so no one really knows a date when the event will occur. Let’s just follow the FACTS and see where they lead us…okay? Iraq is full of surprises and so anything is possible.
Just be patient, the reinstatement is coming and I firmly believe from what we now know there is a very strong likelihood we NOT are going to be at the banks in early 2024 but there is still strong hope for early part of the new year. There is no guarantees and so no one really knows a date when the event will occur. Let’s just follow the FACTS and see where they lead us…okay? Iraq is full of surprises and so anything is possible...
