Saturday, January 27, 2024
An Analytical Economic Vision For The National Security Strategy, 27 JAN
An Analytical Economic Vision For The National Security Strategy
Economy News – Baghdad Samir Al-Nusairi, Advisor to the Association of Banks introduction
Most of the countries of the world have national security strategies that adopt plans to build stability and community building for their people. The most prominent of these plans are related to ensuring food security, health security, and community security as basic priorities and a method for building a safe, stable, and developed society.
This, by the way, is what was clearly emphasized and referred to by Iraq’s Vision 2030 and the poverty reduction strategy. And the government curricula of all successive governments.
The basis for achieving this is the strength and solidity of the pillars on which the national economy is based, and the economy is the main focus of the national security strategy.
The relationship between the economy and national security
Iraq is currently going through an important and sensitive stage due to the political, security and economic conditions, and it can be identified in particular with regard to political, security and economic variables at the level of countries around the world and at the level of the geographical region, related to instability in global oil prices and the expectation of a new global spread of one of the Corona variants and the global economic recession.
In addition to the repercussions of the economic reality in Iraq and the great efforts being made by the government for financial and banking reform, regulating trade financing, controlling exchange rate stability, and shifting from a cash economy to a digital economy. The economic reality, according to official data, also indicates a continuation
Unemployment and poverty rates are still higher than economically permissible limits, despite the tireless efforts made by the government a year ago to reduce the above two phenomena.
All of these challenges led to the government taking effective measures to combat cases of financial and administrative corruption, alleviate the suffering of the Iraqi people from lack of services, and move towards achieving food security by developing the food basket within the ration card, which means that addressing economic problems is the basis and the first link that must be adopted to build the strategy. The decree is for national security in its general sense, which must achieve the basis for the stability and economic development of Iraq.
In addition, what must be taken into consideration is the study and analysis of the confusion that accompanied the process of change after 2003 and the lack of a unified economic vision and methodology for the shape of the new state and how the economic structure should be in it, as confusion between a centralized economy and wishes for a transition to a market economy led to circumstances
A complex internal situation hindered the development process in Iraq, despite the passage of twenty years of change, and the matter has become more complex and difficult with the changes taking place in the region and the world.
Therefore, we believe that building the foundations of the national security strategy in its comprehensive sense, with a focus on the economic aspect, must result in achieving security, stability, and economic development in a way that contributes to achieving the well-being of society, and that it must be effective and implementable in the current circumstances that Iraq is experiencing.
Therefore, I hope many citizens and from various levels of government Political, economic, university professors, civil society organizations, youth, women, and professionals must contribute to its preparation.
The magnitude of the challenges requires a firm stand by all governmental, political and popular actors in order to protect Iraq and sustain the construction of its economy according to the realistic data that is below the level of everyone’s attention.
Therefore, we see beyond doubt that the economic reforms announced by the Prime Minister in the government curriculum, in accordance with the axes concerned with security and the economy, must Adopting it as an economic strategy to achieve national security focuses on Article 25 of the Constitution and other articles related to the state guaranteeing security and a decent life for the individual and the family and ensuring social justice among all classes and sects of the Iraqi people.
This strategy must also include a realistic application of the axes of the government program in its economic and security dimension and most importantly. From that claims
Legitimate efforts to eliminate financial and administrative corruption, address unemployment and poverty, and return Iraq’s money stolen from the corrupt.
Basic economic principles of the national security strategy
1- The sovereignty, integrity and territorial integrity of Iraq.
2- Building a sound national economy with multiple resources.
3- The private sector plays the pivotal role in leading the market.
4- Providing food, medicine, environmental, and social security for citizens
5- Securing a decent life for the individual and the family.
6-Reform and develop the financial and banking sector and increase its contribution to economic development.
7- The state guarantees social justice for citizens.
8- Reform and develop good governance institutions to provide the best services to citizens.
9-Information security and transparency in economic data and indicators.
Future senators
We note through the analysis of the basic and economic principles above that building a sound economy, which with its final results achieves prosperity and well-being for society, is the basis for building a national security strategy that goes beyond protecting internal security to protecting the homeland and ensuring its safety from external enemies.
Therefore, we affirm here that strengthening national security at home and abroad requires All relevant governmental and political parties, the private sector, and economic experts study, discuss, and analyze the challenges and reform measures for a secure Iraq and a strong economy.
Therefore, we propose the following:
First: Accelerating and activating the implementation of the axes mentioned in the government curriculum by developing executive and applied policies and mechanisms that shorten the time to develop productive economic sectors and diversify sources of non-oil revenues in directions that achieve what is stated in these axes in their detailed aspects, and setting a time limit for the implementation of each article of the aforementioned axes. To it above. Not exceeding 3 years.
Secondly, the government forms the Supreme Council for Economic Affairs, which consists of experts from the government and the private sector, in order to carry out economic reform, the first step of which is banking reform, in a way that enhances the role of the Central Bank of Iraq and the ministries concerned with economic affairs (finance, agriculture, industry, planning, oil, and electricity), in a way that enhances effective coordination.
And harmony between fiscal and monetary policies and to replace the Ministerial Council for the Economy and the Economic Reform Cell.
