Iraq’s Local Elections: A Dance of Power and Politics
Recent local elections in Iraq have ushered in a new era of political maneuvers, with significant shifts in power dynamics witnessed across the nation. The preliminary results reveal a consolidation of power by key political figures and the emergence of new players, reflecting the changing political landscape of the country.
Consolidation of Power in Anbar and Basra
Former Parliament Speaker Mohammed Al-Halbousi and Governor Asaad Al-Eidani have asserted their political dominance in the provinces of Anbar and Basra respectively. Al-Halbousi’s lists, including ‘Taqadum’ and ‘Anbar is Our Identity’, secured a resounding victory with 11 out of 16 seats in Anbar. Similarly, Al-Eidani’s ‘Design’ list clinched 12 out of 22 seats in Basra. This political triumph allows them to govern without the need for alliances, as per Iraqi law, which necessitates an absolute majority for executive and council positions.
Shifts in Political Landscape
In the provinces of Karbala and Wasit, Governors Nasif Al-Khattabi and Mohammed Jamil Al-Mayahi also achieved commendable results, albeit with the possibility of needing additional coalition building to ensure a majority. Outside these provinces, the road to power is expected to be fraught with lengthy and challenging negotiations, reminiscent of those for forming the federal government.
In the central and southern provinces with a Shiite majority, the main competition is projected between the ‘Nabnii’ coalition, which includes Badr Organization leader Hadi Al-Amiri and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq’s Qais al-Khazali, and the ‘State of Law’ coalition led by Nouri al-Maliki. The ‘Coordinating Framework’ forces, currently holding the largest block in the Iraqi Parliament, are anticipated to dominate most governments in central and southern Iraq.
Implications of the Electoral Outcomes
The recent elections have also reignited debates on identity and power balances, influencing political negotiations for forming provincial councils. Observers attribute the electoral success of the ‘Coordinating Framework’ forces to the boycott by Muqtada al-Sadr’s Sadrist Movement. The United States, in response, seeks cooperation with Iraq to end attacks on American forces in Iraq and Syria.
The shifts in power dynamics, as evidenced by the elections, are indicative of the evolving political climate in Iraq. Traditional parties like the Dawa Party and Bashaer have seen a reduction in support, while newer regional projects and youth forces have emerged as significant players. These changes present both challenges and opportunities for the nation’s political future.
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