Third: Activate and establish executive mechanisms for economic reform procedures by supporting, developing and involving the private sector in economic decision-making, legislatively and institutionally, by activating the Private Sector Development Council in accordance with the vision of the Private Sector Development Strategy (2014-2030) prepared by the relevant expert committees in the Council of Ministers with the United Nations Development Programme.
Fourth: United Nations, focusing on what was covered in its three stages and actually starting to implement it, setting time limits for putting it into effect, and determining the elements of implementation, taking into account the circumstances that Iraq is currently going through, and forming an advisory body affiliated with the Council from advisors to organizations and private sector federations that are members of the Council.
Fourth - Motivating banks to truly work by expanding banking financing in accordance with the Central Bank’s initiatives to finance small, medium, housing and investment projects, and activating, applying and defining flexible mechanisms and instructions for implementation,
while setting clear foundations that guarantee the transparency of data and entities that have been lent by government and private banks, and establishing proactive oversight during implementation and after implementation. The entities benefiting from these loans should serve the central goal of allocating them to accelerate the economic cycle, reduce unemployment, develop small and medium enterprises, and contribute to development. 01/25/2024 - https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=39809
"RV UPDATE" BY MARKZ, 27 JAN
MarkZ
[via PDK]
Very quiet out of Iraq...and quiet on the banking side.
Warplanes and complete American control… “information” reveals “accurate” details about Ain al-Assad, 27 JAN
Warplanes and complete American control… “information” reveals “accurate” details about Ain al-Assad
Information / Anbar..
On Friday, the former director of the Jubba Municipality Department, one of the sheikhs and notables of Anbar Governorate, Qatari Al-Samarmad, revealed precise details about the Ain Al-Assad base, while pointing out that 80% of the total area of the base is occupied by American forces.
Al-Samarmad said in a statement to Al-Ma’louma Agency that “80% of the total area of the Ain Al-Assad base in the Al-Baghdadi district of Hit district, west of Anbar, is occupied by American forces after increasing the number of its forces to reach about 5,000, including soldiers and advisors,” confirming “the presence of about 150 warplanes and naming them.” In addition to weapons, ammunition, smart bombs, missiles, and light and heavy military equipment.”
He added, “The American forces have begun to control Ain al-Assad base despite the presence of security forces from the Jazeera Operations Command,” noting that “these forces occupy a small area that does not compare with the large area that the American forces own after they carried out expansion operations that included areas Another for the base building.
He pointed out, “The American forces have a landing strip for military and civilian aircraft, and there is no intention to evacuate these forces from the Ain al-Assad base building at the present time.”
almaalomah.me
Friday, January 26, 2024
"RV UPDATE" BY KAPERONI, 27 JAN
Kaperoni
Article "US and Iraq agree to start talks to end presence of US-led coalition"
The dinar either rises gradually over time as Iraq's economy prospers reducing the money supply or Parliament will authorize the deletion of zeros reducing trillions to billions and a LOP. Not what we want to see.
there is no way Iraq can RV the Iraqi dinar with [120] trillion dinar in circulation. No country could afford. Iraq's total net worth is only around $16 trillon dollars.
There is no significant RV of the Iraqi dinar. And if the dinar does ever go up in value, it will be based on the success and growth of Iraq's own economy. There are no shortcuts.
Article: "Ali Al-Alaq, the current governor of the Central Bank of Iraq confirms that Iraq's money supply exceeds 100 trillion dinar."
If and when the Central Bank decides to increase the value of the Iraqi dinar more than likely it will be based on some type of gradual float as a result of the success and growth of Iraq's own economy and an increase in GDP.
I hope each and every one of you find success in this investment...It may take time. It may be another 1 to 5 years. I certainly hope not but I believe things could happen quickly over the next 36 to 48 months. It all depends on Iraq.
...We all know things don't happen fast in Iraq. Iraq has a lot of work to do in order to succeed. The first of which is pass over 100 stalled laws through Parliament to encourage investment in Iraq. And at the same time the Central Bank of Iraq has to continue reforms to the banking system, digitalization, and apply monetary tools to meet compliance .
A country's exchange rate is the result of the success and growth of their own economy. When you have a weak economy, you have a weak exchange rate. Until Iraq passes laws, diversifies their economy and increases their GDP, nothing will happen with the dinar. When Iraq passed their tripartite 3 year budget a few months back, it created the conditions for them to diversify and privatize their economy over the next three years. Now Iraq is on the clock to accomplish such.
There's a new article out that many people are translating and confusing. They are not talking about an RV in Iraq, they are talking about the spread being in compliance early next year.
Just a reminder the spread is the difference between the official rate and the market rate or street rate and has been way out of whack recently in Iraq. This article simply means they expect the spread to come down closer to the official rate early next year. There is no RV.
A very important statement was made back in 2020 by the prime minister's economic advisor Mohamed Salah who used to be Deputy Governor of the CBI under Shabibi. He stated that Iraq's entire wealth including all minerals in the ground amounts to only $16 trillion dollars. Knowing that information one can then determine that there is no way a significant RV could ever occur with over 90 trillion dinar in circulation. It doesn't make sense...
They...have to have the dinar stabilized within the country and within the 2% rule mandated by the IMF in order to then accept IMF article VIII and begin to float the dinar which would raise its value based on supply and demand. All of these processes and or steps required time.
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2023/12/rv-update-by-kaperoni-10-dec_0650267841.html
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2023/12/rv-update-by-kaperoni-18-dec.html
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